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I'm Mark Murray. This week's latest national NBC News Wall Street Journal poll finds Joe Biden ahead of President Trump by 11 points among registered voters. It also shows 6 and 10 thanking the nation as on the wrong track, as well as another 6 and 10 believing the country is worse off than it was four years ago. Those are pretty tough numbers for the president.
But I know what you're about to say. Mark, weren't the polls wrong in 2016? And why can I believe in them now? And you have evidence from our October NBC poll from 2016, which showed Hillary Clinton with the same exact 11-point national lead over Trump.
Well, I have two answers for you. One, the national polls were more right than wrong in 2016. After that 11-point lead in our October poll came the big Comey letter regarding Clinton's emails. And her final lead in NBC Wall Street Journal poll was 5 points, while her final average was 3 points.
In the end, she won the popular vote by more than 2 percentage points. The second answer I have for you is that Joe Biden's 11-point lead in our current poll is different from Clinton's 11-point lead in 2016. Let me tell you what I mean. Biden for starters has a net positive fave unfavorable in our poll.
He's at 43% positive versus 42% negative, while Clinton didn't in our October 2016 poll, when she was at 40% positive and 50% negative. Biden also has been at 50% or higher in the ballot in 5 straight NBC polls. While Clinton only got 50% or higher twice in two-way matchups during the general election. In both times or right after that Access Hollywood video.
Biden's lead since January has consistently been between 6 and 11 points, with the one exception being his 14-point lead right after that first presidential debate. While Clinton's lead over Trump ranged anywhere between 3 and 11 points. Joe Biden has consistently led among senior voters, while Clinton never did. And while there was a sizable third-party vote in 2016, Gary Johnson was at 7 percentage points in our October NBC Wall Street Journal poll, and Jill Stein was at 2%.
While our present poll isn't even measuring the third party vote in 2020, because it's guaranteed to be smaller this presidential cycle. Add them all up, Biden's positive fave unfavorable, his larger and more durable lead, his advantage with seniors, and the lack of a real third party vote. And you see that not all 11-point leads are created equally. And this analysis doesn't include all the post-2016 changes we've made to our poll.
After what happened four years ago, it's become easy for many to dismiss the polls, even though the final national polls were more right than wrong. But our October 2020 NBC Wall Street Journal poll is vastly different than the one from 2016. Even if the ballot margin is the same. That's a lift for us.
We'll be back on Monday with fresh poll numbers, I'm sure. Download us on your favorite podcast app. Be healthy, be well, and be safe.