Oil Shock and Mortgage Rates Update

Oil Shocks, AI Disruption, and the Markets Navigating UncertaintyFrom Corona, California, and Newport Beach, KP checks in during a week where geopolitical conflict, oil supply disruptions, and economic data collided to create a confusing moment for markets. Normally, global conflict triggers a flight to quality that pushes bond yields lower and improves mortgage rates. But this time, the bond market reacted differently because the shock came from the oil supply chain—reviving concerns about energy-driven inflation.In this episode, KP breaks down how tensions affecting global shipping routes and oil supply are influencing interest rates, inflation expectations, and the broader financial markets. He explains why the bond market briefly signaled lower rates before geopolitical events pushed yields higher again, and what the movements in the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields may be telling us about the Federal Reserve’s next moves.KP also dives into the growing role of artificial intelligence and technology investment, highlighting massive capital flows into AI infrastructure and chips. These investments are reshaping supply chains, corporate strategy, and the future of productivity across industries.At the same time, the housing market is entering the critical spring purchase season. KP shares real-time insights from mortgage industry activity, including rising lock volumes, improving mortgage spreads, and why the coming months could be much busier for lenders and homebuyers alike.Episode Highlights:00:00 – Why this geopolitical conflict didn’t trigger the usual “flight to quality” in bonds01:00 – Late-night market update from Corona, California02:30 – AI disruption and the idea of “disintermediation” in software04:00 – Geopolitics, drone warfare, and the oil supply chain shock05:40 – Why oil shipping disruptions impact inflation and interest rates07:00 – Signals from the two-year Treasury and what markets expect from the Fed08:40 – GDP slowdown, inflation trends, and what it means for mortgage rates10:00 – Stock market vs. bond market rotations11:00 – AI demand, Nvidia chips, and the technology arms race13:20 – Jobs report surprises and the return of market volatility15:00 – Oil prices, energy inflation, and mortgage rate implications16:40 – Spring purchase season and rising mortgage lock activity18:00 – Why markets may still be navigating a “soft landing.”19:00 – Looking ahead to Fed meetings, economic data, and housing demandIn uncertain markets, understanding how money flows between energy, technology, and bonds can reveal where rates—and opportunity—may move next.Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense#Economy #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #InterestRates #FederalReserve #AI #OilMarkets #BondMarket #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense