Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs

Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back? In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry. They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other’s assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction & Framing the Debate1:27 Oren Cass: Economic Philosophy & American Compass4:02 Manufacturing, Family, and Community5:00 Free Trade, Comparative Advantage, and Policy8:30 Tariffs: US vs. China and Historical Context9:30 Do Tariffs Help US Manufacturing?15:00 Data, Indicators, and Economic Predictions22:00 Theory, History, and the Role of Economics28:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition38:00 Negotiation, Game Theory, and Policy Tools46:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition1:03:23 Negotiating with Allies and the Limits of Tariff Threats Resources: Find Oren on X: https://https://x.com/oren_cassAmerican Compass: https://americancompass.org/Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinionSubscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Stay Updated:Find a16z on YouTube: YouTubeFind a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Show on SpotifyListen to the a16z Show on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.