New data: Interest rates, super returns and more

Some interesting information and data has been released this week which I would like to discuss with you.Variable mortgage rates will probably rise soonInterest rates that apply to interbank lending have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. These benchmark rates are used to set the banks borrowing costs. This benchmark rate has increased significantly compared to the RBA’s cash rate as depicted in the chart below (from Montgomery). Essentially, this means it costs more for the banks to borrow. Between approximately one quarter and one third of the banks mortgages are funded through facilities that are linked to these short-term indicator rates. Therefore, it has been estimated that the banks cost of funds have increased by circa 0.10% p.a.Various second tier lenders such as ING, BoQ, IMB, Citibank, Bank SA, and ME Bank have already increased variable rates.Pressure will be on the Big 4 banks to follow. However, I suspect that they haven’t increased yet because they are worried about the inevitably bad press that it would attract – particularly for the bank to move first. That said, if these higher costs persist then they might have to lift variable interest rates sooner rather than later (probably by around 0.10% p.a.).Can you afford principal and interest repayments?There has been a bit of press lately about a possible looming credit risk i.e. interest only loans converting to principal and interest repayments which might put negative pressure on borrowers cash flow.If you have a loan on interest only repayments that is approaching its expiry date, you have a few options. You should consider whether you are better off with principal and interest repayments – see this blog. If not, speak to us and we can investigate whether you can roll over to a new 5-year interest only term with your existing or a new lender. Do it sooner rather than later to avoid the risk of being caught by any future changes or credit tightening.The Reserve Bank (RBA) and interest ratesThe main thing holding back the RBA from increasing the cash rate is the rather ‘benign’ inflation rate – including the very low wage inflation rate. The inflation (CPI) numbers for the June quarter were released yesterday and, whilst inflation is only just within the RBA’s target band of 2% and 3%, the main driver of the recent increase was petrol prices. Overall, there’s nothing in the CPI numbers that suggests the RBA will increase interest rates this year or possibly next year.The best performing super funds for the 2018 financial yearResearcher, Chant West this week released its list of top-performing super funds for the 2017/18 financial year.I have been very pleased with the performance of the low-cost, indexed model portfolio that we use to invest our clients super. It has retuned 11.52% p.a. over the past year after investment fees.The median returns by industry funds was 10.3% p.a. compared to 9.0% p.a. for retrial funds. This confirms the Productivity Commissions findings that retail super funds (such as AMP, Colonial, BT and MLC) are typically characterised by higher-fees and lower-returns. If your super is invested with a retail fund, then my advice is to find a better super fund (but get advice before you do as you must consider exit fees, timing,My new book is available for pre-order now: Pre-ordering the book will help me get it into bookstores. So please do me a favour - please consider pre-ordering now - links and pre-order bonus are available here: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at [email protected]. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.