Operation Epic Fury: Is America Really Winning Against Iran? │ Ilan Berman

GUEST BIO Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), headquartered on Capitol Hill. A leading expert on Iran, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Russian foreign policy, he has consulted for the CIA, the State Department, and the Department of Defense. He is a Board member of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, and has been called one of America’s “leading experts on the Middle East and Iran” by CNN. He is the author of Tehran Rising, among other books. X: @ilanberman | Website: ilanberman.com   KEY TOPICS The 47-year history of U.S.-Iran conflict since the 1979 Islamic Revolution Obama’s JCPOA and how $150 billion in sanctions relief accelerated Iran’s regional expansion Operation Midnight Hammer and last summer’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites Operation Epic Fury: the four phases and strategic objectives The Iranian opposition’s do-or-die moment for regime change The Iranian people’s protest cycle and why America keeps failing to support them Iran's proxy network: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Russia and China's role: drone tech transfers, Starlink jamming, and information warfare America’s $850M information budget vs. China’s $10 billion propaganda machine Gulf allies’ concerns: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain’s security needs after the conflict The IRGC’s consolidation of power and Iran’s transition to military dictatorship What American citizens can do to support the mission   TIMESTAMPED TOPIC BREAKDOWN 00:28 — Narrator introduction 00:32 — Jenny Beth introduces today’s topic: Operation Epic Fury 01:02 — Ilan Berman’s background and expertise at AFPC 03:22 — Jenny Beth requests the full Iran briefing 03:42 — The 47-year history: Iran’s conflict with America begins 04:48 — The 1979 Islamic Revolution and Iran’s ideological transformation 05:58 — Iran’s expansionist ideology and its nuclear advancement 07:03 — Obama’s JCPOA: $150 billion in sanctions relief to the Ayatollahs 08:07 — JCPOA aftermath and Iran’s expanded proxy network 09:11 — Israel attacks the nuclear program; Operation Midnight Hammer 10:08 — Why we’re back: ballistic missiles and delivery systems unaddressed 11:14 — What Operation Epic Fury is designed to accomplish 12:01 — Evaluating the operation: military vs. political picture 13:14 — The military plan: systematic, methodical, coordinated with Israel 14:16 — Political ambiguity and the disinformation narrative online 15:07 — The four phases of Operation Epic Fury explained 16:17 — The political endgame: the signal for Iranians to rise up 17:11 — Economic and political clocks ticking on the administration 18:01 — White House signals: regime change or a deal with the rump regime 19:02 — Iran’s strategy: attacking 13 neighboring Arab countries 19:55 — Gulf allies leaning in: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain 20:46 — What should America do to reassure Gulf partners? 23:44 — Why did Iran attack its neighbors? The strategic calculus 25:43 — The Iranian opposition: capability and will 26:08 — Potential Iran deal and what it means for the Iranian people 26:47 — America’s track record on regime change: hard lessons and humility 28:41 — The accelerating protest cycle and why America keeps forgetting to help 30:47 — The regime imported Iraqi and Yemeni militiamen to shoot protesters 31:59 — Targeting the tools of domestic repression: IRGC and Basij headquarters 33:04 — The White House 15-point negotiating plan and Iran’s response 33:34 — Voice of America and the information warfare crisis 34:11 — Radio Free Europe, Middle East Broadcasting Network, and radio vs. digital 36:50 — Why the U.S. information apparatus was dismantled after the Cold War 37:52 — Russia and China jamming Starlink inside Iran 38:50 — The information deficit: $850M U.S. vs. $10B China, $2.5B Russia 40:58 — The information war around the Iran narrative online 42:22 — Russia, China, and Iran: one axis or separate problem sets? 43:40 — Venezuela and Iran: Trump recognizes it’s one coordinated threat 44:40 — Ukraine, Russia, and what the Iran conflict signals to Beijing 45:04 — Ukraine’s fight as the opening front of Russian expansionism 46:07 — Zelensky’s outreach to Gulf countries and its message to Washington 48:16 — Russian drone technology transfer to Iran: more capable systems coming 49:13 — Taiwan: China’s military preparation for reunification 50:30 — American resolve in Iran being watched in Beijing 50:56 — Iran’s proxy network explained: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the IRGC 52:07 — Hezbollah in Lebanon: parliament seats, social services, and militia 53:10 — The contest for the soul of Lebanon 54:44 — The killing of Qasem Soleimani and its lasting impact on Iran’s proxies 55:24 — Iran’s transition from clerical regime to IRGC military dictatorship 56:26 — The new Supreme Leader and IRGC consolidating power 58:06 — What American citizens should do: the stakes and the information battle 01:00:18 — The danger of judging the conflict a failure too early 01:01:47 — Jenny Beth’s closing remarks and related episode reference 01:02:24 — Final invitation: subscribe, like, find the show on all platforms 01:02:51 — Narrator closing   LINKS Show website: jennybethshow.com TPPA: teapartypatriots.org Guest website: afpc.org | ilanberman.com Guest X: @ilanberman