Nickel Market Faces Structural Shift as Top Producers Coordinate Supply Discipline

Recording date: 24th February 2026The nickel market is experiencing a structural shift as Indonesia and the Philippines move toward coordinated supply management, driving prices above $18,000 per ton in late February 2026. This represents a nearly 5% single-day gain and marks a significant departure from the price pressure that has characterized the market over the previous three years.The most dramatic development involves Indonesia's aggressive quota reduction for Eramet, one of the world's largest nickel producers. The Indonesian government slashed Eramet's ore quota from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, effectively removing approximately 300,000 tons of nickel from the market—roughly 10% of global supply. This action demonstrates Indonesia's commitment to supply discipline and may signal a pattern of targeting publicly reporting Western companies that must disclose such cuts, while reductions affecting private Indonesian operators remain invisible to markets.Indonesia and the Philippines have formalized their cooperation through the Indo Nickel Corridor, a working group established between the mining associations of both countries. While not officially a cartel, this coordination between the world's two largest nickel ore suppliers represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics. The Philippines supplies over 300,000 tons annually, and joint coordination aims to ensure producers can achieve profitable returns rather than oversupplying a limited resource.Physical market indicators are confirming the price rally's sustainability. Philippine ore prices to Indonesia have increased notably, and the Philippine rainy season running through March typically constrains ore availability, supporting expectations for prices in the $18,500 to $20,000 range through the first quarter.Additional supply disruptions, including Sherritt International's operational curtailments in Cuba due to fuel shortages, are adding marginal tightness. Meanwhile, improved investor sentiment is evident in successful capital raises by junior nickel companies and Vale's sale of its Thompson asset to Exiro Minerals, which has committed several hundred million dollars to revive production at the long-declining operation.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com