No Joy in Gold-ville Today

Housekeeping: Support Independent Media. The 1970s Are BackFeatured Posts on News Sites :Scottsdale Mint — Wyoming’s Gold Hedge and the Return of State Bullion Zerohedge — Gold Becomes America’s Top Export Yahoo — WGC Answers: Are we running out of gold? X.com — AfD Leadership Denounces U.S.-Israel Strategy; Warns of Global Contagion and "WWIII" Risk Featured Analysis:News & Analysis:Coming Soon/ Chat: Data on Deck: PPI and Fed Day * MONDAY, MARCH 16 Empire State manufacturing survey* TUESDAY, MARCH 17 Pending home sales* WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18 PPI, FOMC interest-rate decision and press conference* THURSDAY, MARCH 19 New home sales* FRIDAY, MARCH 20 8Employment cost indexQ40.7%Charts and Final Market Check: ***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix internTL;DR Hartnett* Hartnett’s core warning is a 2007 to 2008 replay risk: oil is spiking, credit stress is emerging, and policymakers risk repeating the same mistake made into the last crisis by tightening into a fragile financial system. In that analogy, oil is the visible problem, but credit is the system-breaking problem.* The main lesson from the 2008 analog is policy error: in the prior cycle, central banks kept focusing on inflation and energy while credit was already cracking underneath. The conclusion is that hiking rates to fight oil now would repeat that error, weaken banks further, and increase the odds of a broader market break.* Hartnett’s near-term framework is conditional: if oil comes back down and financial conditions ease, Treasuries, China, equities, and gold can recover. If oil stays elevated and credit worsens, markets move deeper into risk-off, with banks, cyclicals, and overbought assets like gold still vulnerable before a true capitulation low is reached.* Our interpretation extends beyond Hartnett’s short-term setup: even if policymakers avoid a full 2008-style mistake, we feel the bigger path still points toward medium-term stagflation, with oil likely remaining structurally elevated, credit pressure lingering, and gold weaker in the short run but stronger over the next one to two years. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe