One possible future

What this episode covers

As with all new year traditions, there are plenty of predictions regarding the upcoming year. Whether or not they come to fruition, the job market is actually looking up. So that will definitely play a role in how the year unfolds. And this will be especially so in virtual worlds. Prokofy Neva has some interesting predictions . I pretty much agree with all but #7, and to quote, “The Lindens will not only make an application for the i-Phone, which is “where it’s at”, they will get into the Augmented Reality business.” While I can see the lab trying to do that, I don’t see them as being successful. Interestingly, or perhaps not so, people are all a twitter about augmented reality and the possibility of SL being acquired. If the latter occurs, say bye-bye to second life as you knew it. Prokofy Neva opines they’ll be bought out in phases, with IBM the likely candidate, and the lab becoming content creators. Eddie Haskell listed a number of potential candidates including IBM, Microsoft, Sony, Facebook, and Google. And James Au seems to think that Microsoft is a possible candidate due to their Project Natal . I personally see Microsoft as an unlikely candidate “because” of their Project Natal. After all, graphics-wise and interactive-wise, Project Natal is heads above second life. Google is a maybe, primarily because of the Silicon Valley connection. I don’t see Sony hopping aboard for the same reasons I don’t see Microsoft hopping aboard. And facebook already has their social games that are not only lightweight but highly adaptable. And that leaves IBM. I am still somewhat skeptical, but if IBM were to purchase SL, I would expect them to dismantle it and create it anew as an education platform and corp offering. Possibly, even open sourcing the server code to augment their opensim project. And then show-casing a “new and improved” second life with a different fee schedule, content rules, etc. Now, if they don’t sell, I could see them continuing their ramp up attempt to make SL look more attractive to the general public, and thereby more marketable for something like an IPO. Though, honestly, at the rate they’re going, I do think they missed the IPO boat. Timing is, after all, everything. Then again, since our economy is starting on the upslope, all of that could change. However, as more and more people return to work, there will certainly be a decline in concurrent users. Not just for places like SL, but across the metaverse. And herein lies the key or danger (take your pick) to SL’s longevity. As people return to work and have more spending money, they’ll be picking up computers that can support systems, such as Blue Mars. They will also be more demanding and less forgiving. As for SL? They really need to figure out what they truly want to be when they grow up. Either that, or continue the path they’ve been on over the past year. A path that clearly shows ambivalence as well as one that involves alienating their core user base. As for other predictions? I highly doubt the lab will have mesh fully functional by the end of the year. Simply because such would not only require a major server overhaul, but they’d really have to junk the client as well. Though, I suspect they’ll simply add more crap code on top of what they already have. Sorry, I’ve read their client code folks. And it’s full of redundancies, multiple levels of unnecessary and complex inheritance...

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