Part I of a (more) definitive conversation about China

Austin, Vipin and I welcomed Taylor Fravel and Caitlin Talmadge to the Strategic Simplicity Podcast to talk about China. While I was hoping we would could make this THE definitive China episode, we realized as the conversation began just how much more we have to unpack and explore on this topic. Stay tuned for a Part II (and maybe a Part III!) in the coming weeks.Our podcast covered some of the higher order motivations in China for a large nuclear arsenal, how those motivations may have changed over time as the recent buildup began in earnest, whether Chinese explanations of seeking a secure second strike capability credibly explain certain capability developments, and we also talk about China’s nuclear posture changes in the context of broader trends in the U.S.-China relationship, political changes in Beijing, economic growth, its foreign policy objectives, and increases in its relative military power in the U.S.-China competition. Throughout the conversation we reference China’s recent military parade, including the development of theater nuclear weapons, intermediate-range dual-capable missiles, and silo-based ICBMs. We also touch on the ebbs and flows in U.S.-China relations over the past several years, and how China viewed and perhaps reacted to changing (and more transparency in) policies in the United States and Taiwan in developing its nuclear and other military capabilities. If you’re interested in doing your own deep dive….some suggested reading below. Taylor and Caitlin are prolific writers in addition to being amazing scholars and professors, and I can’t recommend their publications strongly enough for listeners who are interested in learning more (and there are of course many more than i’ve chosen to post below). I’ve also thrown a few recent works by Austin, Vipin and I which many of you may have already read.* “China's Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure.” Journal of International Security. Evan Medeiros and Taylor Fravel (open access link).* “The Meaning of China’s Nuclear Modernization.” Journal of Strategic Studies. Caitlin Talmadge and Josh Rovner.* “Counterforce in Contemporary U.S. Nuclear Strategy.” Center for GLobal Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Edited by Brad Roberts. Austin’s article “Damage Limitation in the 21st Century” is located on page 66.* “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.“ Foreign Affairs. Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi. Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.Recording and edits through Riverside.fm. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com