On the threshold of a Liberal Majority

Roy L Hales/ Cortes Currents - Between the opposition MPs who crossed the floor and three by-elections coming up on April 13, Mark Carney's Liberal government is on the threshold of forming a majority government. Jessica Wegg, the Green Party candidate during the last two elections, observed, “We're two votes away from the Liberals having a majority. I don't know that it matters that much to Carney. His policies skew so far toward what Conservatives would want anyway, he is getting lots and lots of support. I think it would be risky for him to call a general election because it's not necessary. As he gets closer and closer to having a majority without a general election, it would be harder and harder to sell to Canadians that it would be necessary to call everybody to the polls again, spend all this money again on a general election when he's doing everything he wants and just ramming through bills without even having a majority.” Narrator: In another one of his social media posts, Aaron Gunn declared, "Mark Carney is currently attempting what is maybe the least democratic thing in Canadian history, cobbling together an illegitimate majority he didn't earn through backroom deals and who knows what else." Only this is not the first time MPs have crossed the floor. Most Canadian Prime Ministers have had opposition MP's join their party. The current record is held by John A MacDonald's Conservative government, which saw 9 MPs  join them. They are closely followed by Jean Chrétien's Liberals, who gained 8.  Stephen Harper, whose Conservative government benefited from 3 such crossings, once said,  "Members of Parliament should have that freedom and be accountable to their constituents for their decisions at the next election. But I will say this, Mr. Speaker: in my observation, the only parties that really had this as an obsession are the parties that no one ever crosses to." Cortes Currents: In addition to the floor crossings, there will be three by-elections on Sunday, April 13, 2026.  Jennifer Lash explained, “We've had two Liberal ministers step down as they've taken on different positions, so by-elections are required. Then in Terrebonne, Quebec, the Liberals had won by one vote and that had to go to a by-election. Of those three by-elections, two of them are Liberal strongholds and it's pretty much assumed that they will go Liberal again. The Quebec by-election is really up for grabs. I've listened to people saying the Bloc are going to put everything they can into it and win. I've also heard that the polling shows the Liberals are going to win. So who knows? If the Liberals win those two Liberal strongholds (University–Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest) that they have in Ontario, that will bring us to 172 seats, which gets us to a one-seat majority. If we win in Terrebonne as well, that will get us to 173 seats, which means a slightly stronger majority.” “I’ve never seen a situation like this in Ottawa before, but it’s fascinating for political nerds like myself who love counting seats.”