Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market correction. We examine positive gamma, ultra-low S&P 500 implied volatility, near-record-low correlation, extreme Nasdaq volatility, AI stock dispersion and why the current setup resembles July 2024 before a 10% drawdown.Brent Kochuba on Xhttps://x.com/spotgammaSpotGammahttps://spotgamma.comMain topics coveredWhy markets have become numb to geopolitical risk, war headlines and oil volatilityHow market-maker hedging, positive gamma and systematic options selling stabilize stocksWhy OPEX and VIX expiration can create a window of weakness or a window of strengthHow ETF growth, leveraged products and new listings create additional options exposureWhy July OPEX is small for the S&P 500 but meaningful for AI and semiconductor stocksWhat happened to SpaceX volatility after traders sold expensive calls and putsWhy expensive implied volatility can make put options lose money even when a stock fallsWhat extreme COR1M and dispersion reveal about the divide beneath the market averagesWhy S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection while Nasdaq volatility resembles a meme stockWhy the VXN-VIX spread and July 2024 analog have Brent preparing for a potential correctionTimestamps00:00 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk05:16 How systematic options flows stabilize stocks09:33 Gamma squeezes and why OPEX can reset market trends13:37 Positive gamma and suppressed daily volatility17:41 How new listings and ETFs feed into options markets21:48 Why July OPEX is concentrated in single stocks25:48 Reviewing June guardrails and the AI stock correction30:39 July gamma support and the post-OPEX window of weakness38:34 Near-record-low correlation and a fragile market setup44:20 S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection48:31 Why options are serially underpricing volatility52:31 How AI could reshape the Nasdaq and its volatility57:54 Why July 2024 may be the key OPEX analog01:02:02 Brent's market risk outlook and hedging planLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.