On The Record (10-06-26).

This week we diagnosed the economy as a giant zit—good numbers on the surface, all of it concentrated in AI investment and stock market gains for the top 10%, while wages fall below inflation, consumer confidence hits a 12-year low, and the 10-year Treasury just blew past its 2007 peak. Then we looked at what the pop actually looks like: a private credit unwind that drags the banks with it, a Fed that can’t buy its way out this time, and Scott Bessent left holding the bag. The Buffett Indicator is sitting at 235%. Maybe that’s why he retired... Chapters Intro: 00:00:42 Quick Takes: 00:01:24 Max Notes: 00:06:35 Killer Left Take of the Week: 00:21:10 Chart of the Week: 00:22:15 Outro: 00:23:16 Resources CBS Sunday Morning: Alan Alda on fighting Parkinson’s with laughter This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von: Zohran Mamdani NBC News: U.S. bombers scrambled out of U.K. airbase after threats CNBC TV-18: Pete Hegseth’s ‘Just Warriors’ Speech: ‘No Fatties, No Wimps, No Radicals’ Bloomberg Television: Brazil Real Surges After Bolsonaro Takes Surprising Lead ABC News: US monitoring reported fatal case of pneumonic plague in Russia WSWS.org: With complicity of media and Democrats, Trump prepares major escalation of Iran war ADP: National Employment Report Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary Steve Rattner on Substack Schwab: Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight Bloomberg: Treasury 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2002 on Rate Outlook Squire Patton Boggs: The Private Credit Market: The Data Behind the Headlines Federal Reserve: Monetary Policy Report – July 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Remarks at 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City CNBC: Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes for the first time since 2023 Yahoo! Finance: Trump slams the Fed rate hike, says he told Warsh ‘you might as well vote with the board’ CNBC: Warsh’s regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistance CNBC: Warsh faces Fed independence test as Bessent moves in on central bank’s turf PWC: Private credit’s next phase — growth under pressure International Monetary Fund: Bank Lending to Nonbank Financial Institutions Continued To Increase Rapidly in 2025 Democracy! Now: Lula vs. Bolsonaro (Again): Brazil’s Presidential Race Goes to Runoff as Right Wing Makes Gains MacroMicro: US - Total Market Cap (% of GDP) UNFTR Resources Video: On The Record 10-06-26 (Trump’s Economy is a Giant Zit.) Episode: Private Credit: Just Because We’re Not Talking About It Doesn’t Mean It’s Not a Problem. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility Intro music by Hold Fast. Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/memberships