Nickel's New Era: Rising Prices, Growing EV Demand, and Major Projects Moving Forward

Recording date: 30th December 2025The nickel market is experiencing a fundamental transformation as Indonesia's coordinated supply management strategy drives prices from $14,200 to $16,500 per ton since mid-December 2025, with further advances toward $18,500-$20,000 expected . Indonesia, which controls approximately two-thirds of global nickel supply, has implemented multiple policy measures including reducing mining licenses from three-year to one-year terms, closing mines for forestry violations, and banning new HPAL and NPI processing plants . These measures respond to declining saprolite ore grades that have dropped by double-digit percentages year-over-year, representing a calculated effort to maximize value from finite resources .Global electric vehicle sales reached 18.5 million units through November 2025, up 21% year-over-year, with Europe growing 33%, China 19%, and rest-of-world surging 48% . North America's 1% decline reflects policy reversals under the Trump administration, though strengthened Chinese content restrictions benefit North American and European nickel suppliers . The underlying EV growth rate of 20-25% supports long-term nickel demand, particularly for premium and long-range vehicles requiring nickel-intensive battery chemistries .Prime Minister Mark Carney designated Canada Nickel's Crawford project as a National-Building Project in December 2025, targeting year-end 2026 construction start with dedicated federal financing and accelerated permitting support . The company has expanded to eight resources in the Timmins Nickel District containing over 20 million tonnes of nickel, creating district consolidation potential as Crawford alone is valued at several billion dollars against the company's C$300 million market capitalisation .The International Nickel Study Group forecasts a 300,000-ton surplus for 2025, yet exchange inventories increased only 100,000 tons during the year and just 10,000 tons in November-December despite reported monthly surpluses of 60,000 tons . This persistent disconnect suggests official forecasts substantially overstate surplus conditions as Indonesian ore grades decline faster than models capture . The combination of Indonesian pricing discipline, underappreciated demand fundamentals, and advancing North American projects signals materially different market conditions for 2026 compared to the Chinese-controlled price suppression that characterised 2024-2025 .Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com