Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD: Predicting Recessions – Why 'Wisdom of Crowds' Rivals Machine Learning (Explained)

This episode delves into an OECD research paper that challenges conventional wisdom on forecasting recessions. We explore how a "wisdom of crowds" approach, averaging predictions from multiple simple models, can be as effective as advanced machine learning techniques like Random Forests for predicting economic downturns in OECD countries. Do you have thoughts on the best forecasting methods? Share them with us at [email protected]. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Harnessing the wisdom - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/harnessing-the-wisdom-of-crowds-to-assess-recession-risks-in-oecd-countries_d197200d/46880adc-en.pdf Keywords: Recession, Economic Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Machine Learning, Wisdom of Crowds, OECD