Welcome to the Fantasy Flip Mollers podcast with your host Andy Holloway Jason Moore and Mike Wright Welcome in Saturday July 20th the fantasy footballers. Are you writing on the date Jason? Yeah? Wait, this is how he learns the date.
This is the 20th when the show starts. That's crazy Where is calendar cuz that's later than you thought we're so close we're so close to August to every day shows To football and drafts. Are you ready for the everyday shows? Like have you been?
I am I am totally ready I did my I did my fasting and I'm prepped. Okay. Well, I mean it's coming quick We've got camp and then we got preseason and then I begin my title defense in our League of Records I mean you got to be looking forward to that. I remember the feeling which have we talked about our Draft you mean the fact that our League of Records is happening the day of kickoff.
That's what I'm talking about We are giving that a go this first time ever like scheduling As you all know scheduling your draft an online draft can be extremely difficult add in that it's an in-person draft and people are traveling Even harder while we decided to take it up a notch and say This is what it's gonna be so everyone figure this out We decided on the draft last year of we're gonna draft that Thursday that's look when I guess when you run the company We can we call it half day and we're bringing everybody in and we're drafting that day having the big draft party and then Seeing players that night it is so exciting. I'm curious what does it do to strategy because there's gonna be people who just You think they just draft people are gonna reach on ADP to get a player in that game because we're watching it together Yeah as a League. Yep, that will be fun I'm so we just need to make sure we get through the draft before the kickoff. I love that Mike's like all do a half day No work that day at all.
I was trying to say face for the people. We'll have to record a show. That's a holiday Yeah, I mean it'll be fun. It'll be record the show and then hey, it's done.
Hey is me. I'll and I've got a solo episode today I'm hoping for a better year in dynasty. Is that a good impression now? It was spot on.
Yeah, it's better than his other voice Sorry, I love you Divisional breakdowns were into the NFC today taking on the NFC North. So that'll be fun. We got a great quick question I'm excited to talk through it's a team question So we'll get to that shortly the live show in Los Angeles coming up very soon as well Jason once we hit August that'll be here before you know It Saturday August 24th at Palace Theater ballers live.com for that and of course the ultimate draft get available right now Dominate your draft prep up get ready. You know if you want to overcome all of the tilt and the tilt potential that comes with draft day Which it's real everybody's got a great plan and then you know pick or two in you start to freak out jump into the ultimate draft kit The best the best thing you can do there is just kind of learn like we try to equip you with that tool to make decisions in the context of your league And league format it's a lot different than it was 20 years ago when everybody played in the exact same league with the exact same type of format Limited scoring options Everybody plays in nuanced leagues now and our job on this show every day and with the ultimate draft get is to equip you to be able To make contextual decisions for your team which means things like the Upside and risk ranking so when you make picks in the first few rounds you are balancing your team out with upside with risk with opportunity with depth Mm-hmm and you're drafting based on tears You're taking a look at and making sure that it's not just like oh this player's ranked three spots I have that player, but it's like oh this player's basically the same as five players later Let me go to a different position.
It's a it's a good tool If you haven't used it in the past it I mean we here ever year how much that is help people so yeah check it out Well the draft get that come and just to the customizable settings side you do import your league settings so that your rankings are specific to your league And your league contacts so it helps you a little bit better our quick question of the day is simple it is which team do you believe will surprise? For fantasy football we are in the middle of the divisional breakdowns. There's a couple teams on today's show I thought about going with me too, but I feel like we're gonna talk about those teams so I pump the brakes That was like one lonely chicken with one breath left But I you know I will go with a team that we've talked about already on the AFC divisional breakdown shows you are a madman I'm gonna go with Tennessee that would be surprising Tennessee is a Team that look every year. I'm gonna repeat myself all off season There's a handful of teams that you think are going to be terrible that provide not just medium But tremendous fantasy football value last year Drafting a Houston Texan was not something anybody wanted to do or try to do and there was value top to bottom on that roster From the wide receiver cord that surprised to a rookie quarterback to a tight end to Devin Singletary It was this year's CJ Sprout according to Andrew Holloway is Will Levis honestly you heard it here I don't mind that calm.
I don't mind that calm because you've been the one all offseason talking about CJ Sprout numbers weren't really that wild I think that those kind of numbers could be put up by will Levis you have a an offensive coordinator there bringing this You know since the south with a high pass rate over expectation with two running backs that catch the football when I look at surprise teams for fantasy The fact that they're gonna pivot to a pass heavy offense with two borderline elite wide receivers with Hopkins at this stage in his career Calvin Ridley two running backs taking cash with football Todges a spears and Tony Pollard and a They're not a bad defense. They're middle of the pack defense So I'm not worried about their philosophy being the old school of rabble We're gonna try to hit you in the mouth and then run the football down your throat So to me and yes, I'm gonna include will Levis in that pack of five names Then I think I think will let us will be streamed by people this year I think I think we'll start to enter the territory of the ancient James Winston days at minimum of like look This guy's going to chuck it down the field and he's got players I'm going to beat people down the field You know that is he didn't have Calvin Ridley last year and you know now he's got a philosophy and right he took over during part of last year this is a big step in opportunity. No, I actually really like I love making fun of takes but at the same time I it's really it's a really smart take if you look at where ADP is and we know every year that there are teams like this that are just Undervalued offensively and then they take a step forward There's a lot of reasons, you know the Calvin Ridley Tony Pollard change of head coach Year two for the quarterback There are so many of those like those can all be yellow flags Like if this was a really good offense the year before you could be worried but they weren't a great offense And so I like that let me throw one more stat out there Kyle mentioned this and I'm not predicting Tennessee What win the division but just to show the kind of turnover in the NFL since 2015 at least one team drafting inside the top 10 Has won their division the same year. Yeah, I mean, that's nine straight years of somebody in the top 10 making the jump first to first Yeah, I'm gonna go next I might you you you took the team that I was really close to taking here But I want to highlight the part after you though.
Well, but that's I'm saying I was really I was between these two teams So I obviously already love your take for me. It's the Chargers the Chargers are Maybe maybe it won't surprise you but it will certainly surprise the average draft position of all these players because they are not draft They are drafted like they are Like a bottom five offense right now There's a lot made of the loss of weapons and a lot made of this is a team that wants to come in and run the ball with Harbaugh and Greg Roman lad my conquies their first wide receiver And I'm seeing him being drafted wide receiver 41 he is in the eighth round is the eighth round is their first player drafted on sleeper Gus Edwards is in the 10th round Justin Herbert is in the tip like you're paying nothing the first player on the Chargers the first Drafted in the eighth round that's correct in on a team with almost what like projected 10 wins I think they are eight and a half some platforms have him at nine and a half But yeah, this is a team that has a good coach. This is a team that has a great quarterback No one is saying you know despite the the lacking of playoff victories. Justin Herbert is a great quarterback You have also an offensive coordinator here when I look at history and things that are repeatable I like finding an offensive coordinator who has ten seasons as an OC and seven of his ten years have been a top ten scoring offense When I look at my team by team projections in the UK I've got the Chargers one of the most efficient offices on a yards per play basis Because I think this is going to be a hyper efficient team And so this is where I think at the end of the year we're gonna look back and be like man Gus Edwards was a 10th round pick lab.
I'm a conky was an eight or who that's the hard part right? Maybe it's Palmer. Maybe it's lab. Maybe it's huge like if I just gave you one for free to pick from the roster That's the differentiator between Tennessee and and the Chargers like the Chargers are probably better football team We know I mean I think we all would acknowledge that Tennessee I can point at four guys and say those are the four guys that I would take the shot on I'm not sure who to take the shot on and in Los Angeles Yeah, I mean I for me my belief in in lab being the primary target It's easier, but obviously I don't think it's bad to take a shot on any of them because you're not paying a lot and one of these wide receivers Will be irrelevant, you know, 36 wide receiver for sure take a late round shot at a surprise Yeah, Palmer quit and Johnson the team is going to be better than how we're currently I think that's who you should I think that should be your do well.
I will take him off the waiver wire for free Oh, man. I will I will pay you a lot to make quit and Johnson your mind a lot while they talk I've got a golden ticket here Andy. I could change your opinion on anything. Okay.
All right my guys surprise team for fantasy You know either direction by the way if you if you want I went with a positive one Okay, and it's it's the Seattle Seahawks I think that their offense will be better than they are currently being valued like the Chargers where they have a higher Drafted player in DK Metcalf who is let me check it real quick He is going as the wide receiver 23 in the fourth round meanwhile. Let's see where did DK finish he was The wide receiver 16 last year so in the year where everything was felt like it was terrible for Seattle he was still the wide receiver 16 18 the year before that so they're not being valued that way and There is a way that you can look at the stats and go It was they just missed like Genos Genosmith's yards per game passing us for game very similar 10 yards difference per game He's adjusted completion percentage. That's when you take out throwaways and things that were the wide receivers fault Basically identical to what he had two years ago when he led the league in completion percentage They were 11th in yards per play but they dropped from 9th as a scoring offense down to 17th because they were 32nd in time of Possession and they have made huge sweeping changes More specifically to me that the OCJ so what you brought him up Ryan Grub from the University of Washington many times like And it's the second year of JSN. It's They are they are fascinating to me of like we've seen their quarterback be more than competent.
We've seen to be very good DK Maybe not everyone looks at him and says that's a superstar, but DK Metcalf is regarded as a very good wide receiver in the NFL Tyler Lockett had it down year. Yep. They still brought him back right? He got it Yeah, he got it.
I got it. I got a nice team So I got a good deal. He got a contract extension It's your number two for the first receiver drafted in the 2022 draft like it's so wild of who did come into the year injured last year Yeah, yeah, the risk for a full season and it's like this should be a really high-powered offense And yet we are the drafters are not treating anything like that. We've been here before we see out two years ago They were one of the most underrated they were the under one of the most underrated groups that benefited fantasy players the most when they took a shot Like it's not impossible, but which by the way, we did a mock draft episode on Thursday You can go back and listen to it Kyle the Borgoggan participated with us Tyler Lockett was either I believe it was the last round of that draft and I mean you're seeing him I mean we were in Scotty fish.
Yep, which I think we took a lot of it. We did we did it was like in the 59th round That's what I like and so but there's a world where like three weeks into the season. We're all shaking ahead gun Oh, yeah, Tyler Lockett is just the same yeah Yeah, you're like a player he had a bad year So and he's still good and on top of all those things like where's you know like Tennessee has a I think they have a middle-of-the-road defense The Chargers could it be a middle-of-the-road defense? I think Seattle's defense is gonna be stinky-doo and you get a high-powered offense and you know bad defense brother That is where it is at yes.
We do root for bad defenses Sorry, so 30th and yards allowed and dead last and first down to loud if they want to continue that yeah Thank you We will take a break we'll come back with our division breakdown please and thank you. No, I believe was peace. Oh, yeah It was real. That is what I heard.
It was please, but you said please. I hear peace. I thought you said peace I heard yeah, I thought it was one of those more I also said you said peace all right. We have it.
You know, let's check. Take a little one. Oh, no hold on from my heart It was please you weren't you weren't telling me you do you believe you didn't say peace? I am saying I Attempted to please it's my goal.
You missed a whole letter. Well, I don't have to breathe I genuinely thought this was another one of the more household like yeah, I did two phrases like his little no Take my biggies free. All right, let's jump into the division breakdown Let's get divisional Welcome to the NFC we are starting with the NFC North Looking at a very fun division I think the breakdown with lots of fantasy football players that are gonna be relevant this year taking a look at you know players Had an it onto these rosters and leaving rookies coaches offensive philosophies and where we see this division at the end of the season so You know Detroit was a story of last year 12 and 5 green bay at 9 and 8 the emergence of Jordan Love Minnesota went through injury Nightmares with Jeff Jefferson and cousins going down cousins out the door and in Chicago, you know number one pick in the draft Well, that was the trade it for correct. Yes, they had the opportunity to I mean That's the headline for them is Caleb Williams arrives Justin feels the parts and there's a lot of optimism right like the I mean spoiler alert for later in the show but Coach of the Year odds the number one most likely coach of the year right now.
It's Mahoney. No, it's Matt Eberfluice Oh, so there's expectations there throughout this division and we'll start with the talk of the town last year Detroit 12 and 5 They were up at 17 by 17 points at halftime in the NFC title game. Yeah, this was They were right on the cusp of the Super Bowl still a hugely successful year and I'm just gonna tell you right now like If this wasn't the division we were covering today I would have talked about him in that in that quick question about the team to surprise because I I think that Detroit is going to be so Unbelievably good this year. Oh, so you think they're going to surprise because their expectations are sky high for that I just think yes because I think there are opportunities for surprise I mean we got so we have the Titan one in it the port is the one they get right?
I'm in Roswell like why does he for five maybe Gibbs is right around there too Well, I just think you're gonna have upper echelon performances in particular from Gibbs golf and the surprise performance from Jameson Williams in a full season Okay in an offense that I think will be the best in football I mean we have talked extensively about the beginning of the season for Jared golf and what this offense should be able to do This is the fourth in points per game last year eighth in pace of play. They had a top 10 fancy quarterback last year They had two of the top 12 fancy running backs. They have a projected win total of 10 and a half Going into this year. I am just like it's coming together And they have the coaching staff to keep things yeah much like Shanahan and like San Francisco We are no longer surprised when they just do what they do right the machine keeps going I am expecting that sans injuries from Detroit They fell short of their goal last year Ben Johnson the office of coordinator who had overchurch from lots teams.
He's on the way back the defense in my opinion will improve I am just I'm enamored with Detroit from a fantasy perspective from from an NFL perspective I completely completely get it and really fantasy. I'm you know I'm a big fan as well. There's a team that's favored at 13 of their 17 games and they have probably one of the the Greatest total number of continuity players coaches like this is the same team running it back. They just paid Jared off 200 plus million dollars Yeah, they've got the second most expensive offensive line in the league which is currently going into this season PFF's number one ranked offensive line and Jared off is Like he is not the world's best quarterback But if you protect him and give him a pocket he's going to sure look like he's up there with the best of the best And so yeah, I do totally get it, but their defense I think will be improved That will you maybe help the running game Maybe hurt the passing in a little bit and there are some question marks here from fantasy You said you I don't know if you said you expect James and Williams to take a step forward Absolutely, but I mean what does that mean a step because a step forward?
Maybe he has 500 no fantasy relevance beyond the world of do I start Josh Reynolds? They're one departure like a meaningful a meaningful role with meaningful production Not top 12. I mean, I'm just talking about a regular Expectation going into the week that James and Williams is gonna be a part of the gameplay Which I think can happen and I do think I mean I know that you're paying a premium on Sam LaPorter I think it's very possible that Sam LaPorter delivers on that like the reason we don't like him isn't because we don't think Sam LaPorter is good It's just because you have to pay so much so you're making a bet about repeating Especially in the touchdown. It's very difficult to do year to year And so you're saying hey, I don't want to take that risk when I can get value on Mark Andrews and get value on Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kade and his other guy return on your investment is Lower because it's this same report.
Let's say he finishes again as as the tight end one is he Blowing away the number two tight end by like multiple points per game I don't think so Was he asked probably not but if the number two tight end isn't the one you thought that it was going to be then it might not matter You know I'm saying like if he blows away the next two or three it would have to be the heat up to beat out Kelsey Yes, bride and Andrews by Multiple points and he's at he's too 12 right. We're not in the Gronk territory or Kelsey's not first round draft I'm just saying there's an outcome in my opinion with the you're attached to the one of the best offices in football There's an outcome where his little port is clearly the number one. Yeah, that's why he's being drafted as the number one I find myself a little bit more out just based on like regression data This is a player who had 10 touchdowns on 889 yards his expectation was more like six and a half touchdowns and over the last decade Every single tight end with 10 touchdowns under 900 receiving yards regress pre heavily in touchdowns the next year So that's my only fear But you also have a rookie going into your to correct and it tied in who's to say you know that he's not gonna take a leap forward as a player The opportunity is there without Josh Reynolds So and if you don't believe in James and Williams, which I got the underlying thought that maybe don't yeah Then the port is in yeah, I'm so sad for you Way it's crazy because you and I love it. I am sad He was right up on him is just shows your conviction is weak Yeah, it shows my conviction is weak But I stay water and look at what happens in rough and my victory lap continues Yeah, I mean he's just he's been on the field so much and done so little that it's very difficult But yeah, I love them coming out of college He's my number two water receiver and I'm one million percent fine taking a shot on him He's in the tenth round as the water shiver 48.
He's got explosive speed on one of the best offenses as the number two Water shiver. There's plenty like I'll drive plenty of James and millions. I I assume it's not gonna work for him, but the the risk reward is 100% there's almost no risk in the reward could be a really exhilarating season Mike talk about that early season schedule. Oh Brother so we open up at home against the Los Angeles Rams and look for it If you've been in fantasy football Jared off at home in the dome is that you know you can play him and then especially if you add in This is a defense that we expect you'll be able to beat That's when Jared off really thrives you open at home against the Rams then week two is at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Which maybe they maybe they fixed some things by least last year this that was a team That was a secondary that you knew you could exploit for crazy yardage week three on the road against Arizona week four against Seattle The defense I just proclaimed to be do do so like this four game stretch is Really set up for the Lions as a whole and for Jared Gough if like if you are waiting and we've kind of talked about the strategy of We really like Jane Daniels as a sleeper quarterback because you're going so late But if you're not comfortable going into the season only with him as your guy going a combo of golf and Daniels It's like it's such a good start to me Jared Gough has three like the Lions have three total outdoor games in the year That's what I'm talking about.
It's always been better home in dome as you said his games at Ford Field over the last two years His pace was forty seven hundred yards and forty three passing touch down. That's insane So let's let me flip it to the other side because it's Detroit So sometimes things can go wrong and so if there's a player That is going to be drafted with expectation that does not perform Is it David Montgomery is it Jared off is it what is the name for you? Yeah, I mean in truth most of the time when a player really really turns out to be a very bad pick It's an injury. Jameer gives us an undersized running back that you're drafting in the first round So he probably carries the most risk right David Montgomery is a six-rounder and while David Montgomery You know, I've got him projected to lose quite a bit of work to junior gifts I've got junior gives as my running back three this season the passing volume that I expect a mere Gibbs to have in this offense Is outstanding the fact that you're here gives I didn't even realize it's all prepping for the show yet 10 rushing touchdowns.
That's crazy He was he was outstanding as a rookie most rookies who perform well as a running back in rookie season They increase in the next year. I don't see how you don't give him more work So really it's injury risk with him. I think when he's on the field He's gonna be outstanding and I'm not going to shy away because he's so fast sometimes. He doesn't get tackled You know, he's like running out of bounds past people only 316 receiving yards for Gibbs so again if you're out on James and Williams and you look at where vacated targets can leak into It can be the running back position historically where we saw the workload increase for jameer Gibbs over the back after the year I think the This and this is just devil's advocate because I'm in on jameer Gibbs with you guys of Gibbs can gives to me as a player with the talent the opportunity to finish RB1 that's in the range of outcomes for him The way it goes bad to me not just injury is the team decides now we need to get back to if we're in the five It's it's only David Montgomery, which that's not what happened after the bi-week When both guys were back on the field It was like Montgomery's still getting a bunch of work But Gibbs was seeing far more than he had Before the roles really switched so that's that's the only concern to me which mere gives and I don't think that's gonna happen Yeah, last four games of the season inside the five-yard line Gibbs had at least one or two carries in in all four games So he wasn't taking off the field 100% of the time one other thing to factor in is that last year gives miss two games Dude injury Monty missed three dude injury if either player is out.
Yes, on the top five offense You've got gold at the position. So you not only are you know, you know Gibbs is gonna be good But Monty becomes upper echelon if Gibbs goes down. Yes the Green Bay Packers will talk about them I'm on wrong is do we have to talk about him? I just just real quickly wide receiver four third most receptions through the first Three years of career and drafting he's great.
There's nothing else at for on the wrong. Okay. No, we did not Yes, I'm on off from Mike right. I'm 100% with that.
He's and thank you He is the Center of this passing in and imagine what he could do if he takes his father's advice and starts down and Refreshing Coca-Cola classic at the half hashtag non-sponsor refresh and Coca-Cola classic at halftime. Yeah. Yeah, I mean I Hope it's like a 64-ounceer in a big Just like this got a big goal Well, the nice thing about that receiver documentary is that vomiting coke everywhere Oh, and raw is is an alpha in personality like this is a player that it's unacceptable for him to not receive a quantity of targets What you love to see you want a player that's gonna go out there and be You know loud enough and yeah, they don't have options outside of him in the in the wide receiver room yet All right green Bay nine and eight last year coming in with a seven and a half wind total this year It's up to ten and a half. It was the coming out party for Jordan Love So impressive they ended up 13th and points per game over the course of the entire year There is some turnover here, right Aaron Jones is out the door that that is a name that has been synonymous with the Packers for so long But there's stability as well in their head coach Matt LaFlore someone we trust so much with the offense Jordan Love I don't think he has a deal yet.
It's coming like Jordan Love is getting his money And then you have a group of wide receivers that has been the talk of much of the offseason of how you break down Like this is where I don't want to be trapped. I don't want to be so unsure of which wide receivers going to perform that we ignore what could be a top five offensive football and Just I mean literally I mean not to I mean just a highlight of Jason We were in the middle of a draft yesterday in the mock draft now was late But you didn't take one guy you wanted and on taping wicks because you were worried it would be Romeo Dobbs. Yeah, it would be wrong to take him ahead of Romeo Dobbs So you took jobs and I think that that could happen that could happen earlier in the draft right for people that are looking at January looking at Tricia Watson where oh gosh I'm making oh, I'm making the wrong move with this guy at this spot like you I don't think you're gonna feel comfortable drafting Packers wide receivers And that's the headline to me is that they're going to be very good Jane Reed currently is the earliest at wide receiver 34 In the back of the sixth yeah, I mean you talk about Jason you brought the Chargers the first charger player is an eighth round Well the first wide receiver for a team in which you look at what Jordan loved it over the back half of the year Is being drafted in this late six round that's that you're going to have Packers in the top of the wide receiver rankings Yes, and so the real question is like are we getting ourselves distracted with Dobbs and Don Tavian? Should we kind of toss them out a little bit and focus on these other two players?
I think because you know we have to get a man and yes over the last five games the year two of those games There was no Christian wants and one of those games. There was no Jane Reed like Should we should we try to hone in on a couple of guys? I so we don't miss the boat I think the hard part with Jane Reed and we discussed him on the footcast a few days ago of You Jane Reed is a very good player But if you're looking for ceiling he doesn't seem like a player that can make that jump into being a top 15 wide receiver And so it's it's to me It's identifying the player who can do that I think Christian Watson has the physical ability if he could stay on the on the field and when he was on the field and everybody was healthy He was the alpha in terms of target share. I think it was like a 21% if that but that's right at the time I had so Jane Reed is a safe pick for depth But the ceiling is not there Christian Watson far riskier, but has the ceiling and I think then between Dobbs and wicks It's almost like we it's the untapped ceiling that we haven't seen from wicks I think Dobbs is more gonna be like a Jane Reed type of a player where great depth piece very usable player because he'll have whatever eight plus touchdowns But I don't think that he can make the jump into being there So I've been working through it I think I would narrow it down almost of it comes down to team-built But if I'm shooting for the stars I'm gonna go Watson or I'm gonna go wicks actually really like the way that you broke that out I agree I agree with that I think that the Dobbs and Reed are safer lower ceiling options and when you're in the back half of the draft where all these guys are I'm shooting from you know, I'm shooting for the moon Yeah, the problem with Watson has been staying healthy.
Yeah being on the field to fulfill the great potential that we see I Gambling out his hamstrings. Yeah. Well, we all want to do that. Don't we I don't care Honestly, yeah, I was with I was doing some workouts with the trainer and he told me that my hamstrings are genetically so inflexible That it defies the way he understands the human body to work Which Jason and I have been in training together before and we both share the same DNA like if 23 He ran it on my hamstrings.
They'd be like he doesn't have it No, there's there's something genetically wrong with us and we used to have hamstring offs of like who could not stretch it I lay on the ground and the trainer picks your foot up off the ground. How early does your knee bend? Yeah, Jason's might be worse than mine But when such a direction that I thought you were seriously gonna come in hot of I was working out with trainer guys And he said genetically my hamstrings are incredible. No, so beautiful.
No, no, they are flawless Fairly I very like a special soldier flexibility, okay, because you do those tests where can you grab your arm behind you? And I'm my shoulders are good. So you wherever the flexibility like Sun's solders self sunscreen not a problem. No, I get it all No, double wings.
Here's what I'll say about Jordan read real quick This was a rookie season for Jordan read where you put up 63. Sorry. Yes, I got Jordan love and read combined for Jane read 64 for 793 and 8 miss time to the injury at the end of the year very impressive rookie season My eyeball told me all last year. There's the best wide receiver they have on the team I'm gonna stay with that.
That's my pick. I don't have the injury dance with Christian Watson And I do think wicks wicks and dogs indict the production of Watson more than they do read in terms of sure the type of player So in that regard I do agree. He's safe I think he has a little bit more of a crack door for upside than you guys do but that's it's a good talk through We'll do it again. I know it into my to highlight that Read ran in two routes with two wide receivers on the field.
Mm-hmm like yeah, he is their third wide receiver Yep. Yeah, no question now Do you just do just take Jordan love and say I think he's got one of the best wide receiver cores I know league we haven't even talked about Musgrave who looked great as a rookie at the tight end position so many places he could throw a touchdown or Or are you saying or are you saying oh I don't man. Yeah, or are you saying that? You know if you take the wide receivers out and you just look at what a great season You know Jordan love finishes the quarterback five, but he's not really a mobile quarterback He's not gonna add a lot on the ground and we talk a lot about pocket passes Meaning to throw it on and have a very high touch on rate what you had last year to be successful So where are you on his was that his first season and he kind of broke out and showed he is special I was that kind of the best because no car had a season just like this.
Yeah, he's great now He's better than their car and you have now talked me into adding Jane reading Jordan love to my stack list That's what you've talked me into because you know Jordan loves an eighth round pick I can go five rounds pick my favorite five players Yeah, and then I can go Jane Reed wait around Jordan love have a stack on offense I believe in or even if you have a Watson if you wanted to say even you have the buffer of like in the seventh You want to just make sure you get the Jane Reed Jordan loves that take love around early. That's yeah No, I think we should always be smart about pocket pastors that have kind of outlander seasons Jordan love was cooking last year. I mean This was this was awesome He was I think the second highest and passing touchdowns area I'd zone pass it if they were amazing as an offense throwing the ball in the red zone They were tied for the second most red zone passing touchdowns 18 touchdowns zero interception, which who's that remind you of Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, it's crazy.
Yeah, they don't know how might get a hard time from us, you know all the time like every minute of every day yeah, I do but None of it could compensate for how blessed she is as a packer fan out can't be hurt because he's gone from Firefield Rogers to love so just remember that when you're crying in the corner of the office Al Thank you. Um the running backs. Yeah, we're gonna talk running backs now So they went out surprised everybody spent the money on Josh Jacobs last year For rushing touchdowns for this team on 368 attempts between Jones and Dylan so get together Aaron Jones when she's that's like an outlandish Worse than the decade type of number on that many attempts So are there running backs do I mean Josh Jacobs has a nose for the end zone when you go look at what he did last year Even when he was inefficient he's a lot of good here because he scored a bunch knows for the buffet last year. Okay.
All right Wasn't that fact? No, I know he was super shredded. He was threaded but Jacobs arrives March on Lloyd was the third round investment running back. We like the offense We've talked a lot about Josh because being somebody we're very afraid to draft Man risk and reward I mean, yeah, this is a guy who led the league in rushing a couple years ago The only thing I will caution is that Matt LaFlore has said this a billion times before he is a committee coach He wants to keep his guys fresh.
So you're looking for the most efficient running back in a committee You're not looking for just who gets the ball first now. That's what made Aaron Jones so great He was so electric on a per touch base is it worked in a committee Josh Jacobs has found success when he got massive volume You know, this is where I lean towards if you want a piece of the running game super late in the draft March on Lloyd Explosive rookie coming in and some of the stuff that the coaches are talking about whether they're gonna take it slow Like they did rookie you know, they asked their OC are you gonna take it slow when you like you did with AJ Dylan he said no, I'd like to get him out there as much as possible He's got a skill set that's a bit different from AJ's as far as his speed be nice to get him his opponents I know it is just not he's saying that without laughing. I'm watching the video He did say that without laughing impressive. Let me flag something We've never talked about with Marshall Lloyd when you look at how things could work out in that backfield He will be a compliment to Jacobs matter what correct.
Yeah, like Jacob's is a solidified piece, right? Lloyd is going to have to take advantage of early opportunities on that team Which you said that they're eager to give him. Here's the one caveat with Lloyd I want you put in the back your head eight fumbles over 291 career attempts second smallest hands of any running back in the scouting home So if you want to Understand how that and they have Dylan on the roster, right? So they do currently they are not forced and they have other players Right, which is who contributed paler?
Oh Let's get that done a new baby hands here Hands and he's fumbled eight times on 300 attempts little joy and you fumbled twice as a rookie Oh, it's a problem. See you later. So just keep that in mind I'm not trying to throw cold water on his talent But just as a rookie on a team with expectations. It's always about can you start the season not like tank big speed?
That's what I call it. Well, you're trying not to big speed. This guy was just called volleyballing the ball into the other team Yeah, he's like big speed like I was gonna fumble it maybe I'll just throw it up in the air, right? See what happens there's schedule their opening schedule week one tough on the road against Philly Don't love that but then Indianapolis at home on the road against Tennessee at home against Minnesota.
That's not great. That's great That's great. All right, we're gonna take a break come back from Minnesota Alright, it was a tough year for the Vikings seven and ten injuries played this team It was really hard for the first time for fantasy managers to deal with no Justin Jefferson It's a bad time and then it was also hard to Tonight to not have Kirk cousins as this role and to be going into the year without Kirk cousins the win total last year It was eight and a half this year. It's six and a half from Vegas They have the sixth most difficult schedule and a brutal division like Yeah, I mean the biggest should be legitimately good this year and the other two teams we talked about are both in Attention to win the division and and going to maybe a Super Bowl hunt So yeah, this is not gonna be easy sledding for the Minnesota Vikings this season So that I mean That's the overview now We don't know who the quarterback's going to be Donald McCarthy some of some of what you just said that that Like looking like they might be the worst team in the division is one of the reasons that I am the least bullish of our of our three pack on Aaron Jones because you're having an older Running back that a team, you know, we can debate how much they wanted them back I always go with the if you really wanted them back you bring them back, you know situation Price was too much for them They moved on to Josh Jacobs whatever but if this team is not moving the football the way We want them to if they're not an efficient offense if the quarterback is changing halfway through the year Those are some of the things I'd be concerned about especially if Ty Chandler and what he did last year gets working to the mix There's a lot of questions.
I think beyond Jefferson like Jefferson. We're all in the opinion of like, you know draft him play him He's a superstar Maybe you need to ignore all the peripheral around him and just do that But Jason made a good point on the mock draft show of what he really sees the ceiling adds compared to some of these other top-tier options Jefferson ended up going late in the first. Yeah, and that's probably where he should go This is a guy that is almost guaranteed to be a wide receiver one and almost guaranteed to not be a top three wide receiver With the quarterback play in the expected touchdown availability. He'll have so you know low-end wide receiver one.
That's that's great Well, I'm sorry. I am distracted. I was gonna This is this is news to me. I have just found out right here on the show after all of this offseason of talking Aaron Jones Now Mike is one spot lower than I am on Aaron Jones.
I got a minute. I know that either now I got him at 25 Jason at 13 Mike at 26 now was this something that was in verdant? That's I didn't I just went to check or were you listening? I've kind of been in the middle, but yeah, you have the two of you guys but I like I feel the way that the coaches talked about Ty Chandler like that kid is going to play and It would shock me if this is a full Aaron Jones led situation for an offense that is probably gonna struggle So a committee with all that it's like Aaron Jones will be you'll have some huge spike games for sure But he's not a target for me.
Yeah, I will just throw this out the last time we saw Aaron Jones He was great. Yeah, this wasn't a player like the last time I saw Josh Jacob for he was struggling and I got injured He was the running back one on the week to start the year last year got injured Go with injuries throughout the season when he came back the last four weeks He was you know, 13 for 53 21 for 127 24 120 for 1-1-1 And he works in the past again rookie quarterbacks aren't usually great for their wide receivers But rookie quarterbacks are pretty good for running mix they tend to lean on the run a little bit more It's not necessarily the high upside but a high floor for that So this is a team that has been massacred by Aaron Jones for years Yeah, they they were surprised that he came to the market and they went and got him and so there I you know, this is a smart offensive system. I didn't see him lose a step and so I think he is going to be very relevant I you know Whether he can be a running back one on this team, maybe not but you're not drafting him like that So I do think it's an okay pick where he's going right now. Where's he going fifth fifth six round fifth round Yeah, the first five weeks of the season their heavy underdogs most of those games They go to New York to face the Giants then they play San Francisco Houston in Green Bay against the jet.
Oh, what? Do you think that was their GM's reaction to the schedule release mic did they just go yo? I think they went and they wrote down what week six by week quarterback change. That's what they wrote down That's why Donald started Donald will start.
Oh, he is being sacrificed. Talkin some won't be there Addison who knows? Yeah, I mean I would love to have this conversation about hey go give me another pass catcher I mean that's your best argument for Aaron Jones. I'm your pass catcher outside of Justin Jefferson Did I have to start in week one go if Addison is suspended by any chance than it is Aaron Jones?
I mean right now. I brought him up is it jail and nailer He's he's profiling as the three slash two of Addison's gone and then Brandon Powell and dynasty could be involved as well Those are two names for deeper now hit that nasty boys drop if I'm saying J. Oh, and they'll just name But those are those are guys that could see the field about some some Johnny Mundt No No Johnny Mundt making more money at the time in position to train the bride this year Johnny Mundt is such a titan name Yeah, so look not promising not promising to have a quarterback. You could start the running back room We'll see but could be very committee based on a low opportunities around the red zone We do like having a colonel I mean I like the opportunity for them to like I think he's gonna want to do stuff in this office He won't be able to execute because of the person that I agree schedule is so rough for drafting Minnesota Vikings.
Yeah I mean look you want to add some to the Jefferson conversation Yeah, I mean like Jefferson still draft him in the first round. He's the greatest fighter receiver in football right now But that is You know me to add to it because those sure I read five games. They're not favored in their first nine So you go beyond the five games. I just read six most difficult strength of schedule.
That's not great Let's talk about Chicago. All right fun. Last year seven and a half win total There were two and six and one score games the Justin field experiment is over this year projected win total of eight and a half they have the third easiest schedule for 2024 and You know I could sit here and give you all their numbers on offense last year I don't care about them away and This was a defense. That was number one in rushing hours per game.
It took major steps It's going to continue to improve I think and like I said Matt eber-fluice is currently the betting favorite to win coach of the year and We got Shane Waldron in as the offensive coordinator also looks like my number one pick to coach in Icelandic Yes, that is where I'm looking at the picture and he is from my deduct to Give me the name Kyle wolf the dentist and oh he breaks in with his Kyle is always on the draw for mighty ducks or Recently angels in the outfield statistics from the movie impressive wolf the dentist. Come on man This is Pat Riley's haircut. It's like even if we saw that movie site. That's the look this is Pat Riley on the sideline We're doing it again.
So I will avoid the Sun and I will grease my hair I mean is this um showtime in Chicago is the question cuz Caleb Williams Jimmy just posted the picture. It's the same guy. It is the same guy. Wait.
This is the actor. Yes is the this is the actual Matt Eber-fluice was IMDB played wolf the dentist is yeah Caleb Williams just signed his deal They said let's equip him as well as we possibly can veteran pass catcher extraordina Allen welcome to the Bears DJ more breakout campaign with Justin feels despite the struggles we We got the Andre Swift to help you in the back out of the backfield. I mean Gerald Everett's there Roll the zoom's there the ninth pick they went out and got a Great veteran they traded for one of the best wide receivers while they already had a good wide She even said no not done number nine pick We're drafting one of the best rookie wide receivers in a loaded top heavy class You can't enter a better situation. You know it reminds me It reminds me of when Cincinnati made the pick on Jamar Chase when we were all sitting here going You know we recognize T.
Heggins could be the one of an offense You have Tyler Boyd who was contributing at a high you know I mean you need to need some because your office of life. Yeah, and they said you know what let's double down on making sure our rookie is successful and You know Penna so was amazing, but but Jamar Chase is as well. So they have equipped him They have a good defense. They say goodbye to darnell Mooney.
I think they have three running backs that will contribute in this office To what degree that is yet to be seen I just don't want people to the under switch is going to be their higher volume Piece of the committee no question, but I don't want people to forget about Like roshan johnson and you know there's been positive positivity around him so far roshan johnson is one of my favorite best ball picks He's going so late. I don't really understand it He's he's being drafted like like klil herder is the clear backup and then roshan johnson is not a part of this office And I think roshan johnson will be the number two running back for this team He's great on third downs. He's a quality back and you know I prefer the younger more explosive guy I would I would firmly bet klil will be the barbie too As do the average person because oh you thought you average. Yeah, he just said you was that how's that feel?
Basic basic Mike if feels fine roshan johnson had Many times throughout the season where he should have taken over like and he did not and it was they were like nah This deonta form a guy and then forma comes in and has great games and then formin is banished himself to Siberia And like should we put the rookie in like nope back to klil herbert well to be fair he was a rookie I mean that you know he was he was just getting in there He led all Chicago running backs and third down snaps and snaps and pass protection I'm like I haven't made the judgment call on him yet I think I think we can we can see how this year goes 4.3 a carry as a rookie living opportunity didn't earn it Right didn't earn the yeah, I get it. The wide receiver room is really interesting. It's heavily dependent on a big year from a rookie quarterback Caleb Williams I had a we had a show a couple months ago where I was talking about expectations for rookie quarterbacks really looking at What's a fair expectation to provide your receiver room if you're the number one pick versus being just the first round pick versus being a rookie Quarterback in general it definitely lent itself to you're the number one overall pick your number one wide receiver numbers are much better It's around a thousand yards. It's around seven touchdowns.
So You know if it was just each anymore no one else it'd be easy to say okay more is gonna be that guy We're getting the murkiness of well do things really talented and Alan is really experienced and DJ more had a really good year Last year yeah, I mean when you dug deep on that research which was great You did find that most of those really great, you know the wide receivers connected to 101 quarterbacks like like Steve Smith You know Steve Smith was awesome But also it was like him and no one and no one else and so here you're gonna have rookie numbers And I think they're gonna be prolific rookie numbers Then Caleb Williams is going to have one of the better rookie wide receiver seasons a rookie quarterback seasons of all time But even that I think that's like sorry to derail the conversation But that's like that's it where Caleb Williams is being drafted is the QB 11 which is like that's not the worst thing in the world Like he's not being steamed up to being you know like a top eight guy like that phrase being steamed up He is being drafted in like with the eighth round and the price is it's it's Powerable Jason, but what does prolific look that's what I'm asking I'm gonna put you on the spot Jason more Caleb Williams over under 4108 passing yards I would take the under based on history Touchdowns over under 23 pounds in touch. I've got him exactly a 23. That's that's my projection for him. The game has not been Pro-olithic my butt.
Yeah, I mean I know that's I just gave you C. J. Strauss two numbers So if he doesn't straddle is the quarterback 11 with 4100 yards and 23000 if you throw 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns For an NFL quarterback for fantasy purposes that sucks for a rookie quarterback that is prolific that those are during the top 10 of both of those numbers Like that that's that is an unbelievable rookie season. So that's where let's say he throws 4300 and 25 That's that's one of the best not necessarily fantasy because the best fantasy rookies are our mobile running quarterbacks But as far as you know a guy that's gonna just put up a ton through the air That's as good as it ever gets and then you split it up three ways Yeah, I don't know if you split it up three ways, man.
Well, that's the question is what's the packing order of the wider receiver? Yeah, and that would also make him the best quarterback the Bears have ever had statistically by a wide margin I do think that's possible You know 17 game season amazing peripherals like the defense the coaching the receivers. I think Caleb Williams could go do that for sure um, but You know who becomes his favorite right like it is Keenan Allen along have a long play. I mean you have You have to pay out for DJ more compared to the other guys Roma Dunes a you're a rookie.
There's a lot of Question marks about whether you're gonna. I mean you're not you're not out snapping DJ more than Keenan Allen in this offense So three wide that's your situation, right? And you do have what's their 12 personnel numbers? Well, it's hard to say because you've got Shane Waldron coming over from who has been the Seattle office coordinator And if you look at what Seattle did last year they had three similar players right yet a speedster in Tyler Lockett That's kind of like DJ Moore you had your really great slot route runner in JSN that's Keenan Allen and you had your big bodied guy like DK Maccalfe and Um, so so if they're implementing a similar office assistant to what we saw in Seattle Keenan scares a crap out of me because the amount of Castel ball 40 yards online scrimmage.
Yes, exactly is average depth of targets gonna be zero They were 11th and 12 personnel last year by the way Seattle was with us. That's a compelling argument And because I was just about to say I think Keenan's the one I'm gonna take I don't want to pay up for DJ Moore And I don't want to do the well I'll just take the last one because I'm not gonna bet on the roof I definitely have softened on DJ Moore from where I was in February March and looking forward to the season right maybe not February March But like a couple months ago Um because of just the fact you have three talented players you got a really talented tight in you got a pass catching wide or see or running back And then you have a cap on rookie production historically where we've never seen a double digit touchdown here So it's not like I can say okay spreads it around but even more puts up 10 or 11 That's really really unlikely but this could be a really really good team where they win a lot of games and they're more disappointing for fantasy I think that's what's going on. I think they're gonna be a very exciting team I also believe that well, there will be massive games, you know where Caleb Williams does go out in 350 and four In a single week and you're thrilled and excited, but it's probably going to be a little bit of a learning curve here It's time It's time for well. No, it's not.
I'll wait a second I want to hear about the under switch real quick because we don't we don't talk about him enough or a lot six round pick right now I think we're all lower than 80p on him. Why is that because 47 percent of his yards came before contact last year I'm behind the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line He had I mean you saw those cameras those Madden angle cameras from behind the quarterback where it's like Dude, I could have got one yard through that line Um because it you know, it's like five yards to the left five yards to the right the holes He was running through now. This isn't a bad offensive line and obviously you're not gonna be stacking the box against the running game with all These wide receivers. I think the under switch is going to be okay They went after him immediately in free agency.
He's got this game perfect This was clearly a desire. So I think they have a plan for him. He'll be involved You know, he's being drafted as the running back 21 which doesn't feel too bad if you want to take a shot on him Everything I said about rookie quarterbacks being bad for water shivers But good for the floor of a running back applies here to de-endre switch I just don't as Mike forgiven him. Have you read it?
I jump back in I was gonna ask the question of what do you make about a player? I know the money's there But it's it's just 13 and three years right like yeah, the random cooks with the running back position like people They tired of it. It has happened like that is and maybe it was just a situation of Philadelphia would have loved to get him back But he played his way into a contract and they were able to stick on parkly So maybe that is literally the entirety of the explanation, but it's hard. I mean we did that we know who he is We know who the under threat is he's a good running back who can help with human trunks.
He's not gonna be great He's not gonna be a top fantasy. Here's his four. Here's his four seasons of fantasy finish running back 18 running back 19 running back 22 running back 23 He's been drafted as a run back 21 sounds about right. That's the term of chlorine on the running back spot No, I think that he's actually Positionally not a good running back I think that he is an extremely talented Fast human being an athlete and a like and a competent football player But just not the way that like jimmyr Gibbs couldn't get on the field because he was doing Bone-headed things that we can't necessarily see I'm guessing that has an influence on it.
All right. I'm gonna be boring Are you yeah, Detroit green Bay chicago, minnesota? Okay, I am going to be less boring. I'm going packers lions bears bikings I'm so happy to hear you say that Jason because if you both had the lions at the top I'm like someone's got to be someone has to have the courage to put the packers first So you did it.
I don't have to do lions lions Packers bears Vikings All right Tuesday We will cover the NFC South a reminder on yeah jeremy is already correcting or congratulating Jason on his pick of the packers at the top Nobody picked Chicago obviously very close and very close in the odds with green bay in terms of the betting on they certainly could win this division. Yeah, but Gonsma honey could beat up all the other coaches. That's fair. That's true.
That's damn Campbell everybody uh the NFC South on Tuesday ultimate draft Get over the right now pick up the ultimate draft get help you dominate your draft get ready for Coming very soon draft day. It's almost here. All right. That is gonna do it for us.
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