Ep. 1958: Nobody Knows Nothing

Why is financial forecasting so persuasive when its track record is so poor? Don and Tom open the Book of Financial Physics to Law No. 6—“Nobody Knows Nothing”—and explain why stock pickers, market timers, and highly paid pundits cannot reliably tell you what comes next.Then they answer listener questions about permanent life insurance and deferred income annuities, trusted contacts and two-factor authentication, and whether a wealthy client can copy an advisor’s portfolio while paying for advice on only part of the assets.Finally, they simplify a 529 allocation for a three-year-old and detour through vacation smoke, Disneyland prices, and the value of ignoring suspicious messages.00:39 The sixth law of financial physics01:48 Nobody Knows Nothing04:19 The real cost of active management05:14 What prediction makes investors miss07:00 Active funds lose market share10:22 Pundit performance versus the index12:00 Send in your questions13:27 Permanent life insurance and deferred annuities17:36 Securing investment accounts21:02 Why trusted contacts matter22:14 AUM fees and copying a portfolio25:45 The simple 529 allocation28:24 Smoke, Disneyland, and family vacationQuestions? Comments? Click!