Nickel Breakout Looms as Indonesia Tightens Supply Ahead of 2026

Recording date: 7th October 2025The critical minerals sector is experiencing a fundamental transformation as direct government equity participation drives substantial stock revaluations while nickel prices test multi-month trading range resistance. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, recently outlined how these converging factors represent a potential inflection point for the industry.Nickel prices have been range-bound between $15,000 and $15,500 per tonne for three to four months but are now pushing against resistance levels, with brief breakouts to $15,600. Ore prices increased $0.50 to $1.00 per tonne during China's recent October holiday, providing price support as markets return to full operation. Selby stated that "this fall is when we're going to see the first move," suggesting the breakout may be imminent.Indonesian supply management is emerging as a critical factor for market balance. Government representatives at recent International Nickel Study Group meetings outlined plans for more aggressive supply discipline through year-end and into 2026. Key policy changes include reducing mining licences from three-year to one-year terms and implementing forestry crackdowns, with officials pointing to tightness expected in the first quarter of 2026. Indonesia now controls two-thirds of global nickel supply, making these policy shifts materially significant.Government funding is creating dramatic stock revaluations. The US government has taken equity stakes in Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals, with companies receiving support experiencing 2-10x stock appreciation. Lithium Americas has doubled in a month, MP Materials has tripled in three months, and The Metals Company is up tenfold since December. Canada is developing similar programmes, with priority project lists identifying large-scale, advanced-stage projects for direct government support.Capital rotation from precious metals into critical minerals is accelerating as gold approaches $4,000 per ounce. Investors are positioning ahead of government funding announcements rather than chasing already-revalued stocks, creating opportunities in underappreciated projects meeting strategic criteria for government support.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com