Not an Exact Science

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/48QRb50 Trevor Cummings and Brett Bonecutter discuss Trevor’s “Not an Exact Science” blog post, prompted by a prospective client who achieved strong decade-long returns largely because nearly half his portfolio was concentrated in two top-performing stocks, leading to a conversation about diversification and how investors often blur skill and luck. They explore overconfidence, FOMO, and the “exception not the rule” mindset that causes people to discount risk, emphasizing that risk cannot be eliminated and must be respected. Trevor explains Monte Carlo simulations, their usefulness for testing plan viability, and their limitations given unforeseeable life events. They reference Long-Term Capital Management and “When Genius Failed” as a caution about arrogance in modeling. The episode highlights managing mitigatable risks (insurance, emergency funds), avoiding unnecessary concentration, and building flexibility—“the power of the pivot”—through planning, liquidity, and long-term compounding. 00:00 Welcome to TOM 00:26 Client Concentration Shock 02:17 Skill Versus Luck 04:59 Risk Always Exists 06:44 Exception Not Rule 09:00 Monte Carlo Reality Check 11:28 When Genius Failed 15:45 Mitigate What You Can 20:14 Power of the Pivot 23:11 Advice for Catching Up 26:52 Back to the Basics 27:29 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com