Over/Unders with Kevin Pelton

And now, below, host of two, the low post pack is in October 10th, preseason basketball is happening for the women in the other play game. The trades, the dust is settled except for all that dust around hardened, James Harden is like, just keeps on trucking, he's that camp, he's doing stuff, not just really happening, but we have a season to prepare for, we're talking about James Harden, the potential Clippers, fifth and Clippers rumors. It's time for a broad based preview and boy-o-boy people get ready to be either angry, at the machines, or happy at the machines, because Kevin Pelton and his super secret algorithm contained in a super computer, in his basement, has released its win projections for this upcoming season. It's full of surprises, it's full of confirmation, depending on your perspective.

There's a lot of stuff to get into, Mr. Pelton, how are you? I'm doing well, I was very excited to see when the inaction last night, even for the TV. Let's start there because rarely is a preseason game, must watch, actually almost never is a preseason game, must watch, must watch, what I have to admit, it was halfway through the first quarter before it was going on, and then I went back, started watching it from the beginning.

It turned into not just Victor Webman, on his debut at 20 points, 8 or 13 shooting, five rebounds, no assists in four tournaments. Even though we'll shake it, that's gonna be a good issue when Swall Hall, fours, wings are going to go poked in a prod, it's gonna be fine, and she'll hold her in. So wait a second, not so fast, my friends, I'm gonna give you a raise to 21 points, nine rebounds, one block, and a very spicy tweet after the game where VX reposted the Sports Center tweet of Victor Webman on the end one, that really was, I had to head ahead, but in old school WWE head, but at shareholder, shareholder on the world, in the world, it wasn't, it wasn't, but it was, I had, but this was very, very exciting. I have a lot of thoughts, what's going on to you?

It wasn't head belt, was illegal guardian position now. I mean, this is gonna be a fun matchup, I think for years to come. The first time that I ever saw it, Victor Webman on the play was in the PB-19 World Championships back in the previous 2021, honey in the Champions, season, at Gonzaga, it was USA versus France in the final of that competition. And even though the USA was victorious, maybe it was kind of the story of the game with his nomination on the US side, to head off to junior, play the key role in helping them avoid that upset from the franchise.

So it was a really fun game all around. And look, these guys who are definitely going to be compared in terms of their size and their ability, their skill at that size. I think, you saw him, it was like one level, and then when we started watching, when we went on a regular basis, it was like, oh, there's different levels to this. Where, like, a literal levels of height, different sizes of person.

Chet is a good ball handler and shooter for his size, maybe it was just ridiculously off the charts and that regard, but it was a pretty good, back and forth competition, and they were necessarily guarding each other all the time with Chet playing center and treating the pro-clombe city, I think it was really a lot of things for them. And when we played primarily the 4% in 2020, I think it was really good. There was a point where that call was not there when he was out there. No, Victor was exclusively the four.

Next to Collins or Charles Bassie, who is significantly shorter than Victor when we got a play at Funchalea as the center on both ends of the floor was guarded by the opposing centers and guarded the opposing centers. Chet and Holrin, like you said, in summary, we saw him play a lot with big jailer Williams and a double center look. I've been saying all along, I think the thunder is just gonna go full bore, jump into the defensive ball, and he's gonna start at center, alongside their four best perimeter players. And you saw what that does for their offense last night.

I mean, defensively, he's gonna have to hold up on the glass and all that, but his handle looks clear. Then when we on the stand, this spin move, people are gonna start to sit on. Like that's gonna be week two of the regular season. People are gonna sit on the right to the left spin, but it looked clean, it looked comfortable.

He hit a corner three off the Josh, get he posted up, which is like, that's the stuff that's really exciting to be about all the different places you can put him and all of the ways the thunder can invert the floor. I've been hoping and waiting that get he, my most intriguing player, second most is you can play it for the season. So he develops a little bit of a post game because he should be able to facilitate from down there, team's hide smaller guards on him, and you can abuse them and open up passes like that. He's a zip one to the corner, got it, they handle look great.

I just like, I like the thunder, get a little spice, a little provado, a little trash talky, like Shay likes to put people on their asses with dribble, who's makes some ankles, win jail and Williams, he's got to do him. He wants to dunk on people, he likes to attack people off the dribble, get he's kinda kinda a little nasty to him and shed his going right back at when we got him on the court, and on social media. Like the minute that tweet was sent, an alarm bell and a siren went off his thunder and he goes, no, we don't do that, we can actually have a nap of that, this is very serious, this is the balls must be arranged in a straight line with a small thing around, we've been able to Wilson, facing forward, do not tweet, and chat home, and it's like, you know what, I'm gonna tweet my spice into the world, I love everything about it. Yeah, I mean, I think to go back to chat about it, like this is the way the steam played all the last season with essentially four guards out there, his ability to guard up gives them the ability to do that.

And his ability to work as a roller in pick and roll, because this is the King's of the guard guard, guard wing screen and shooting trees will enable that. And it just, team just don't know what's coming against the thunder, who's gonna scream, he's like, I say a joke, I say a joke, I say a joke, I say a joke, I say a joke, he's gonna flare out, he's gonna roll, it's a fun, they're gonna make high on my league pass, making spoiler alert. That's a terrible fan trash talk for Isaiah Joe, you just yelling, Isaiah so, you know, it's not exactly like they were rolling out there with the King of the Center's alongside those four guards last year. It's time to win the season of playing Poco in that role as the center and gentlemen, compared to him, it's certainly a better way to protect or rebounder.

Or Poco. I've already started to forget about Poco, it's already happening, it's like the girl that you dated 20 years ago, and I'm gonna call it dates, the girl named as Denise, Lindsey, I don't know what that'll happen, that's Poco was just starting to become a blurry outline of a human to me. Yeah, I didn't see him last night, it was when Jenkins, some of those early minutes off that I thought was interesting, you had a camera to Williams, who was playing more than a second half after. Once we went, I was on to Lakers now, by that point.

But yeah, I mean, my pictures were not particularly high in Oklahoma City, that was one of the things that surprised me a little bit because they have so much talent, I think partially a function of, you know, as I wrote in the piece last week, when you make a big jump as they did, because the fact that it's based on a multi-year sample of player data, you know, the previous years are still weighing them down a little bit, but someone shocked me if the under-order, the breakout team, that everyone thinks they could do. I don't wanna do what we're doing over-unders other day later, and I have to say, I had like, I was very, maybe I'm becoming a happier person in my old age, I was very exuberant about several overs, just over-over-over-over-over-over-over-over-over-over, like three or four, and the under's, I had a hard time, I had a harder time, like I really wanted someone in the pack of like warriors, Lakers, Clippers are all 48 and a half, 47 and a half, 46 and a half, 52 and a half, that's a lot of wins. You can talk yourselves into the under's role, this seems to be what I'm looking, I think they also are, I think it's gonna be awesome, and I know they're gonna be quite a good injury-prone, their depth is a little untrue, but I think this sort of sheer amount of interesting wild guard depth is going to amount to a little bit more, than it looks like on paper, but like warriors, kinda like the warriors, Lakers, I understand they may be a better playoff team, they're regular teams, they're gonna have that luxury, they're just gonna be a better playoff team, they're regular teams, they're just too many good teams, I might go under 47 and a half of the Lakers, Clippers, 46 and a half sounds like a lot, considering they have one, 42 and 44 in the last two seasons, under 46 and a half, in the previous two seasons, which are both certain seasons, they absolutely blew away from the only percentage necessary to get to 46 or 47 wins, and one of the two seasons we went to miss it, two seasons ago, climatecy and higher seasons, so that seems like it should be an easy under, because we're all just tired of the Clippers being injured all the time, they have some questions on their roster, we'll get there, I just couldn't pull the trigger on it, and then I came to the Thunder, and it makes me sad, because I'm super excited about the Thunder, nothing I say in the next two minutes, is going to indicate anything other than my full-throated excitement and exuberance for what this team can be in the next three or four years, 44 and a half wins, so I got to get to 45 and 37, that's a lot of wins, and I know that one 40 last year, I get it and they're gonna be better this year, and I simply, you know, use improves and all that, they're still really, really young, and really, really young, and 45 wins in the West, makes me really nervous. This is not to say that I think they're going to go 37 and 45, 42 and 40, 43 and 39, 41 and 41, I can't get the 45 wins for the Thunder, and either a protection system, which has them at 39.

Yeah, I did not put them on my list of top three unders, but certainly given consideration for all the reasons you just mentioned, and look, I think they've signaled this offseason, that their goal, you know, they're thinking about it a couple of years in the future, it's not this year, they have an opportunity to potentially use captivists to try and improve this team right now, and instead they use to facilitate trades, dollars per times in particular, and not the veteran, three is consistent. Revenge game, would have been game in the preseason? I feel like, yeah, suppose you guys, especially if you're not gonna play that much in the regular season, although Pilska's Revenge, he'd be a portion of the game. He's watching.

What you're saying is that, the high would have gotten a short time season has already passed together. I can say, I mean, Pilska, you know there's going to be some random Wednesday night he's going to make five, three soft events, going to game for them. Like this game may be swinging a game from like, up 30 and the fourth quarter to up 37, and the fourth quarter, I feel like you could play aLEG and aLEG for them at some point this season. Well, I am really, that we have now snapped the offseason streak of like three or four year old where we all have to say here and say some people have to say, you know, like I'll read the next record this year for team X.

That streak is now officially over. I thought he was going to help Boston a lot more. The last thing is now that that was a disappointment to me, but what we all go home to is building towards a couple years down the run. I think the one reason we do where that makes sense is let's just see how chat fits in with this next.

And what that means we need the season and I've talked about y'all getting his development a lot less on this podcast when you was my most intriguing. You're number two. So how he develops another year along the side on the side of the next summer is when they really start to push some of the chips in and think about what he now before we run over on this. We have to go back to the other and Jen, we are done with women.

I'm going to tell you the thing that made me happiest about women on this preseason video, the comfort and aggression with which you went into the post against mostly jail Williams because he's going to play power forward instead of center in the first one and play 30. He's going to have to figure out a way to be impactful on both ends of the floor without being in the center of the pick and roll action as often as he would be if you were the literal center, which is that Collins and Charles Desi. And one of the ways you can do that offense is post the hell out of these smaller guys and just say I'm too big for you. And he did that several times once on the baseline left baseline back to the basket.

He overpowered jail Williams, put him almost under the basket to the point at home. And he had to come over from the baseline and make that second rotation. And then he drew a foul going on for the forefoot flip shot. When the Spurs are more polished and have better spacing, he's going to see the reads out of that.

You know, that rotation he'll see it over and over and he'll know the reads last night. So he was on the jump. He had another one in semi transition. When he was the first guy down the floor with Joe Williams on his back.

I was like, I'm just going to keep running. And you're going to be behind me. I'm going to put you in the basket and he drew a foul. And by the way, I love that they've emphasized hate and fill your seven, four, seven, five, whatever you are.

Run like hell. And we're just throwing you the ball. I think they should pick up Kevin Love if they'll keep everyone away from him. Just to get the best outlet pass around the modern history, they'll get to throw the ball up to women.

And then, you know, again, you don't want him to just be a sand still spacer. While these pick and roll is happening around him, they use them as the ball. They're picking roll a few times. And it takes some time.

He's clearly a little impassor. Postups off and so rebounds. He just reached over. Jeff home run on a free throw.

And it was like, cool. I'm going to take you. I'm going to take this. I'm just going to take it away from you before you get it.

I'm going to take brother you and put the ball back in the hoop. And if you're guarding with small ball wings, which a lot of teams are going to have to, depending on matchups and his outcomes as a center, he's just going to get offensive rebounds by height. And I thought the post-up aggression was my favorite thing in the game for him. Yeah, I think that running in transition is going to really create a lot of favorable opportunities for him because it's just so much easier to establish a deep post position.

It's the glass of NBA cliche. If you work early, like then it is in the context of 10 guys all in that small, you know, it's a larger amount of space now because of the way that people should. But it's still relatively small in that space compared to transition. So I think that's going to be a great source of offense.

I think, you know, one of the things that most of the time to me is, you know, you mentioned his handle and traffic is still oval shaky. But if, if you're going to lay off him a little bit when he has the ball, there's one player I think was just been jang was defending him and just kind of gave him a step and when he rises over him for a pull up three. And that was an end of what I was going to tell you, when he made it something like that. You in summer 22 is that for all the talk about big mentioning three is now and stretch fives, big and almost never make three is off the dribble.

You know, really the entirety of NBA three is made by centers or catch and shoot. Homecoming wimbie what sets them apart is both these guys can shoot three is off the dribble. And that's, you know, extremely unusual with their size. But one thing I wonder about, you know, we've never defended the floor.

My traditional long as it might be will be defensive way ahead of where he is offensively just in terms of efficiency. So he does feel like this was one continuation from summer league. And he's still trying to figure out exactly the timing of when he can help. And you know, if he's defending on the perimeter, he's defending with Dordat, see like a lot last night, you know, in addition to genuine wins, when can he help and when he's out to stay at home?

Yeah, and he jumped for a couple shots that he wasn't going to get in terms of chasing blocks and leaving the boards naked behind him. But, you know, the three, I remember the three that you mentioned it because it's again, one of the ways, like if he's not going to be the center of the pick and roll attack, how else can he score? He just make sure that he has a plus impact guy all the time. You know how talented he is.

One is I'm six inches, eight inches, whatever it is, all in the new. I'm just going to shoot and you know, you can be right here in front of me. You don't bother me. I'm just going to shoot and if that becomes a workable shot for him, it looks like it's going to be.

I don't like, then you get the closeouts, the pump fake, the dribble drive, all starts to open up defensively. And again, this is like, if he's going to be off to the side, how is that size and speed getting impacted game? I felt it almost every possession watching the game. There was one possession in the second quarter, I think where he was guarding, we were on the right corner in the left corner and Josh, he drove from the left slot and beat his man off the dribble.

And when we got him again, not at the center of defense, not in a re-protection position, slid off, we're on the chain in the corner. Cut off Josh, he's driving, Josh, but he's like, okay, this is what they do. Kicks it out. We want kicks it back to who's on deck, who should have a driving lane because pick up on the guy on the left.

When he stays in the paint, meets him, he's on the chain, who's on deck, he's about to run, he passes it out to jail and Williams, who drives. And it's on deck, clear the paint. He's coming out to the top of the yard. When we just pursues him, sees jail and Williams driving, next to him, reach it out again, and takes the ball.

And it's like, cool, I just disrupted an entire possession and I took the ball. And I think you feel him all over the place. There were two Oklahoma City Fast Rakes that ended in disaster because Victor Wami Amah was back there. One shot, one shot, one shot, one shot, and one was like, I want you to go on, I'm going to pass it off, turn over.

And you can see even jump shooters, when he's coming at them, he's jumping so high. It's like the super duper forward moving version of the luke hornet, super little eclipse that actually people say it's not stupid. But with him, it's actually in eclipse. And you can see these jump shooters like, now he's got one.

And that's going to be, we're going to see how often that happens. When you can see these jump shooters, it's going to be releasing like, oh boy, it's a fan friend who asked me about him all the time. Like, he's working the hype. Like, he doesn't talk about him a lot.

And my response is, if he avoids serious injury, the foot stuff that likes stuff, whatever, that seems to play the super tall at times, I just don't see any way that he's not super sorry at some point. It's not, it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not. It's, it's actually like when Mr. Burns built the, the shield to blot out the sign entirely and force everyone in Springfield to rely on his power.

Is that, is that who shot Mr. Burns part one? I believe that is. So, I look, I'm not old and I don't watch every television show.

I will, I will die on the hill. I will die on some hills. Like, Joyce Randall Hill, I die on that hill and I believe that by another day. I will die on the hill with the Simpsons from like 1991 to 1995 is the best thing that's ever been on television.

And I'm not here in the Bay that Kevin Bell, I'm here to now guide you. It's the best thing that's ever happened on television. The couple who've been going Twitter, someone tweeted one of the songs from that era of the Simpsons, I think it was the Quickie Mart Zone. And that inspired a whole thread of tweets like, oh, the Simpsons was like, Broadway quality around that era.

Here's the stone card or song. Here's, I remember what else, it was just, I mean, I don't forget mono, which is now been performed by Conan O'Brien at the Freaking Hollywood Bowl. Best thing to start by on television. This episode is brought to you by FedEx.

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You can start overs or unders. Make your favorite to be a trigger to go rapid fire through these. If you want to be an astronaut, which is my Halloween costume for this year, start with your favorite hunters. If you want to be an astronaut, this big bird, big bird seems pretty optimistic about life.

Pick your favorite overs. Alright, let's start overs. Certainly contact this time. I'm a big bird.

My single favorite line this year, I still don't understand it. Charlotte over 31 and half wins. I mean, they still have four of the top five players in with like 43 wins team two years ago. And this just seems like short memory.

We talked about about about the last time I was on his injury plague season and how people seem to have kind of forgotten how good he can be. They also miss Kony Morton last year, he played just seven games after orders of opportunity during November. He's going to be back after his no contest to a felony domestic violence charge. And Charlotte perhaps unsurprisingly for a small market team that does not have your robust fanbase.

If you go over the past decade on average, they have beaten their lines by the fourth most. So I think that's that's a factor as well. You did actual research? I did.

I don't know. I did actual research last year with three and two. I think the spurs over and they missed my half game. So because I remember one pick that I made last year as soon as this podcast is over, all of this will be forgotten like I like to say, poke a chest key is graduating from my brain.

I also looked at the dinner over. So I did take that one back came in. I think I hammered the Toronto over. We both over the favor the Toronto over.

That was the sound of every rapper's name. It's a 48 minute is the algebra around aimlessly doing nothing in the end. It's sat in his catcher's crouch for the longest birthday game. It's world record for longest held catcher's crouch by a non catcher.

I don't know how he does it. I can't hold the catcher's crouch for 30 seconds. Yeah, but you're practicing. I suppose they got me to do yoga.

I'm like, so now I do yoga. I want to do yoga. Do you do yoga? I do yoga.

I don't want to do it. Hot yoga no way. Some people do the hot yoga. I sound like, all right, let's move on.

Charlotte Charlotte's on my list of favor overs too. 31 and a half. They want 27 games left here with like nothing. No, no, no injuries across the board.

They have legit like the bait and they're starting. They have enough talent where they'll start the Melrose year and I love to take him. They're still good. It seems like he's just kind of wasting away on this contract.

Nobody thinks it's a good country. It's a good player. And Mark Williams, I think he's a very, very interesting and great fit with Mel Williams. He's a lot harder.

A lot of catcher. And then some combination of bridges, PJ Washington and Ray Miller at the three and the four. Interesting, which means two of those guys are coming off the bench. That doesn't even go to the board.

By the way, you look at this roster. Gordon Hayward suddenly feels like a 45 year old man playing on the scene. I forget that he's on the team. You look at the rest of the team and Gordon Hayward is just over there being like, man, I remember that jazz glitters play out serious for like 2015.

That was a great time moving the ball. Great secondary playmaker like catch and go. We're in the sequence. It was like making faces and I don't know what he's doing on the scene, but he's so good when he plays.

This is just like a no brainer. I can't believe the one. Yeah. I think it's similar about to I mean, I feel this way about Toronto last year, but you know, Indiana, I think it's probably the closest company to sack and those are teams that ended up in there over before.

You know, it's almost as early as any team. And it's over to the there with Charlotte, but I like that. Lonello was also a nine most intriguing players. The more I watched film of him, the more I intrigued I became by he just had so and I mean this in a positive way.

He has so much ground to cover in terms of a slower half court pick and roll game. He just doesn't have that at all. It's all just like turn the corner immediate kick out. It's just great.

You want to go to get to the ball early sometimes. The paradox of him is that he sometimes shoots when I when she wouldn't shoot like he don't have to take every step back for you with 15 seconds. And then he sometimes passes when she would do the Chris Paul Steve Nash, just a couple more dribbles see what opens up because somebody's kick out to come in that he doesn't even rotate it all yet because he's 22 feet from the rim and he's just whipping the ball around. It's like he just doesn't feel comfortable for a player who's so good and so tall and such a good shooter and has such a fun vision.

He just doesn't seem comfortable doing you know the slow down in the paint thing that is the hallmark of every sort of half court possession that gets in the mud. And it's even though it was like pretty open for you about that. Like we are goal last year was to really develop a pick and roll game for him. That's what he said develop a pick and roll game for him.

Not like not like enhance the pick and roll game with develop one and then he was injured and he turned his ankle and all of this but okay give me another favor to let you have a little melodus. I'm super I'm super intrigued because you just don't get six seven with that handle and that vision and that shooting ability. That is very very rare. So what's your point is I had my hot take a few years ago which you put the ball in charge of the American basketball development system.

And you know the development of the and the mellow into you know above average and be a point guard to the very worst. And I thought you know the argument for it is what they did is just generated incredible number of reps for these two players in space with the speed with which they played. But the downside is you didn't get a lot of reps in the kind of slow down style that you're talking about. Which you need to win.

You can't just win in chaos. By the way as a total side to why I'm in trouble. I live in suburban Connecticut. The most common Jersey I see every child age 10 and under like the ultra young is a low level of orange Jersey.

There's zero percent chance any of these kids who see in a trial and orange basketball game. Zero percent. It's there everywhere. It's more than stuff.

It's like this is my sample size of one. Like another capable of a level of all is why. But I don't even know who Mr. Beast was until the Charlotte Jersey came out.

You know my nephews are very much I do know Mr. Beast through them. They didn't seem all that excited about partnership with Charlotte. I like when an analytical person such as yourself takes a data point from their personal life.

It just makes a grand assumption based on it. It's like I just did with a level of a problem. For all I know this is an isolated enclave of level of all super-standard. That is somehow pop.

That individual is from nearby here. It's not even close. It's level of all the lines. Okay another favorite over one for one imagine.

Memphis is over 45 and half. They are not on my list because I don't know really why. Just because the less that there's so many teams with the exact same over under more less, they came out number one in the West in your projection system. On NBA today last week the producers like this line told me.

They asked like how can the Grizzlies say toward the top of the West without John Ray for 25 games. And I said look you can quibble with the half-court offense and the way they depend on forcing turnovers and transition, offensive rebounding. Some of those ingredients are hard to come by without John Moran. They're essentially starting from the sample size of zero playing without both John Ray and Ty's Jones.

He was the kind of ultimate security blanket. Brandon Clark is still hurt. They have this mystery box of guys and you mentioned off in junior like Roddy, LaRavia, Ziya Williams. Ziya Williams, Ziya Williams, Ziya Williams, Ziya Williams, Ziya Williams, Ziya Williams.

They're going to need something out of what the line that they like was. Team is just a regular season of wins machine. Whatever they do, leads to wins in the regular season. And I like your pick and I don't see why it's in continuum.

Only 250 plus in the West each of the last few years. So if you look at last years record, last year they were not as dominant without John as they were two years ago when that was really important to their season in their rise. Last year there were a little bit of 500 games John didn't play 11 and 10. They were 40 and 21 with him.

If you carry over those same ratios, you would have to play about 20 games this season for them to hit the over here. So I don't think that they're necessarily going to be quite as good in either of those situations because even the Marcus Smart is going to be able to play on a point guard and do a lot of things in defense of what they're doing. Brooks did. And the brand of Clark element is out there.

We'll see as good as you have them is healthy at the start of camp here. But still they just got a lot of good players. And that's a formula for regular season success. Especially with the team that's younger and isn't starting managing minutes and things like that.

I think this is, you mentioned a lot of people on my business below all those other teams that came out much more some of my projections. So I think you have to be very skeptical of John's ability to stay on the court. Whether there's further suspensions coming or saying that to believe they're going to be the other element. I think there's been so much negativity about the Grizzlies this season because of that John's mentioned and coming out of the way they lost in the playoffs last year and doing Brooks in this trash dock that I think people have forgotten kind of just how far ahead they were at everyone the West besides Sacramento Denver last year.

You mentioned how many good players they have. They have a lot of good players. The perception is they're just overflowing and good players. I can't decide how much, that's like it depends.

It's like the dress that was the two different colors in the League of Color. It's like the one that's playing at least 25 games. Triple J, that's two. Smart, that's three.

Clark's hurt. Bain, that's four. People are going to start realizing what it's done doesn't mean. There's a little bit of like, he's got how much money?

He's worth the money. He doesn't mean it's really good. Marcus Martin's very good. That's five.

Steven Adams like very good went healthy. I kind of got to see him stay healthy. Canard seems to just fall out of every rotation on any teams. I think he might get a chance to start this season while the Muldja is absent.

Then I mentioned the mystery box of like Williams, Roddy, Kanchar. I think Al-Dama is more or less proven as a rotation guy, but is he a 35-ever thing there? Are we sure about that? Tillman is solid.

Lofton and Jack Harris, and Sierra, got some other flyers here. I don't think they're quite as deep as consensus, but they have enough bodies to it. They just need something. Canard just has to shoot and play and not be a guy that frustrates his coach 15 games at the season.

Yeah, so it's going to be 10 games left and needing to fill in for John's already line at that point. I have seven players from their team projected as average or better than two of those in the third quarter in the ramp. So, but there's only one team that has more than that. What team?

Let me see that. Okay, well, it's a mystery. Okay, give me your last favorite over and over and over. If I go through mine if they do not overlap.

Okay, deep side before we go here. I don't know where this is going. How are we excited? I'm picking the throttle around.

Okay, I mean, look, you've made this case before because they had, well, they're 36 and a half, which I agree is low. They lost me. They got you under 30, 30, 30 year old, they're blah, blah, blah. They were 15 and 10, I think they were Pertil.

Do they have bad shooting like they were going to bad shooting? They had a great point differential. They had a great point differential of 45 when team last year. If you think of them starting at 45 instead of the 41, they actually won.

36 and a half is a huge step down. The point is shot 37% from three. This was all in. They were one of my teams most likely to improve based on kind of these underlying factors when I wrote about that a few weeks ago.

And then the other factor that John Hunter, the athletic friend pointed out a few weeks ago is this team owes a protected picture San Antonio. There's not really going to be much incentive for them to take unless they're way out of it. They're going to be fighting hard to get into the play. And I think that's a big factor when you're looking at a line like this.

They don't have to win. They don't have to be a 500 team. They just have to win 37 games. I probably take the old register.

I'm going to be a home. Maybe my third note for Los Angeles. All right. You're mine.

You ready? Mine might be a little crazier than yours. Minnesota 44 and a half. Over.

I like the wolves. I just think the wolves are going to be good. It sounds dumb. They lost a series 41.

They showed me something that series against Denver when they didn't have McGanyles because he punched a wall. And they barely had their team for the entire season. We're going to have a thousand Pat Ben's podcast. So we accomplished this really great for Denver and probably since year.

And the ultimate only potential comedy podcast moment of the offseason. If I'm characterizing that right at the game. I just like our team. I'm a little nervous because I love their top seven.

Conley and McGanyles. Cat go bare starting. I know the cat go bare thing didn't work. They were about even with those two guys on the floor in the offensive big pile group.

A little more optimistic in your two. I did see the people who were up, which makes me a little nervous from the French side of the equation. And then slow mo and not just read off the bench. The great top seven, we say a little nervous that Nas Reed is duplicative with Cat and go bare that three centers essentially are in their top seven.

I know how first ones are on the week and three. I know we can work off the dribble. Nas and Cat was bad. Nas and Rudy was bad.

We're going to have to see those lines. And then after that it's sort of like who is going to help us among Shave Milton, Pnequil logo and Walker. Jordan McDaniel, Jordan McLaughlin, the work he's from this year, went no more for last year. It's kind of a lot of question marks.

I just like they're starting five. I like their core. It makes me a little nervous because one of my other picks is kind of a maker break pick. This is a maker break year for this iteration of the simple.

If this team doesn't do well, I just don't see any way that they do not make a massive change in the all season of money. The money by itself, once they pay a genetic gain, and we all know them most likely messages they call down. This is somewhere else just based on math and reality and contracts that as an agent and all that. And I can play this.

It's a big proof at your for Carl Townes for teams around the league. I have stuff to trade who just watch you on his go off the board, potentially go off the board. I shouldn't say go off the board potentially go off the board with the game acquisition. You just watch through how they eventually go off the board not that every matters.

But you know, go on Paul George. This is more for cast me reasons. I'm talking pretty fondly about you signing LA. There's a lot of teams with eyes on Carl Townes.

Like prove it to me this year. And I kind of think after another horrible start to the playhouse, I like the way he's finished. The Denver series from a competitive standpoint. I think this team can be pretty good for 44 and a half.

I'm going to I already feel a little bit of on it coming up my throat. But that and I think the in breakout thing is a little overstated. Like I got to see the playmaking advance a little bit more. But I just think that I was going to be a son.

Yeah, I do think we're in a little danger of the team. Most playing Denver competitive way in the first round becoming the new most competitive sweep in NBA history of the Lakers. Now it's conference finals last year. The United Kingdom mentioned, but it was on their preseason over there.

I would say well, OK, so forget the whatever local broadcast propaganda. That was in the TV. So that was national broadcast. OK, but the projections are great.

They're second in the last time my projections behind Memphis. And I just like they look like the more cohesive and organized the two teams in Memphis. Dallas and I want to be too much in one preseason game. But that's encouraging given how many question marks you know, the word about how this were fit together last year.

So I'm high on the table. Not high enough to make them on my top three over on pick the over on the other hand here on the show. Another make a break team. I feel like this is make a break for this iteration of the team has to work makes me a little nervous because it starts a break for start the break after the season.

You never know when it's just going to explode in really pieces. Is that true Toronto on my back still? Yeah, it is. I'm going.

This is no surprise to regular listeners of the podcast. You know the way to the major line with Tim Bonham's over on the Hawks at 42 and a half. I bet Tim Bonham's 100 bucks that the Hawks will finish in the top six in the East with a guarantee playoffs. And then I said, nay, that is not a courageous enough bet.

Top five in Tim Bonham's just sat there and I'd go to it against myself for $100 and accepted my bet. And that's it. So if I think they're going to be a top five team at the East or have a chance to be top five team at the East, I think they can win more than 42 and a half. I think you're going to have 43 games.

That's 43 and 39. This is more than anything else. It's not about the trade. I'm going to start moving off the ball like Steph, 32.0.

I'll believe it when I see it. Lex, the lawyer at half court one is John Tim, the only has the ball. Boxes, van, these and popcorn. I still feel like all these years at the end of the league, I'm not sure that either the Andre Hunter or CDB are good NBA players.

Obviously, they're good players. I'm like plus NBA, we don't know. We're going to find out. But I do feel like the subtraction of John Collins, who I love and think we'll thrive and use on is just going to kind of declutter, clarify, give me both the off the bench going crazy, the Capella Congo to head center and Quinn Snyder.

I just bet on Quinn Snyder teams out before he has expectations of the regular season. Atlanta over. I was surprised when I did with an lackluster podcast to see what I had picked. How high I was on Atlanta last year.

The rejection was 47 and a half last year this year. 43.6. So down the mountain. It's going over.

So we're going to let me down, Hawks. They're probably going to let me down. And then it's about as one. I'm going King's over 44 and a half.

And I know the health, the health level that duplicates all the addresses, I dressed as all the map on Team Sage. One of my kids and outs is going to that podcast. I'm probably going to take a slight under on that one, but it's not a determined, you know, coloring. Like, I think they're on like one 48.

You just, you know, I believe it. When you go to the Golden one, what is it called? The Golden one center center center. They're not going to let you like the beam.

If I go there, they're going to let me like the beam. Because I was over last year, I'm over again this year. I think people are too low on the steam. I really like to go Orlando at 36 and a half.

I did not stretch it enough. Welcome aboard the aerial. Please sit and enjoy. Please sit and stretch.

Steve, flip or that and enjoy the aerial. Love the way. This episode is brought to you by Defender with its 626 power twin-turbo V8 engine. The Defender, Ota is taken on the Descartes rally.

The ultimate off road challenge. Learn more at landrover.ca. Favorite under I already gave you a call to say I feel strongly about exactly none of my remaining under some very curious about what you take here. Let's start with Milwaukee under 54 and 1.

The type lies line of anyone. They were nothing. In terms of those kind of indicators from last season where they had the point of differential with a 50-win team, 158 because of the best record in games to side by 5 points of view of anyone in the NBA. And I think that is throwing expectations a little bit.

And then look, what you said about the 100-1 term, I'm going to say about the Milwaukee box in the playoffs. This is not contrary how good Milwaukee is going to be as a championship contender after the day in the other trade. I think they're right there with Boston and Denver in the top tier even in the Celtics or on my pick at this point. As much as that trade could help them, we'll see how they gave you the latest over the course of the season.

He traded two rotations for players for one. They did add campaign. Campaign is that pre-solid player in terms of Justice Plus minus. last few seasons.

He's a individual box source that's not been echoed. So he doesn't actually help their production all that much. So for all those factors, I think they'll be very good. I think they'll be very good.

I think they'll be right there in the Eastern Harvard Finals. They'll be going to win 55 or more games in the right game. The Celtics are also at 54 and a half. It's just a lot of wins.

Sometimes you could be a slight pessimist on regular season win totals. Just because it's a lot of wins, 67% of your games. And to put the Celtics in perspective, I thought on the one hand, I think their depth issues are being somewhat overstated. I think pretty good.

I think same-house will be fine. Cornettes, OK. I think their depth issues are not after their top six or not that much different than any other contender top heavy team. And maybe less sort of allegedly serious than the walk you see.

They look at it like, again, 67% of winning percentage. Boston hit that in 2019 barely missing in the bubble season. 500 to next year, missed at the following year, hit it last year. So that's like two out of five.

It's just hard. Like your one injury away from not getting, not winning enough of those games. So I don't mind it. I just think the box is going to be awesome.

So I just don't know what to do with these awesome. Like you mentioned Boston Celtics. Not just me and you may disagree. I'm starting to think of my annual tiers.

T-I-E-R-S not the tiers that I cry. When someone is limited on the Great British Bank, I've been watching them go home. I just started watching that. That is real tough.

So that's your own television. I have no words about how much I love the Great British Bank off. Well, League of Ryan and I, well, League of Andrews Ryan and Morrison, I have a chain devoted to just commentary on the Great British Bank off though. Someone who show a man who's always falls too far behind the British Bank on the commentary.

They can't say stuff that happens. Anyway, I think there are four teams that start at the top top tier. Like I think there's more teams than usual that could win the title. Denver, Boston, and Milwaukee, and I'm putting Phoenix there.

I'm bullish on Phoenix, which is why I think they'll be popular under 52 and a half. I get the bill and the rent and even Booker in one season have missed games. And they're top heavy and they just made a gamble on dirt and all that. I just, I've since since day one, they put this team together, stop worrying about their offense.

Stop worrying about the range of numbers. Stop worrying about the only one problem. Their offense is going to be ridiculous. They're going to be fine.

They're going to win a ton of games. I think they enter those four teams to me after that. It's the biggest mystery of the NBA is what teams in the next group punch their way up into not one of those teams above us has to take an injury or whatever. But punch their way up to no, we're just as good or a decent chance to be those teams to play out serious.

Healthy versus healthy. That's the biggest question to me. We all can have opinions with the Lakers, where is it? But I have those four teams away from everybody else.

And therefore, despite concern that you've had and others have had about shooting last year health is when I just couldn't get a result of taking on anyone. Yeah. I mean, one of the things we've got in last year's pod was historically teams with lines over 50 wins have gone under more often than they have gone over. That wasn't really true last year, right?

It was not even. So you know, perhaps to a degree that's been an adjustment. You know, these lines are still nice, high is pre-pandemic. You'd see the highest line would be more often in the 56 and a half, 57 and a half range.

So I think that they have adjusted to that to a degree. And the other interesting question that I think is going to be a wild part this year is how does the player participation policy change things or is going to play in more games? It is that going to lead to better records for the top teams as a result. You know, seems heavily impacted by that because effectively got, you know, three guys.

I don't know how other teams do. I guess Austin does as well, but they're in the ground rarely rest. Phoenix I will say in there, I'm not necessarily worried about their offense. I'm not necessarily even out at the one ball thing.

It's more their defense that I'm worried about but I do think that, you know, I'm pretty worried about them. After they made the Bradley field trade, they've got a really nice job of filling out. Now I dig, you know, you can grasp the other teams in that group. We have a part of the Denver, but they're relying on all young players with recent graphics.

To fill in the minutes that last year we're Jeff Green and Chris Brown, Jr. He might actually have the deepest of the teams that you have in that top tier, right? They might, I mean, like I said, I think they're collective like, this guy's with the shots, this guy's with the shots, this guy's with the shots, this guy's with the shots, this guy's with the shots, this guy's with the shots, and a lot of guys were worth a shot, half of them will hit half of them all, but that's like a good quantity of hits if that ends up in case. I always wanted to say you're talking about mentioning Boston as an exciting way, but you went nothing on them, right?

Yeah, not any direction. The line is clearly there. What did you think of John was you opening the preseason, bringing you how they're off the bench and starting light, paid them around, where Ford's been causing us? Yeah, I think it's interesting.

I mean, look, I generally start starting your best players, like, that the starting line up is a little overrated, and if Drew is happy in that role, and it makes all of her happy to start, then I think it's reasonable to begin the games that way. Personally, I would probably lean towards bringing out the bench just because you know to the point of the guys in games, he's the one player who is probably going to be scheduled to sit out and game of every back to back, they play, I don't think he played a single back to back last season, maybe one. So I would rather not be shifting my starting line up every time he's sitting out one of those games, that's my logic, but it was a lot of different ways to approach it. I hinted at this possibility right after the trade.

I kind of didn't think they would do it. I mean, it is surprising for sure. I even said, I think that's what I wouldn't close the door on the bring you to how think they'll do it, given how much money he makes and what they just rate it for him and just the status he has. I was on my second team all in the day.

How good he is. Yeah. I don't think this was a one off. I don't think this was a let's see how this looks.

Now, he may well end up starting. I tell you, injuries, nice off, matchups, just being so goddamn good that they decide what we just have to start. We don't have a choice to rebounding concerns whatever, whether it's outlets, who ever. I think that there's, I think there just has some legs potentially.

And the reason I think it has legs is I think they tried it out in that first game, they didn't play great, but you can feel the spacing, the impact of real quick trigger center in poor singers. I think they liked Tatum out holiday in not only holiday in Tatum out holiday plus Brown on the floor because like the curry on the bench, it's a golden state, though, for a much shorter span of time, the Tatum on the bench, when it's holy hell, what is our offense of identity, how are we going to score enough points? And I probably know for a lot of years. And I think they like the looking field of let's have to also our level perimeter ball handlers, either them, like playing our by any means, one of them with sometimes the yips with the dribble that's jail and brown, but both also our all in the level players.

I think Boston's collective passing is going to be very interesting. But that's just inside. Let's see if they can prop up the offense along with poor singers and some good spacing. I think this might have some legs.

I don't know, again, like they're not closed games with you. That's like that's a given. I think this has some likes. Well, they did invent the concept of having one of your best players, because they have John Hamilton Jack back in the day for pretty many things to pop into that with money, totally.

But I'm glad that Bill Simmons is joined the podcast called in called in from the let's call us to remind everybody about the 60s, something's innovative. They were the counter argument to what I said about bringing over not to bench is what the minutes you want to be biggest are probably the sort of games because I know the team's tend to be big as and also if you think that's when you're seven or eight best players, it's a lot easier to play him if we're from Porsing us or starting rather than trying to bring both coordinate and work for not to match. A lot of smaller lineups. A lot of random reserved lineups are smaller faster makes more sense to go smaller to match them size and speed.

Okay, give me another under. All right, my next under Dallas under 44 and a half. And this one, the other factor of projection is a little bit lower than that's not nearly as likely as long as I'm about to say I have a real statistical justification for I'm just worried about the Dallas Mavericks. I don't know.

Is that how you feel as well? I don't say a lot of my time worrying about the Dallas Mavericks. Let's fair. Uh, I have to describe them as a fit over talent team, which sounds weird because they're top two is still talented, but the drop off from two to three is just enormous.

Even if all the pieces look like sort of archetypal fits for guys you want to have around Luca and Kyrie, that's cool. Like sometimes just need guys you can do like super high level stuff with the ball in the NBA. Um, you know, obviously Kyrie's been in another line up for the last three years. That's concern.

The overall quality of the list is a concern. I get it. And these two, like they were dynamite off into the floor together. I do think they're going to go through a growth process of learning how to play off each other.

The other players are going to have to learn how to play off them and like, aren't these great games okay? Just standing around like a lot of these guys okay? Just standing around. But it's just that feels where I have been in man and I am not too low for me if I'm baking in 70 games.

I just think that he's too. And I realized that last year they went under it. I don't know if this could be like a huge bounce back here, but it just scares me to bet against one of the 10 best players in the league. That's fair.

I think the question is like obviously they made moves to improve defensively. I think Greg Williams is a terrific defender. You know these Jason Kid Sean Sweeney defenses have tended to historically the first year in the lucky was terrific and then really struggled defensively after that. The first year in Dallas was terrific.

Really struggled last season. Can they turn that around this season? I think if they do, then they'll hit the over here because the offensive is going to be good for all the reasons you are too good. The other concern I have is starting directly.

The second thing makes a lot of sense in terms of his bit with that starting lineup and just his potential. Uh, I'm actually in the start of last week season, given that he started to play in like 45 minutes here to record this thing for elementary. But trying to play him a lot of minutes, I don't think he's ready for that yet. I think that's just like we need someone in that long range of wing.

It's not the 20th reason around and I don't know if the goal match was ready for the level. Yeah, I don't know that those guys are like in pen as starters. Maybe I've missed and Josh started their last game. So, uh, look, you know who's coming for the Dallas matter starting center spot yesterday today in 2029.

Dwight Powell is coming for the starting center spot. Whatever high flying rookie you want. Like Powell still doesn't shoot jump shots like you know there was a brief light power going to make a three point shooter thing along to at least he's just not going to give up that starting spot. So I can have it absolutely more shooting.

Um, so wait. So yours were Milwaukee Dallas and who else? I'm done. Golden State under 48 and a half.

I mean, I think that the Chris Paul move was, you know, a wise one. Like the option Elliott gives them his contract. I think a lot of sense. Do I think the Warriors are going to four more games than five more games?

I think they went 44 last season. Five more games. They did last year at their age. That seems oddly optimistic to me.

One thing I have to look at this year is the projections tend to be higher on teams that are younger and lower on teams that are older. And over the last five years, teams with a projected age join in the season five minutes projection of 30 or older waiting by those minutes have on under 15 out of 25 times. So I do think there's a degree that, you know, people see those big names, the familiar veteran players. And they think, oh, this game is going to be good between the radio or season in a way that hasn't necessarily added up because of aging and health.

I think even more simple than that. The best argument for the under any of these teams in this range, Lakers warriors, Clippers are a take lower. I'm probably forgetting somebody is just how competitive the West is going to be. Like there are just other than Portland who I don't know.

I think they're line to 20 and have I think I would take it under on that. I know it's not that many teams that win that few games, but I feel like we're going to see some first all two of their best players play the same position. And I don't think they can fall together. They're young.

And I think they'll trade broad in some point. So one of their quality guys will be gone. So there's one I understood. There's our easy wins on the table in the West.

And that's going to squeeze when it's going to be told us down at the top at the bottom. I get what you're saying. And dream about for, I mean, I could just be a couple games a few games whenever it is. It's not an ideal way to start the season.

I mean, it doesn't have the happy benefit of maybe solving the Chris Paul starting issue because if you just, you know, he starts to learn when it's out and then either it works and you stick with it and dream on volunteers come off the bench when he comes back or, you know, it doesn't work and you have a reason to slide into the bench. And it's not been a focal point of when it's over line all through training camp like we exactly would be. Well, look, I mean, they're awfully small. This line up is very, very small.

We can get the forward at the time of play. If any force and players have ended up pretty well, besides wise, just very small to be bounding. It's going to be very interesting. I'll hold up.

I thought Chris would good in their first preseason game. I watched all his minutes. He looks healthy and he blended right into how they play. And he brings a lot of what they need in terms of care for the ball, not throwing it really nearly all over the goddamn court.

But with, and I think that's how the envision him running the team with stuff on the bench with stuff. And if you're going to start, he's going to play a lot with stuff. I'm starting to play a lot with stuff. He fit right in like, hit it passes in transition, running the wings and then screening for shooters to come off calling for players.

He's free for stuff on and off the ball. Sometimes he fit in pretty well. You throw in a full season with GP to. I've never got a bunch on thinking.

I'm never going to go up. I still have all the jumping against. I have taken a huge L on the, I wouldn't have lost sleep over drafting going over front of my economy about two years ago. You're going to have to go up huge L all over the base.

So about the stock. Moody's better. I think it's going to be better. It's not the staff, man.

It's a lot of wins. I agree. I agree. I mean, again, you could just be saying 46 and 36, right?

I mean, like 46 and 36, you may have to play your way into the playoffs through the old, the old, 7 to 10, GM. I mean, 46, 360, the last six guys we think it might be on court advantage. Might be that too. That's it.

I'm going to give you a couple of mine. I already gave you a golden seal of Portland, which are exciting. I just, I really struggle. Like here's something I thought about Indiana 38 and a half.

I like their team and they won 35 last year with Hallibur and he said now a lot. They've got respround on the top and they fit. I couldn't do it. Bull's at 37 and a half.

The overall amount of time is all the sweet watching goals games is 5.5 per game. I just, I just, I just, idea of watching this team play basketball again is just, I can't do it. Why are you making this video excited to watch the Bulls? No, no, that's what I said.

I know. Rockets 31 and a half. It's not not that any wins. Pistons 28, team with no incentive to tank.

Crucially, Pistons 28 and a half. I looked at it. So hmm. I think I'll, I'm players.

They're playing all these centers. I know everyone's kind of excited for Detroit last season. I took the under then that everyone's kind of get over their season a little bit. I think the skis might be in storage.

I don't have a good feeling about the businesses here. The team and the West that I looked at and rarely would you see me look at an under for a team whose line is fewer wins than they won the year before and they had no, had no major personalities and let you count a bit season trade, which we can count. Utah at 35 and a half coming off the 37 win season. And again, it's not about the long term picture of the Jazz.

Larry Markinon, oh, check. Loggy, Walker Kessler, just drafted three dudes in the first round all of them are interesting. And all of them I think are going to get chances to play the season and maybe play a lot in Gantjourjour case. Um, not that they have to have the buffet of picks from teams who are decent bets to bet against long term.