Panel 1: Winners and Losers in a New Regional Order

The war in Gaza triggered by Hamas’ attacks on Israel in October 2023 sparked several massive aftershocks that have redrawn the geopolitical map of the Middle East. After decimating Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces went on to effectively neuter Hezbollah in Lebanon, depriving Iran of its most potent forward threat to Israel. The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria last December further weakened the so-called Axis of Resistance. With Iran at its most vulnerable in decades, Israel took the fight to the Islamic Republic in a 12-day offensive in June that left its chief regional foe reeling. The aftermath of the violence has significantly altered the balance of power in the Middle East. Israel has emerged as the primary security power in the region, Iran has seen its influence evaporate, and other countries are calibrating their responses to the new reality. How do Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf, which have only recently moved to détente with Iran, respond to Israel’s rise in tandem? The Middle East Institute’s Annual Conference 2025 unpacked the effects of a re-ordered region on the rest of the world via three panels staffed with experts. These panels examined the impact of the far-reaching changes brought about by almost two years of war.   Panel 1: Winners and Losers in a New Regional Order This opening panel discussion focused on regional reactions, and included perspectives from Israel and Iran.   Get Ready to Dive Deeper than the Discussion. Drawing on his discussion at MEI’s Annual Conference, Alam Saleh explores how the 12-Day War has forced Iran to recalibrate its foreign policy amid global shifts, regional realignments, and domestic crises - to read, click here.   Read an in-depth analysis by Neri Zilber—building on his insights from MEI’s Annual Conference—as he examines how the 7 October Hamas attack reshaped Israel’s domestic politics, drove a shift in its military doctrine, and altered the regional balance - click here.   Syria’s new rulers have scored some successes in moving the country out of international isolation. But, Nanar Hawach argues, they risk these gains because of a series of mis-steps domestically. Expanding on his remarks at MEI’s Annual Conference, he charts a course forward. Read his remarks here.