Northern Ireland Subvention: Possible Unification Effects

In their address to the IIEA, John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth present their recent IIEA publication on the Northern Ireland subvention, which considers what the financial costs for the government in Ireland would be of Irish unification, using data from 2019. They discuss the findings from their paper, including that covering the Northern Ireland deficit would cost around 5% of Irish national income, and raising Northern Ireland’s public service pay rate and welfare rates to levels south of the border would cost another 5% of national income. According to FitzGerald and Morgenroth, if Northern Ireland were to immediately address the cause of its very low productivity, especially the inadequacies of its educational system, when such action matured in 25 or 30 years, this could substantially reduce the cost of unification. A quicker productivity win would also be available if Northern Ireland could persuade the large number of emigrants who are university graduates living in England to return. About the Speakers: John FitzGerald is Co-Chair of the Institute of International and European Affairs Economists Group, a member of the UK Group, and an Honorary Fellow, and Adjunct Professor of Economics at Trinity College Dublin. He is also a Research Affiliate at the Economic and Social Research Institute, and a Member of the Royal Irish Academy.  He was a member of the Central Bank of Ireland Commission from 2010 to 2020 and he was Chairman of the Irish government’s Climate Change Advisory Council until January 2021. Dr Edgar Morgenroth is a member of the Institute of International and European Affairs Economists Group and UK Group, and a full Professor of Economics at DCU Business School, Dublin City University. He has held positions at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Keele University, and the Strategic Investment Board of Northern Ireland (SIB). He is a Fellow of the UK Academy of Social Sciences and a Fellow of the Regional Studies Association, having served as its vice chairman and treasurer.