EPISODE · Jul 10, 2026 · 8 MIN
OLFG - The Fourth Question
from COGPLEXITI: Decision Analysis for Operational Leaders. · host Jayson Coil
Three questions are standard for situational awareness — what was, what is, what's gonna be. The fourth keeps you honest: what would tell you you're wrong. A projection without a disconfirming indicator is a forecast you have already committed to. This episode covers why the trip-wire has to be set before the pressure to defend your read accumulates, and how to name it out loud so someone other than you is watching for it. The Operational Leader's Field Guide releases July 21. Order direct at cogplexiti.com/olfg through August 21 and the OLFG Companion is included free.
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OLFG - The Fourth Question
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