Paul Kedrosky: AI is the First Bubble With Every Ingredient at Once | #648

Today’s guest is Paul Kedrosky, a fellow at the MIT Institute for the Digital Economy, partner at SK Ventures and former sell-side analyst. In today’s episode, Paul Kedrosky explains why AI sits at the intersection of every force behind the biggest bubbles. He walks through why tokens are the fastest-deflating commodity ever, why more than half the data center buildout runs on debt instead of cash flow, and why an IPO wave pressures the market’s biggest winners. To close, Paul argues AI already drives most US GDP growth, and revisits how badly humans misjudge scale. (0:00) Introduction (1:19) AI solving its own problems and historical economic crises (3:14) The impact of AI on energy and emissions (7:25) AI’s economic implications (10:45) Financing and economic impact of data centers (18:42) Deflationary effects of AI tokens and tech company debt (22:26) Tech companies as utilities and the IPO surge (28:01) High PE ratios and valuation risks (34:04) AI model convergence and diminishing returns (40:22) Global attitudes toward AI and technology adoption ----- Sponsor: ⁠⁠Upwork⁠⁠ is the world's largest human and AI-powered freelance marketplace to hire top talent—trusted by businesses and professionals worldwide. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected] ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).