NIO Battery Swap Alliance Delayed: Is CATL Taking Over

NIO announced battery swap partnerships with 8 major automakers between November 2023 and September 2024: Changan, Geely, Chery, JAC, Lotus, GAC, FAW, and Jiyue. William Li compared it to Amazon Web Services, promising to build the world's largest battery swap ecosystem with unified standards and shared infrastructure.But as of November 2025, production vehicles from the battery swap alliance have been significantly delayed. Chery's Exeed models were expected in Q3 2025 and haven't arrived yet, though testing has been confirmed at NIO swap stations. Meanwhile, CATL announced their Choco-Swap ecosystem with nearly 100 partners and aggressive expansion goals: 1,000 stations by end of 2025, 10,000 mid-term, and 30,000 stations long-term. NIO currently operates 3,562 stations after building since 2018.In March 2025, NIO and CATL signed a strategic partnership where CATL would invest up to 2.5 billion yuan in NIO Power and integrate Choco-Swap technology into future Firefly models. But in April 2025, Reuters reported CATL was in talks to acquire a controlling stake in NIO Power, valued at over 10 billion yuan. William Li denied the rumors in a WeChat group, but NIO's official statement only confirmed they're working with multiple investors including CATL.Then in November 2025, William Li said Firefly will NOT integrate with CATL's battery swap network, contradicting the March partnership announcement. Li explained that CATL uses air-cooled battery packs targeting ride-hailing markets, while Firefly uses liquid-cooled packs for better safety and temperature performance.This episode breaks down what's causing the battery swap alliance delays, why automakers haven't launched compatible vehicles on schedule, and whether CATL is positioning to dominate battery swapping alongside or in competition with NIO. We cover the standardization challenges, the BaaS pricing dilemmas, the stratification of cooperation levels between alliance members, and CATL's open platform approach that's attracting more partners.GAC Aion just launched the first mainstream passenger car using CATL's Choco-Swap technology in November 2025. CATL plans to expand internationally to Europe, directly competing with NIO in overseas markets. With CATL controlling 44.3% of China's battery market share and having deeper capital resources, this analysis explores whether the partnership could evolve into competition.For NIO bulls and EV investors, this is the objective analysis of where the battery swap alliance stands today, what the delays mean, and how CATL's parallel ecosystem changes the competitive landscape.