Paul Kennedy's Prophecy

Subscribe now for early access, ad-free listening, and bonus content! HAIH Premium subscribers got this episode (with no ads!) on Monday, May 4. The United States' failure to defeat Iran in an unprovoked, undeclared war is fueling the notion that the U.S. is in decline. Its security commitments cover the globe. The annual defense budget is approaching $1 trillion. But the Pentagon can neither defend its Persian Gulf bases from low-cost drone attacks nor reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Forty years ago, a Yale historian named Paul Kennedy argued in a best-selling book that the U.S., like all great powers, could not avoid relative decline, especially if it failed to square means and ends. In those days, the national debt was $3 trillion. Today, it's soaring toward $40 trillion. Our guest is one of Paul Kennedy's old students, historian Jeremi Suri. Jeremi Suri teaches history at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. He writes the Democracy of Hope newsletter and co-hosts This is Democracy podcast. Further reading: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy