This Sunday, the final sprint. It is time for a new generation of leadership in America. We will never give up. We will never, ever back down, and we will never, ever, ever surrender.
As the 2024 election, here's the finish line. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump made their last appeal to voters. I want to protect the women of our country. I'm gonna do it whether the women like it or not.
He simply does not respect the freedom of women or the intelligence of women. Where does the race stand? NBC's C. Poor Nacki has the results of our final NBC poll before election Day.
Plus, violent threats. Donald Trump suggests sending Liz Cheney to war and said she should have guns trained on her face. Let's put her with a rifle, standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. Okay.
Let's see how she feels about it. Anyone who wants to be president of Vienna, the United States, who uses that kind of violent rhetoric, it's clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president. And trash talking. There's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now.
Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico. After a comedian's racist remarks about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally, Democrats seized on the hateful message to court Hispanic voters. My guest this morning, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Republican Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota.
Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News chief Political analyst Chuck Todd, Christina Lodono Rooney, senior Washington correspondent for Telemundo, Mark Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, and former White House press Secretary Jen Psaki. Welcome to Sunday and a special election edition of Meet the Press from NBC News headquarters in New York, the longest running show television history. This is a special edition of Meet the Press with Kristen Welker. Good Sunday morning from our election headquarters at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in New York.
With just 48 hours until election Day, the stakes could not be higher in what may be the closest election in recent memory. As former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris promised two starkly different paths for the country. As president, I pledge to seek common ground and common sense solutions to the challenges you face. I am not looking to score political points.
I am looking to make progress. We will not be invaded. We will not be occupied. We will not be overrun.
We will not be conquered. We will be a free and proud nation once again. More than 72 million Americans have already cast their ballots. Seven states will decide the election.
And never in recent memory have the polls been so close. In those battleground states on the weekend before Election Day. But will the battleground expand? A shocking new Des Moines Register Iowa poll out overnight shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47 to 44% among likely voters.
Mr. Trump had an 18 point lead over President Biden in the state back in June. The startling reversal driven by the gender gap and the strength of independent women who back Harris by a 28 point margin. Both candidates are urging voters to show up.
For those who haven't voted yet, let me be clear. No judgment. No judgment. But you still have time.
I come today with a message of hope for all Americans with your beautiful vote. We don't want your money. I don't want your money. I want your damn vote now.
Our final NBC News national poll completed overnight shows the race statistically tied among registered voters 49 to 49%. Can the vice president hold her ground with black and Latino voters and deliver a superior brown game? Can she grow Democratic support in the suburbs? And will the issue of abortion power women to the ballot box?
Can former President Trump break through the blue wall as he did in 2016 on the issues of the economy and immigration? Can he narrow the margins among black and Latino voters and turn out young men? Will Nikki Haley voters stick with Trump? And if he loses, will the former president accept the results?
He still hasn't conceded the 2020 race and is already spreading baseless claims about the 2024 election. Vice President Harris and former President Trump and their surrogates are making their closing arguments. Hello. W.
Georgia, North Carolina. If we win Pennsylvania, we're gonna win the whole deal. We have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other. Kamala, who's grossly incompetent, broke it.
I will fix it. Donald Trump's a loser in everything. You cannot, Kamala Harris, pretend that you had nothing to do with the Biden administration when you are the sitting vice president. And in many cases, our allies are worse than our so called enemies.
Day one. If elected, Donald Trump would walk into that office with an enemy's list. When elected, I will walk in with a to do list. I consider myself to be the father of fertilization.
I want to protect the women of our country. I'm going to do it whether the women like it or not. We have to choose leaders who embody the values we seek to pass on to our children. She's violated her oath, eradicated our sovereign border, and unleashed an army of gangs and criminal migrants from prisons and jails make the margin of victory so big that, you know what can't happen.
The only thing can stop us is the cheating. It's the only thing that can stop us. He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol. We will never give in.
We will never give up. We will never, ever back down. And we will never, ever, ever surrender. We begin this morning in the battleground states.
North Carolina was the state former President Trump won in 2020 by the smallest margin in both candidates held events there on Saturday. Already more than 4 million people have voted in the state, despite the huge impact of Hurricane Helene. NBC's Dasha Burns is in Greensboro, where the former president held a rally last night. And Dasha, you just spoke with the president this morning.
What did he tell you? Yeah, that's right. I just got off the phone with the former president moments ago. I asked him about that stunning new Des Moines Register poll showing Harris leading in typically red Iowa.
He told me the poll is, quote, fake and called the pollster and seltzer a, quote, Trump hater, though he has called her a talented pollster in the past and praised that very same poll earlier this year when it showed him leading big in the Iowa caucuses. Experts widely see that poll as reputable. I also asked the former president about the gender gap that's been defining this election. I asked, what is his message to women who are thinking about voting for Vice President Harris.
He said, quote, you're voting for the wrong person and will end up in a depression and you're not going to be safe now. The former president has largely leaned into talking points and platforms that cater to male voters. His healthy message for women has been focused mostly on safety and on access to ivf. He recently received some backlash for his remarks, saying that he'll protect women, quote, whether they like it or not.
And overnight here in North Carolina, he referred to himself as the, quote, father of fertilization. And Kristen, at that same rally, the former president laughed at and leaned into some crude comments from a supporter who shouted that Vice President Harris, quote, worked on the corner, a phrase that's used to describe prostitution. Mr. Trump said that, quote, this place is amazing.
Just remember, it's other people saying it, not me and Kristen. This is representative of the tone that has turned off female voters that we've talked to across battleground states and here in North Carolina, where the former president is playing a bit of defense despite the fact that he won the state in two Consecutive elections. Kristen Dash, a fantastic job getting that phone interview. We're going to talk with Steve Konaki about that.
I will pull that you mentioned. Thank you so much. Today, Vice President Harris is in Michigan working to shore up the blue Wall, her simplest path to winning the White House. Nearly 2.8 million people have already cast ballots and early in person voting ends today.
Mecca Schaffender joins us from Detroit. So, Yamiche, what are you hearing from inside the Harris campaign? And I know you spoke with the vice president earlier this week. Well, good morning, Kristen.
From battleground Michigan. The Harris campaign is feeling cautiously optimistic as the vice president delivers a closing argument centered both on attacking former President Trump as a danger to democracy and on outlining her optimistic vision for the future. And this week, an exclusive interview with me. Harris said if elected, on her first day as president, she put forth a package of bills centered on lowering the cost of living for Americans and that the economy will be her top priority.
Meanwhile, senior Harris campaign officials say their internal battle shows they are winning battleground voters who have made up their minds in the last week by double digits. Still, Harris is doing everything possible to avoid the blue wall crumbling like they did in 2016. Hence today she's here campaigning in Detroit and East Lansing. Harris also tells me they have a big operation Focus on Dearbor Michigan, which has a significant Muslim community in the state.
That source said Harris has, quote, meaningful support from local leaders there and some national Muslim groups. But Harris campaign events have been often interrupted by pro Palestinian protesters calling attention to the civilian death toll in Gaza. So there's still a question of whether those voices will negatively impact her by staying home or voting third party president. Yeah, the all important blue wall.
Great job getting that interview with the vice president. Thank you, Yamiche. Turning now to our brand new NBC News poll, national political correspondent Steve Fornacki is here to walk us through all of the numbers. Steve, this is the moment we have been waiting for.
What does this poll show us? Yeah, I mean, fittingly, isn't it? At the very end, we find a tie. Nationally, 49% for Harris, 49% for Trump.
Really? That's what we found when we last pulled this a couple weeks ago. We go under the hood here and look at some of the other numbers. There's this question of enthusiasm.
A couple notable things here. This is the share of voters who are calling themselves very interested in this election. You can see it stands at 77, which is down from 2020. We had that historic turnout.
Also, interestingly here, the interest is lower among Hispanic voters and black voters. Typically, you would say that is bad news for Democrats. But this year, keep in mind, among black voters, that could be very troubling for Democrats. But among Spanish voters, the Trump votes are hoping for big strides.
They've been seeing that in the polls. If that does not translate into election day votes, that could be trouble for them. Then we come to the issues that voters say that matter most to them and how they rate the candidates. And I think again, notably, Harris continues to do best on abortion, 20 point advantage there.
Trump continues to do best on inflation, cost of living and advantage there. 12th, this is something to watch on election day because of course, she's actually doing better on abortion than Trump is doing on inflation and cost of living. We'll have to see how that pans out the voters. Absolutely.
I mean, continue to take a look here, this other issue, we talked about it in our last poll, too, the dueling approval ratings. This is sort of an albatross for Harris here. Her administration that she's a part of Joe Biden's approval rating sits at just 41%. And then there's this twist.
Donald Trump, retrospectively, do you now approve of how he did his president in our poll? 48%. Almost. Almost half.
Given that approval rating, we have to pause Again because 48% is higher than the approval ratings he was getting when he was president. Steve, really striking to see that. Exactly. So is that a hidden advantage there for Trump in summer?
Then there's this question too. We just hear all the stories, all the images from early voting and look at this. Two thirds of voters in our polls, they've either voted already or they're going to vote early on election day. One third of the electorate actually saying they will turn out and vote then.
And you can see we saw a bit of this in 2020. Remember the early vote here, more Harris friendly in our poll that election day vote. That's the big wild card. You don't know what that turnout will look like on election Day.
But if Trump has an advantage there, you know, see if it's enough to overcome what he could potentially lose in the early side. And then the gender gap again, we've talked about this throughout the we've talked about this for decades. Trump up 18 with men, Harris 16 with women. That is 34 point gender gap by about 10 points.
If this happens, this would be the biggest gender gap ever recorded. Stunning. And his league with men bigger than her league with women. It's an interesting turnabout from, I think what we've seen in the past, in some cases here.
And you can just take a look here. These are the battleground states. We got some new polls this morning. I mean, yeah, what can you say?
These are the averages. The most lopsided, quote unquote, 1.9 points for Trump in Arizona. So razor tight in the. Razor tight in the battleground state.
Yeah, tight as a ticket. It comes as we're getting that striking new poll out of Iowa. Dasha mentioned it. What can you tell us about that?
Wow, this has thrown the political world for a loop because neither party go back here. Neither party has been treating Iowa as a battleground at presidential level. Remember, Donald Trump did incredibly well here in 16 and 21 by more than 8 points. This would be if this actually happened.
Harris ahead by three over Trump in Iowa. That would be an 11 point shift for Harris in Iowa. What is the climate in Iowa? One thing that might be notable here is you look at where Harris is drawing her support from this Des Moines registered poll among women, 20 point advantage over Trump.
This is particularly strong for her. Independent women and senior women. Trump obviously doing better with men. But one thing to keep in mind, abortion has been front and center there with that new six week ban that went into effect this summer.
That gender gap on display yet again. Fantastic stuff. We'll talk about throughout the show. Steve Kornacki, great stuff.
Thank you so much. And joining me now is Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Senator Warnock, welcome back to Meet the Press. Good morning.
Always great to be here with you. Well, it is always great to be having you, especially on this very significant Sunday. Let's start off by talking about the results of our latest poll. Senator, 66% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track.
As you know, historically, incumbent parties don't win re election when the number is that high. Do you believe that Vice President Harris should have distanced herself more from President Biden and sooner? I believe, as this poll indicates, that this is a change election and the voters in that regard have a very clear choice. They are saying that they want to turn the page.
Donald Trump wants to turn back. It's in the slogan, it's in the proposals that he lays out when he actually says something. He wants to make America great again. He wants to move back.
We're not going back. We're moving forward. And I think you're seeing that. I'm feeling it here on the ground.
The energy, the momentum is with Kamala Harris because she represents the future. She represents the hope and the promise of America, a country that is always forward looking. And you have a 78 year old president who wants to go back. I hear you talking about the fact that it's a change election.
She only narrowly leads former President Trump on that point. And when you were running for reelection, you walked a very fine line when it came to President Biden in terms of distancing yourself, really holding him a bit at an arm's length. You were successful in that regard. Should she have done the same?
What I did was I focused on the people that I was seeking to represent and that's what Kamala Harris is doing. Every single day. Donald Trump is making a selection about himself and about what's good for him. In fact, he has an enemies list.
She has a to do list. And among and on that list is protecting women and their right to choose. Donald Trump said he will protect women and he goes on to say, I will protect women whether they want it or not. I don't know about you, but even as a man, that sounds rather ominous coming from the mouth of a convicted sexual predator.
We don't need a predator. We need a president in the Oval Office. And that person is clearly Kamala Harris. I think the voters are seeing that.
And I believe that this will be a tight race as a nation about country in this moment. But the momentum is with her. Well, let's talk about something that happened this week. The Vice President was delivering her closing argument at the Ellipse in Washington.
As you know, at the same time, President Biden seemed to refer to Donald Trump's supporters as garbage in reference to some comments that were made by a comedian. Now, the president quickly walked those comments back. He said no, he was purely talking about the rhetoric. But do you believe that President Biden clouded stepped on Kamala Harris's closing argument in a critical moment of this race.
Senator, as the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church where Martin Luther King Jr. Served, I think that we all need to elevate the character and the tone of our political discourse. And that's what Kamala Harris is doing. She is a joyful warrior.
She is the candidate. And she is saying that we need to turn the page on this. You know, I think about the fact that ever since Donald Trump came down at escalator, American political discourse, the nature of the family conversation that we're having as American people has been going down. And thankfully we have a candidate who's looking, who's forward looking and who is lifting that conversation up.
He has an enemy's list. He Thinks that people who disagree with him are the enemy. She's inviting them to sit with her at the table. I think that's what a leader looks like.
Senator, let's talk about another aspect of this race. Polls have consistently shown that Kamala Harris is trailing where President Biden was when it comes to black voters. Former president Barack Obama, as you know, had a pretty blunt message for black male voters. He called them out for, quote, not feeling the idea of a woman president.
Do you believe agree with former president Barack Obama? I can tell you what I'm feeling on the ground. I've been all over this country to several of the battleground states. I was in Michigan a couple weeks ago in a black fraternity house, my own fraternity.
I spent time in barbershops. I've been encountering folks, obviously in my church and other churches. And there is momentum for Kamala Harris. And the more voters hear about her, including black men, the more they like her.
Look, I've been through this. Folks were saying, and you know, it was hand wringing when I was running, and folks were saying, well, we're not sure about this turnout. Let me tell you something. Black men are not going to show up in droves and waves voting for Donald Trump.
They're not. And it's because they know who he is. This is the man who took out a full page ad in the New York Times saying that the Central park five, these young men of color, should get the death penalty for what was indeed a heinous crime. And when it was proven that they were innocent, he doubled down.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, understands the concerns of the African American community. She's laid out a plan to support and strengthen black businesses, women owned businesses, because she understands that small businesses are the backbone of our country. I'm proud of our coalition. It looks like America.
And I believe that come Tuesday, while it's gonna be a tight race, I believe the country is going to get this right. Here's my concern. We can all go back and forth. You know, I don't pay much attention to polls.
I, I really trust what I feel on the ground. The race will be decided on Tuesday. We are seeing record turnout and the Harris campaign, to their credit, is doing the hard work. They knocked on 56,000 doors in Georgia this past Saturday, so they're putting in the work.
But the race will be decided Tuesday. We need everybody to show up. All right, Senator Warnock, we've got a jam packed show, so I will have to save my other questions for next time. But we covered a lot of ground.
Thank you so much for being here on this Sunday before Election Day. We really appreciate it. Happy Sunday morning, everybody. And to you.
When we come back, Republican Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota joins me next. Welcome back. And join me now is Republican Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota.
Governor Burgum, welcome back to MEET THE press. Kristen, great to be with you. Good morning. Good morning.
Thank you for being here on the Sunday before Election Day. Great to have your perspective. Let's start off by talking about women voters and something that Nikki Haley said in particular. She's, of course, Trump's former primary rival, former UN Ambassador.
She said she does not believe the former president's closing message is resonating with women voters. Listen to what she had to say. This is not a time for them to get overly masculine with this bromance thing that they've got going. 53 of the electorate are women.
Women will vote. They care about how they're being talked to and they care about the issues. They need to remember that. Governor, do you think that Mr.
Trump's closing message is resonating with persuadable women voters? Well, I think the President Trump's closing messages are go beyond gender, they go beyond identity, they go beyond race, they go beyond all these things because what he talks about every day is the things that affect all Americans, whether you're a Democrat, an independent Republican. Because again, when I'm on the ground, like I'm here in Pennsylvania today, you know, people are saying, hey, inflation is killing me. The borders are a concern, safety in our cities, worried about the economy.
And they're in the jobs with this horrible jobs report we had on Friday. So I think that the issues that he's talking about are resonating voters. I think that's why when you see the polls that we've got a race that's very close. But President Trump is outperforming in all these polls where he was in 16 and 20.
So I'm very confident that the message that he's delivering that lifts up everyone is going to be winning message on Tuesday. Well, speaking of polls, of course, we have our poll which shows the race is all tied up. And then we have this new poll out of Iowa which shows that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Trump in Iowa 47 to 44%. He had the lead by four points just about a month ago.
So do you think that he is failing to win over that he's effectively losing women voters. Does he have a problem with women voters, Governor? Well, I think there's an Emerson poll that came out in Iowa that's got President Trump plus 10. I guess we'll find out on Tuesday where that is.
But I was in Iowa the night that President Trump won 98 out of 99 counties when there's a lot of choices for other Republican candidates for him to vote for that night. I think his strength there is across the entire state. And we know that polls vary a lot based on who you're sampling. Age, rural, urban, all of these things can matter.
But I think again, if you take the average of those last two polls, I think Trump's still going to confidently win Iowa. I'd be surprised, completely shocked if that comes anywhere close to being the fact in Iowa. I think your poll showing it being tied nationally is more accurate because I think that's the feeling that I get on the ground is a very tight race. It's going to be decided on Tuesday.
But the momentum in the last week that I felt on the ground, including yesterday being at that 10 state football game, is that the energy from all demographics is very, very positive. And in Pennsylvania, Trump's going to win because of the energy issues. Pennsylvania, he's going to win Michigan because of the auto workers. And so I think in some of these swings, state states, it's in Trump's favor.
Governor, let me ask you about a big story this week. The campaign continuing to deal with the fallout from the offensive comments about Puerto Rico made by a supporter of former President Trump by that comedian at that rally last weekend. The Puerto Rican community in Pennsylvania factors almost half a million people in that critical state, some saying they were absolutely furious about the comments, hurt that former President Trump hasn't apologized. Do you think that this incident could cost former President Trump the state of Pennsylvania, which is critical to winning?
Well, I was there last Sunday at Madison Square Garden when this Insult comic at 3pm in the afternoon hours before President Trump even arrived at Madison Square Garden, made a comment and the crowd was groaning. I mean, there was not approval from a very supportive Trump audience. So this is not how Trump supporters feels, not how President Trump feels. And then, and then, of course, as you reported earlier today, you know, a comic that no one's ever heard of says something versus the president states calling half the voters in the country garbage.
President Biden, I mean, I think this shows two things. One is the disrespect of this administration for Americans and their concerns, whether it's the border, whether it's inflation, but it also reflects what we've seen is that the vice President Harris was part of this cover up of Joe Biden's capacity. Well, speaking of that, Governor, former President Trump had this to say back in September on that point about garbage. Listen, it's not her.
It's the people that surround her. They're scum. They're scum and they want to take down our country. They are absolute garbage.
So, Governor, is it hypocritical to fixate on President Biden's comments considering Donald Trump used the word garbage to describe Kamala Harris's supporters? Well, I think again, what we're seeing here again this week, again the parsing of comments from the last seven days is not what's going to turn in the election. I mean, I would be thrilled to be on the show talking about the fact that North Korea is sending, you know, troops to Ukraine, that Israel is getting ready to confront Iran over their nuclear weapon. But this is American politics.
This is the season of the last week before election. There's always been, there's always a lot of name calling in the last week. This has all happened before. But I think at the end of the day, the voters are gonna make a decision about, you know, their own condition and people telling them what they should be enraged about because he or she said this thing is not the same as out a person's lived experience.
If their lived experiences, they're having trouble making their paycheck pay for their food, their gas, their clothing, their rent or their mortgage payment that that outweighs. In the end, the economy is what's going to drive voters on Tuesday, not what somebody may not have said. Most Americans don't have time to listen to all of these, the soap opera of which comments people should be concerned about. All right.
Well, Governor Burgam, as you know, enjoy talking foreign policy with you always. So we'll have you back to talk about that. But thank you for being here just days before the election to talk politics. We really appreciate it.
Great. Thank you, Kristen. Thank you. And when we come back, the closing message in the final days of the race, what will make a difference in this razor tight election?
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Visit nbcnews.comxfinity for full offer terms and details. Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News chief political analyst Chuck Todd, former White House press secretary Jen Psaki, host of Inside with Jen Psaki Christina Lodono Rooney, senior Washington correspondent for TE and Mark Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Peds.
Thanks to all of you for being here in our election headquarters studio. It's finally here. Here we are. And shout.
I have to take it off with you. Set the scene of where we are. You have our poll which shows this race's deadlock hasn't really moved from our last poll. And then you have that poll out of Iowa.
What do you make of these results? Well, I'm gonna set the Iowa poll result aside for a little bit. Look, I've looked at there's, there's, there's three outcomes of this race that we can all stare at that are staring us. Right.
If you look at it through the prism of history, what happens when they're unpopular presidencies? Well, that's advantage Trump. When you look at the last 10 days, who's had a better campaign? Who's had a better closing?
Well, that's clearly Harris. Trump has had a terrible last 10 days as far as who he's been trying to speak to and the data points to attack. Right. We're all trying to figure out campaigns don't matter how broken is the information ecosystem.
Right. You have certain things like that. So, you know, that's how I entered this race. And I think we're, we're all so spooked by shifts in the electorate that were missed in 16 and 20.
Certainly think there's a lot of questionable polling techniques this year. As for the Iowa poll, look, if you know how she does her polling, she does not, she does not allow herself to be prejudiced by previously. So she's always trying to figure out what's the electorate going to be not try to tell you the result based on the electorate that was it is why she's had more success than many other pollsters. So it may be that she's over sampled Democrats a little bit her poll, they've made it through her survey.
So maybe Harris doesn't win by three. But I do think it's an important signal. We have seen that Harris is overperforming with older white voters. So if you're over performing with older white voters in Penny was downstairs in Michigan, you're likely doing well in Iowa.
And I got another state to keep an eye on election night to see if it narrows. Kansas, another state that is predominantly white, growing college education based in that state as well. And we've seen some numbers indicating that that was a single digit state as well. So if that is your signal, well that is then the path to how Harris wins this presence.
Jen, what do you make of what Chuck is saying? That the demographic that we're looking at coming out of this Iowa poll coming against backdrop as Chuck says, you're dealing with a president who is deeply unpopular and Vice President Harris is the vice president right now. That's true. But if here's the Harris team and you're waking up this morning and Anne Seltzer who is the queen of all polling just has a poll with you ahead of Iowa, you're feeling not because you're banking on Iowa being in the win column for you, but because of what Chuck said, because it could be a good sign of some demographic group been trying to make up ground with which is older white voters.
She's already coalesced and brought together the Democratic base for the most part brought it back closer to the 2020 numbers for Biden. So that is a good sign if you're the Harris scene. You're also feeling very good in that Iowa poll about the gender gap. You're feeling good about that when you're looking at early vote numbers, although I wouldn't really read it to really good numbers, but you're feeling good about that and you're feeling good about late deciders which showed up in that New York Times poll, 5,842 late deciders moving for Harris, including a big gap in the Sunbelt.
So you have a couple things you're feeling good about even if you're not betting on I will be in the wind Call Mark Short. The thing that Republicans say they feel good about is the fact that Republicans are turning out in bigger numbers in early voting than we have seen in the past two elections. What do you make of that? You think the story is actually a little bit more complicated?
I think they should feel good about it. I think the reality is you want to bank those votes, but you never know what's happening if you're sick or whether or whatnot. So I think it's a good data point for Republicans, but I don't think it's a turn of Kristen, let's keep in mind that four years ago, Trump told Republicans that voting early voting money is fraudulent. Don't do it.
So if you're over performing that, it's a pretty low baseline. But I think there's something else missing in that I will poll as well. It showed that 89 of Republicans voted for Trump. That's a big 11 of Republicans who may go somewhere else.
I'm not questioning Trump's gonna win Iowa. I think that's that poll over sample Democrats. But if you're having a defection at the top of the ticket, I think that's a big challenge. You don't see this because Republicans early voters, Arizona last two cycles, 150,000 voters at the top of the ticket have not selected Donald Trump as a Republican ballot.
So that's missing in some of the data that's been coming back so far. Yeah. And that's really the question if what we saw in Iowa raises those types of questions in states with similar demographics. Christine, let's talk about what I was talking about with Governor Burke.
This issue that the Trump campaign has been dealing with throughout the week, the fallout after that comedian made those really offensive comments about Puerto Rico. Based on our reporting, folks in Pennsylvania, other states are quite angry. Does it make a difference, particularly when the races this close? Well, first of all, Christian, I would say it's not about what the comedians said.
It's about Donald Trump not coming out and defending Puerto Ricans and not apologizing for his words. That's one thing. Then if you go to the Latino belt in Pennsylvania, we have anecdotal evidence. I can't say I don't have numbers where Latinos that had already voted for Donald Trump are knocking on doors trying to rally the Harris vote because they are insulted.
They're trying to remind the country that they're not immigrants, they're voters. And it's interesting to contrast it with the poll that came before, after the dogs eating dogs and cats where Latino said he's insulting other immigrants. They're not talking about us. But the ones, the Puerto Ricans that are sticking with Donald Trump, are those the evangelical vote because of the abortion issue, that works the other way.
They believe it's against a religion. And then the democracy issue, that's also big. And within the Latino community, the threat to democracy they have heard from the, from Donald Trump is Kamala Harris. They think she's a socialist, she's a communist.
He defined her like that and she did it. Fight back. And it just raises the question, do these last minute gaffs make a difference? We'll have to see.
Great stuff. Thank you. We have a lot more coming up with the panel. Stand by, guys.
When we come back, could the battleground actually expand? What does that stunning new Iowa pole mean for the race to 270? Steve Kornacki rejoins us. Stick around next.
Welcome back. Could the 2024 battleground expand? That's the big question after that stunning new Iowa poll overnight. Steve Kornacki is back with me to break down what it could mean for the road to 270.
Steve, what do you think? Yeah, Chris, I mean, that is the question here. Is this more of a state specific phenomenon what this poll is picking up in Iowa? Remember, abortion has been front and center the last few months.
A six week ban went into effect statewide over the summer. There's two congressional races. There are millions of dollars being spent in the state on the issue of abortion. Is it driving something in Iowa we're not going to see necessarily elsewhere, or is it a ripple effect that we will feel elsewhere?
The most obvious place to look if it is, would be in Wisconsin. I just want to show you this. This is what Iowa looked like in 2020. Look at all the red on there.
Now I'm just gonna go back to the last election before Donald Trump became the Republican standard bearer. This was Barack Obama in 2012. Look how much blue you saw on this map. There's no state in the country with more Obama.
Trump. The second most, though, would be right here in Wisconsin. And Again, this is 2012 in Wisconsin. This is Obama.
This is Trump last time. Look at all that red. Demographically, lots of similarities, lots of overlaps. So if something is happening in Iowa that's spilling over more broadly, this is the first place you would look, Wisconsin.
But as you say, Kristen, the fact of this poll catching everybody's surprise raises a reality we have not seen much polling outside the core of battleground state this entire campaign, we've just assumed. Both parties have assumed. There's not much to see there. But if there is, where else could you look?
I'll give you one to look at early on election night and it's New Hampshire Polls closed mostly at 7 o'. Clock. Biden won this by 7. 2016, though this was the closest state that Clinton won that she came the closest to losing.
Look at that 3,000 vote margin. JD Vance is in New Hampshire today for the Trump campaign. This could be an early tested. In general, things are happening outside the battleground we haven't been talking about.
About. All right, Steve, covering all of the angles for us today. We really appreciate it. And when we come back, after felony convictions, assassination attempts, and Biden's bowing out, the 2024 election has been historic on so many levels.
We'll have much more with the panel next. Stay with us. My Pamela. Take my Pamela.
The American people want to stop the chaos and end the drama with a cool new set. Mamala. Get back in our pajamalas and watch a wrong Kamala like Legally Blondela and start decorating for Christmas. Fala Lalala.
Because what do we always say? Keep Kamala and carry on ala the vice president with a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live last night, part of her closing strategy. Christina, start us off. Let's fast forward to Tuesday night.
What are you going to be watching for in this unprecedented, extraordinary election? None of us thought we would ever be here. We never thought we'd have Kamala Harris almost, you know, being tied with Donald Trump. So what I'm watching for is what this election is going to teach us, teach our country the results.
We're gonna have so much to learn about the new voters, the new parties. And I'm really looking forward to seeing if the power of the women, the woman voter, and the power of the Latino vote if this sleeping giant finally woke up and is making itself out. Heard it. It's a powerful way to put it.
Chuck, what are you gonna be watching for until that point about a sleeping giant? And also new voters, which we're tracking quite close. Look, I think ultimately I'm paying attention to we have a 2016 reverse effect, meaning I do believe a lot of voters didn't know what they were going to do 2016. They went and decided what they didn't want.
Right. And they voted for. They voted for something different. They knew what they didn't want.
They didn't know what they were going to get. I do believe that the voter that walks in the booth that is thinking about Trump is probably voting for Harris and the voter that walks in the booth that's thinking about Biden is probably voting for Trump. For what it's worth. But let's sit back.
Whatever happens, this is the beginning of something or the end of something. We'll continue to be in the middle of something. We're about to do something we haven't done since the 19th century and that has had two, just finished two straight long term presidents. The likelihood of this being a one term presidency is high, not low because we are a country that had been voting against.
We vote against Hillary Clinton 16 and got Trump, we vote against Trump and 28 got by. I think this is another vote against election. Another vote for this isn't we say here we think it's about all these issues. This is really a cultural like this is people believe they're voting for a way of life.
A good chunk of both sides of this, which is why nothing gets resolved after Tuesday night. Such a fascinating way to put a. Chuck and Jen, you obviously worked for the Obama campaign, which was very much an election where people were voting for something. Particularly if you look at some of the margins and some of these battleground states.
What are you watching for? Just reflecting on what Chuck said. Yeah. And I'll just reflect on something quickly.
Christina said two one, I think that for people, including a lot of people who are out there voting for Harris or people who might just be voting against Trump, for them, it's bigger than issues. There's lots of issues we'll dive into the economy, abortion, etc. It is about morality and character and does that matter in leadership? It's also about preservation of democracy.
And is that something we should stand for? Liz Cheney and Kamala Harris probably disagree on 80 plus percent of issues. They agree on that that does that matter? So I'm watching that and just add to what Christina said on the women's vote.
Trump won white women pretty sizably over the last two cycles. It's not just about whether Harris wins white women or not, but is this the year of the women in the sense the power of the women's voice in politics. Not about electing women, it would be electing women, but about abortion rights and other issues. And is that something that pushes the outcome in one direction?
And speaking of which, your former boss, former Vice President Mike Pence, not endorsing Donald Trump, he hasn't come out and endorsed Kamala Harris. But what do you think A second Trump presidency, Mark having served in the first one, would mean for the country. Well, Kristen, roughly 70 to 75% of American people think we're on the wrong track right now. The top two issues of border security and the conversation economy.
This should be a Republican landslide year. If Trump fails, I think it's a testament of people view as a fighter who withstood a couple assassination attempts. But if he fails and Democrats win despite everything being Republican's favor, I think it should be an enormous reckoning inside our party, our movement and a tremendous indictment against our party did this election cycle. We abandoned our position on life, abandoned our position on marriage, abandoned our position in support of free markets and free trade, abandoned our national security positions.
Now we're the biggest defenders of government run health care. And I think that if that were the case, then I think it would necessitate true reckoning inside our party, in our movement. It may also be that you shouldn't nominate an anti Democratic felon. You know, I mean it may not be about the issues, so it may be about the person who's at the top.
There's lots of ways to look at it. I'm not gonna sit and say the Democrats, the paragons of virtue and the defenders of democracy. I think there's plenty of evidence that when you nominate somebody who didn't win any one vote, it's hard to suggest the defenders of democracy. But I do think that Republicans in this cycle have been what they traditionally stood before.
And so I think there should be a recognizing party. Chuck. Well, look, I. The fascinating aspect of this is neither party is going to be satisfied.
They're not going to accept defeat. The question is you accept defeat because you don't like the vote count or you're not accepted because you don't like how the party did it. Right. I, you know, my greatest fear about this election is if Trump wins.
I think it for a generation is what they believe this is how you conduct yourself in politics and that this will cement this for generation. I fear the transactional nature of him could actually turn the party into a kleptocracy. We're not careful. And one thing about political parties, when they lose, they end up trying to emulate the party that wins.
Not necessarily. And while Democrats have been trying to be the anti version of this, losing two out of three, there's going to be its own reckoning inside the left. They could have some saying, hey, if you can't beat a joint, you know, whether it's lying or exaggerating, whatever you want. I do think that that is, that is what I think is on about, about our politics going forward for another half generation.
I don't know if it's about being the same as the behavior, but I do think we were just talking about this. It may make the Democratic Party less inclined to take risks. In terms of risks, I say in quotes, putting a woman at the top of the ticket, a woman of color top of the ticket. And does it make Democrats more reserved and less riskier, which I think would be a huge shame.
Kristen, we have less than a minute. I'm going to give you the final word about 30 seconds, what Chuck said. I just, whatever happens, I just hope it doesn't normalize politics the way it has been conducted from both sides. And I, I hope there's a much greater level of civility.
And I don't think we're gonna have another January 6th because I don't think people are gonna go to bat for Donald Trump because they have been abandoned by, by him. The ones that are, that are in jail right now, I think everyone hoping for a peaceful election cycle. Thank you all for a really thoughtful panel on this really important Sunday. And thank you for watching.
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