No Cuts Coming: The Rate Story Flips, and Why the Next Move Is a Hike

The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why. Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts. Trump Watch - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil came down on hope value, not supply actually returning, and the physical damage to Hormuz is months of work away even if the politics cooperate. Plus an objective audit of the tariff regime: $264bn raised, the deficit untouched, $166bn ordered back out the door with a $23m-a-day interest penalty. Expensive is a better word than winning. And the framework break at the Fed under new chair Kevin Walsh, who wants to scrap forward guidance and the dot plot in favour of "strategic ambiguity." The Real-Time Market - Chris Watkin's week 22 data, and the first of three independent datasets that all agree on the shape of the market: softening, selectively, not collapsing. Gross sales down 8.9% year on year and down in every single region, outer London off 18%, yet price per square foot still rose 1.7% in a month. Fewer homes selling, the ones that do achieving more per foot. The pounds-per-square-foot index that correlates 98% with the Land Registry, five months ahead. The Inflation Attitude Survey - Rarely covered, more revealing than half the official data. Median inflation expectations up to 5%, the year-ahead figure jumping to 4%, and 53% now expecting rates to rise. Why belief greases the outcome, and why the Bank fears the survey more than a weak GDP print. The Gilts and the MPC Call - The five-year closed at 4.375%, that 6% limited company money still stubbornly in place. Hugh Pill already voted for a hike last time, the first vote for higher rates in nearly three years. The curve now prices a base rate higher in a year than today. Adam gives a member-by-member breakdown of Thursday's vote and lands on 7-2, with 6-3 not far behind. No hype, no sensationalism. The turn is real, but it's a turn, not a screeching handbrake. Build your LTVs, your stress tests, and your fix-versus-tracker calls around the direction, not the exact date. Part two covers the deep dive: four reports on the affordability wall and why building more won't fix it. Listen next. Property Business Workshop - Central London, Wednesday 1st July. Real due diligence: on lenders, on JV partners, on deals, and the DD being run on you. Live exercise, no-holds-barred Q&A, VIP dinner. Tickets selling now: search "Property Business Workshop 11" or visit tinyurl.com/pbweleven Keep calm, listen to the Supplement, and carry on.