OD #20 - The budget that was supposed to save young Aussies .... but didn't

They called it the most ambitious budget in decades and framed it as a win for young Australians, but when we read the fine print, the housing story gets uncomfortable fast. Oscar goes solo to unpack the 2026 Australian federal budget and what it means for anyone under 35 trying to buy a first home, get financially stable, or even just keep up with rent. We walk through the two big levers: negative gearing being restricted to new homes and the capital gains tax shake-up that replaces the 50% CGT discount with a new approach to taxing real gains for newly purchased assets, with a minimum 30% rate. On paper, it sounds like it should cool investor demand and help first home buyers. In practice, the grandfathering rules mean existing investors keep many of the best benefits, while new buyers face the changed settings. We also talk through why many Australians are wary of new builds and off-the-plan purchases, which complicates the government’s push toward construction. Then we zoom out to the real-world pressure cooker: inflation running hot, repeated interest rate hikes, and how even a small rate move can wreck borrowing capacity for first-time buyers. Most importantly, we dig into the second-order effects people ignore, especially the risk that rents rise when established property becomes less attractive to investors and rental supply tightens. Finally, we call out what’s missing from the budget if the goal is true housing affordability: more housing supply, better zoning, faster approvals, and stamp duty reform. If you’re trying to make sense of the Australian property market right now, listen through, share it with a mate, and leave a review so more people can find the show. What do you think this budget changes for you?Did you like this episode?Support the show🎧 Enjoyed this episode? Follow us on Instagram @zekeguenthrothofficial @oscardonproperty and @assetroad for daily insights, property breakdowns, and behind-the-scenes updates. Explore more at www.assetroad.com.auTop 10 Finance Podcasts in Australia on Feedspots ranking- https://podcast.feedspot.com/australian_personal_finance_podcasts/Disclaimer: The information provided in this podcast is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. It has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs. Asset Road Pty Ltd recommends you seek independent financial, legal, taxation or other advice as required. All investments carry risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.