New Poll Shows Foulkes with 20-Point Lead Over McKee. Salve's Katie Sonder Breaks It Down

Send us Fan MailBill Bartholomew talks with Katie Sonder, Associate Director and Fellow at the Salve Regina University Pell Center, about the center’s August 2026 Voices of Value poll and what it says about Rhode Island’s Democratic and Republican primary races. The conversation focuses on the headline McKee-Folkes result, the unusually high number of undecided voters, and how academic polling can fill a gap left by shrinking local media polling.Bill Bartholomew frames the poll, questions the methodology, and argues that academic polling is becoming more important as traditional outlets poll less often. Katie Sonder explains the survey design, the likely-voter screen, the two-step question process for undecided respondents, and why the Pell Center launched the project in the first place.Key topicsIn this episode, the main headline is the Democratic gubernatorial primary poll showing Helena Folkes ahead of incumbent Governor Dan McKee, 48% to 28%.Katie Sonder says the most surprising finding is the size of the undecided bloc, especially in down-ballot races like Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, where nearly half of likely voters are unsure.Sonder explains the poll’s two-question method for undecideds: respondents first pick among candidates, then are asked again if they have to choose.The Pell Center’s Voices of Value project is designed to track Rhode Island views on state issues and national issues, including democracy, polarization, media habits, legislation, and bridge reconstruction.Bill and Katie discuss the broader role of academia in polling and journalism as local media budgets shrink and fewer outlets produce their own statewide polls.Sonder says the Pell Center sees the poll as a public good and a bridge between the university and the community.On the Democratic side, Sonder points to crowded fields and lower name recognition as reasons for uncertainty in races like Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.Bill notes that in the Lieutenant Governor race, Sabina Matos and Zay Collin are near the top, but the undecided share remains very high.In the Attorney General race, Kim Ahern leads the pack, but 46% of voters are still unsure.The Senate discussion turns to the three-way race involving Jack Reed, Connor Burbridge, and Dr. Luis Daniel Munoz, with Bill arguing that Burbridge’s 12% reflects real campaign momentum.On the Republican side, Sonder explains that the smaller sample size means a larger margin of error, but Elaine Poirino still holds a notable lead over Aaron and Jukian.Bill emphasizes the transparency of the Pell Center’s materials, including the report, crosstabs, methodology, and survey questions.Timestamps00:00 - New Pell Center poll and the McKee-Folkes Democratic primary headline00:44 - Katie Sonder on the biggest surprise: the undecided vote02:30 - How the poll’s two-step undecided question works04:49 - Why the Pell Center launched Voices of Value06:03 - Academia, journalism, and the shrinking local polling ecosystem07:14 - Why the Pell Center sees polling as a public service10:48 - How Katie thinks about reliability and academic rigor11:30 - Why down-ballot races have so many undecided voters12:40 - Using the poll to inform voters and candidate research13:10 - Jack Reed race, Connor Burbridge, and campaign momentum14:10 - Lieutenant governor race read: Matos, Zay Collin, and weak showings14:40 - Republican primary polling challenges and Elaine Poirino’s lead15:28 - Sample size, margin of error, and confidence on the GOP side16:44 - Why the Republican race remains too fluid to call18:39 - Where to find the report, crosstabs, methodology, and survey questions19:24 - Transparency, expertise, and why the poll matters in the civic landscape Support the showFollow Bill on Instagram and YouTube