Pelton and Lopez

And now, the Low Post. Welcome to the Low Post Podcast on a Tuesday afternoon from sunny Los Angeles, California, where about two weeks away from media days and training camps, the NBA season is starting back up. We're gonna start to preview it properly. We'll have Andrew Lopez on to talk pelicans and spurs and Zion and WEMBY, but first ESPN insider, Guru Kevin Pelton, how are you, sir?

I'm doing well, thanks for having me. We're almost there. It doesn't feel like that long ago that the Denver Nuggets won the NBA title, but we are almost to a new season. And I am at work on one of my annual pre-season columns where I pick my five most intriguing players coming into the season.

My general rules are no superstars. With sumics, I allow a little bit of leeway, a little bit of leeway. There were two superstars on my long list of candidates for the five spots. No first or second year players were all intrigued by those types of players.

And then I was like, you know what? Who would be good for this? Who I think would dive deep into maybe rosters that most people wouldn't dive deep into? Kevin Pelton, so I asked you to pick your three, just three most intriguing players.

I gave you total flexibility to do it. I'm interested to hear the results, and I will let you cook. Maybe you're gonna be disappointed that I didn't end up taking Kada Bates D off despite giving him strong consideration there. But he's not that, he's only intriguing because he might be the fifth starter on a good team, right?

Like we kind of know what- That's intriguing though. Yeah, he's situationally intriguing. I don't expect a completely reinvention of his game. So give me, I don't know if you ranked them, but give me the one you want to talk about first.

The one who was at the top of my list and who I most suspected would be on your list is Josh Giddy. He is one of my final five for the column. I am hoping to interview him shortly. I've watched a lot of film on Josh Giddy.

A lot of Josh Giddy picking rolls and drives and some defense. I am interested to hear why you picked Josh Giddy and your takeaways. Yeah, I mean, I think this could potentially apply to Lou Dort as well. There's some sort of winnowing is going to happen in Oklahoma City with all the talent that they're going to be able to add going forward, via the draft picks they still have coming, whether it's parlaying those into trading for an established player or continuing to draft players.

The fact that they don't have cap space next summer, all of these things, they're gonna have a lot of options. And some of the guys were part of the core, the core four that they had last year that Chen Hongrin joins this season are probably not going to end up long-term starters for them. I think Giddy is probably the most interesting of that group because I think there's a chance he's really terrific, but also a chance again that maybe long-term he ends up. There's six man.

Why this, so six man is an interesting way to put it. Six man or out of Oklahoma City. I had this conversation with Andrew Schlecht before sometime in July before I left for vacation. And we talked about the talent crunch and payroll crunch that's coming for the Thunder no matter what.

They're just not going to be able to pay all these guys what they're going to be worth. It's happening. Every young team is going to face this in the new CBA. You're just not going to be able to functionally do it.

Plus they just have literally too many draft picks which is why almost every draft they're trading two for one, three for one to move up and draft your Usman James and they just moved up again this year to get case on Wallace and they poke with chef's giddy's the most famous example of them trading a bunch of picks. They did a reverse in trading out of drafting Al-Peren Shenguin. And I asked Andrew as like, you know, when I envision what the Oklahoma City consolidation trade looks like, why does my brain keep coming back to Giddy as the one of this young core that would have to go? Not would have to go, but that might go.

Because I like Josh Giddy, I think it's super interesting. And I think the simplest way to put it is it's always, it's always a little dicey to project. How does a guy who needs the ball, but has a shaky jump shot fit into a great team as a number two, number three option? How does that work?

How does that look? And Andrew's response was, I think it's too early. I think the Thunder view Giddy as a cornerstone player because they want to play with pace. They want to rebound and run.

They want decision makers all over the floor. And he is skilled enough, big enough. And the size is critical. He's huge for a ball handler and smart enough to make up for his shaky jump shot by screening, cutting decision making.

And he does have all of these little wrinkles to his game where despite the fact that everyone's going to go under screens against him, despite the fact that everyone's going to ignore him off the ball, he has these little tricks just to just to pry open extra little feet of space that he can then eat up off the dribble and make shots. He's a good fake handoff guy. He just keeps defenses off balance. But I still keep coming back to him.

So elaborate a bit on the sixth man vision that you mentioned. Yeah, and I think this runs along the lines of why you kind of focused on him. You look at last season per cleaning the glass, they're offensive rating when they had SGA and Giddy on the court together, 115.1 solid. Very good.

When it was just Giddy, 108.4, not great. When it was just SGA, 121.4. So some of this is some overlap with Lou Dort and the fact that you have two shaky shooters, one of them more frequent than the other in the starting five alongside Jay. But what he does say is Shae plus shooting is almost unstoppable offensively.

And I expect Shae to make another step this year. I think he's got more to his game. I know he's first game all NBA, so that I think fifth and MVP voting. So that sounds outlandish.

I just have been so impressed with Jay. Yeah, I don't know how much to read into those numbers because the roster is so young and wasn't all that deep last year. But Giddy is really good. I mean, he's really good.

He's really smart. He's smart about rejecting picks and keeping his defender leaning the wrong way and then opening up that little alleyway. Just little extra bits of space. If you go under, he can kind of beat you to the spot behind the screen.

And if he gets to within 12 feet, he's just kind of going to bruise and bully his way and shoot floaters over smaller defenders. To me, when I dove into the film on him, the biggest, not the biggest challenge, but I think a challenge but thunder going to face when he's handling the ball is when teams switch pick and rolls against him and Chad Holmgren or him and big jailing Williams and just say, we don't think you can beat our big guy defender one on one, Josh Giddy, because he's just going to lay off you and you're going to have to either shoot jumpers or drive right into him. And we don't think Chad Holmgren or big jailing Williams are going to bully our small guys because they're not really post-up types. And obviously with Shaye, you switch a big guy onto him.

He's going to cook you and it's going to be barbecue chicken. And then if Shaye has the ball, you just have the sort of endless dilemma like what is Josh Giddy doing? If he's just standing around the perimeter, that's not very useful. Last year, their solution was often have him set screens for SGA and space their big man out as shooters and let him or even door be the roller.

And the bet on Josh Giddy is that, yeah, Shaye's going to be our number one option. There's no question about that. That means when you're both in the game, we're going to have to find a way to have a non-shooter. And I'm not going to brand him as like a permanent non-shooter.

But for now, for simplicity's sake, let's classify him as that. We're going to have a non-shooter surrounding Shaye and we're betting that guy is good enough, skilled enough, smart enough, cagey enough to make it work on offense. He's a good offensive rebounder and good enough on the glass and is a defender on the other end to make it worthwhile. I think it's one of the most interesting bets in the NBA.

Yeah, and let me, I started with the negative case here, but there's plenty of positive case for why, you know, this could be a breakthrough season for Giddy, where he does establish himself is, you know, the number two, number three, I and that OKC pecking order. I mean, first off, let's start with, he won't turn 21 until next month. He's a month older than Brandon Miller, who was just drafted number two. He's five months younger than Chad, who is going to be a rookie this season was drafted a year after.

I thought the floater mentioned is interesting. He's one of the things that stood out to me in terms of his improvement from year one to year two. It's 38% of his shot attempts in year two were in the restricted area up from 27% is a rookie. So that's big and a big factor in his two point percentage improving.

Yeah, he gets to the rim a lot. He's not a great finisher. He's just OK, but he gets there. Part of the reason not a great finisher is a lot of the times he's getting there by just kind of bowling through his guy so he doesn't have like a clear runway to the rim.

It's cluttered, he's stumbling, the other guy's stumbling. It's not like a clean release, but he gets to the rim a lot. And then the other piece of it is, you know, I think this is to Andrew's point, like it's too early to say he's for sure a non-shooter, you know, especially working with champ England after he joined the Thunder last year, his three point percentage overall up from 26% to 32.5%. But if you dig down to catching shoots, according to Second Spectrum, he was only 24% is a rookie, 34% last season.

So, you know, that's still significantly below average, but that's trending towards competent. Like you're good enough to make teams pay if they're going to leave you, Lido. Yeah, he's not afraid to shoot threes. And there were a couple of big games late in the season, remember the Thunder needed to win like most of their games down the stretch to get into the play and where teams dared, there was one against the Warriors, I remember vividly, where he shot a lot of threes and like made enough to keep them out.

So I totally agree with you, like competency is easily achievable. Down the line, if he becomes a guy that is included in theoretical trades, let's say, the same issues applied to teams that are trying to figure out, is he a guy we really want to covet and build our team around? Because we're going to see it with Scotty Barnes, you know, those big point guards who need the ball, but have shaky jump shots or non-shooters. It's just, it's, you got to decide, can we go as far as we want to go with that guy as the number one option?

Because if we shift our offense and build around somebody else, it's going to be hard to finagle that. And like, he's just not as forceful as, I mean, who would you copy him to? Who's a Josh Goody comp? Yeah, you know, when you mentioned that about Scotty Barnes as well as on a different team, I started thinking on it.

I don't have anyone off the top of my head. It's, I thought about it a lot. It's hard to find a comp for him because when you think of like Ben Simmons or even like a young, Janis, like they're just so much more, they're bigger and more forceful and stronger, more explosive than he is. He's got some stuff that they didn't have, but like it's hard to find a great comp for him.

Yeah. I mean, the other thing to your point about, you know, projecting him into that lead role, we did sort of see that with Australia during the World Cup, where, you know, he averaged 19.4 points in 27.6 minutes per game, 33% usage rate. So I didn't see any of that in how it was actually coming. But, you know, that I think was encouraging in its own, right?

Yeah, I think he's just super talented. And I think he's just going to find ways to like outplay expectations in the next couple of years and make this a really, really interesting, not dilemma, but just score sort of situation for the Thunder because I think he's going to be really, really good. But I am intrigued by how he looks this season and for a team that has Chad Holmgren back and has legitimate aspirations to make the postseason and is just loaded with talent up and down the roster. Any other Josh Giddy thoughts?

That's all I have. Give me another guy, give me guy number two. See if we go, I doubt we're going to go three for three and overlap for my final five choices, but I'm interested to see how close we get. Yeah, I think we're going to diverge from here.

We'll see. But number two on my list, Giddy, I think, is interesting. I guess the summation is because it does matter for this season in terms of, you know, can Oklahoma City take another step forward after getting into the plan last year, but it also matters long-term. This one, you know, is intensely short-term focused and that's Kristoff Sportzingis on the Celtics.

I think it's the single most fascinating team fit in the NBA, like, you know, completely reoriented or yet your roster by trading, you know, a six to six three guard for a seven foot three big man that suddenly a lot of your, you know, playing time a lot of your, it's not necessarily money because the fact that I'll hoard for it isn't making that much on this extension, but, you know, still a decent amount of money is tied up in three guys who have often played center. And, you know, I think the theoretical case for it is kind of fascinating because I think one thing we saw with the Nuggets last year is a kind of an underrated element of their championship formula was basketball success at its simplest is like, how much size can you put out there without sacrificing shooting? And so if you were to graph those two things, you know, the amount of size on the court and the amount of shooting, the Nuggets starting five, you know, ranked extremely high in both categories. Boston ranked really low in terms of size with many of their best lineups, which, you know, was often Jason Tatum at the four and Al Horford at the five.

Joe Missoula liked only playing one of those two big men with Williams and Horford together last season. So going, flipping smart for Porzingis, you've upgraded both your shooting and added more size. I think that's got to be kind of their logic for it, but it's all still a fascinating fit to see how it actually works. Yeah, skilled size has always been the end game of roster building.

It's not small ball, it's skill ball. And I'm assuming the Celtics 35 will be white, brown, Tatum, Horford, Porzingis. I, which leaves Robert Williams is coming off the bench and maybe they don't go that way, maybe they go another way, but I just think if you're going to extend Porzingis for all the money they extended him for after acquiring him, you're not doing that for him to come off the bench and have a shooting come off the bench. And then Horford is sort of just the unselfish connector, defense first, whenever type.

That lineup is enormous. I mean, absolutely enormous. You know, every time I talk to somebody about the Celtics and the smart Porzingis trade, not every time, but most times I say some version of like, I just, it just leaves me a little bit nervous. There's this sort of reinvention and relying on a guy who doesn't have much experience in big games.

I'm not, I don't know how much stock to put in his gigantic year in Washington for a team that was playing with no stakes and not a ton of talent around him and he could do whatever he wanted, but defensively he was very good. Offensively, I think his decision making, which really began in Dallas, like he would run an occasional like give and go kind of play with Luca where he'd be like, whoa, the passing is coming along and just when the wizards were giving the ball at the nail, it wasn't always let me just jab step, jab step, jab step, and launch along too. Sometimes he would grab and go real fast and drive to the rim and make the right pass off of that. But I always, it's a little queasy.

It makes me a little queasy because they got to have a totally new, not totally new, but revamp defensive scheme. You know, you're not going to be able to switch as much. You're going to have to play double big lineups more. A lot of these guys are older and or injury prone between Horford, Porzingis, Robert Williams, who's always injured with something and Brogdon, who they tried to trade and Gary Watchburn reported earlier this week.

I think that he's still angry that they tried to trade him or almost traded him or included him in trade talks, whatever phrasing you want to use. And then their depth beyond that is interesting in the absence of Grant Williams, who was a huge part of their, well, he actually wasn't huge part of their team. He was a little like banished him inexplicably for a huge part of the season. You know, they're going to rely on guys like Peyton Fritchard and Sam Houser and O'Shaper said, like those guys are going to have to play.

And then the executive or coach I'm talking to you usually says like, yeah, I agree with you. You know, I get why you're feeling that way. And then both of us do the butt. And the butt is, these guys are really, really smart and the moves they make tend to work out.

And so what does it look like to you if this works out? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because you mentioned kind of the defensive element of changing the way they play in terms of not switching as much. And you know, look at the second spectrum data on switches. None of the Celtics regulars switched is infrequently as Porzingis did in Washington last season.

You know, not even Luke Cornette when he was on the court. So well, they can't switch Luke Cornette because they have to have him do the Luke Cornette jumping jack from the country away from the rim. You know, who adopted the Cornette contest or the Eclipse or whatever you want to call it as Porzingis in DC at the best of now departed Dean Oliver as part of their coaching staff. So, but offensively, it's a different style too because, you know, one of the things that's changed for Porzingis over the last few years here, and particularly last year as part of this career here in Washington, is you go back to 2019-20 and there was the whole hullabaloo, you know, on inside the NBA, over why isn't Christoph's Porzingis posting an op, he's seven foot three.

And at that point, it made sense because as Ricardo explained, like Porzingis post stuff were not that effective in Dallas. He was much more valuable to them, spacing the floor from Luke and Tatchich. But all of a sudden, last year, he was fourth according to Second Spectrum in points per direct post up, you know, when he either shot or passed to someone who shot or, you know, one of them turned it over. All of a sudden, that's a huge weapon.

And that's something that Boston did not do at all. According to Second Spectrum, no Celtics player had even a hundred post-ups last season. He had 263. Yeah, the Celtics, you know, their offense, if there was something that let them down, it was always their late game offense.

I mean, defensively, they slipped a little bit this past season, and particularly in the playoffs, had a number of games where you just wondered where that identity was defensively. But offensively, it was always a late game slog or often a late game slog. And just generally, they have not been a high free throw team. They've been of just a very perimeter oriented team.

And you can still get to the rim with great spacing like that. That's kind of the point of great spacing is to open up those alleyways to the rim. But they never really did. And you just, I get why they said we need to try something else.

And part of that is getting bigger and adding this post-up option. I just, I'm not, we'll see if you can replicate those kind of numbers, because he was. I mean, look, if you can shoot over guys, he's gonna make a lot of shots. And as I said before, his aggression and decision making, I thought we're a little better.

I think the East is, I don't, you only answer this question if you want to answer this question. If you had to pick a team today to win the East, who would you pick? It would be the Celtics. So the Celtics.

Yeah. I mean, the answer is, as it was when we discussed this question about the West most of last season, like the field is the answer. But if you're picking an ATM, it's the Celtics. I legitimately don't know who I would pick.

Maybe I would pick the Celtics by default because I'm worried about just how this year is gonna feel for the box now. The Sixers are like, I mean, it's astonishing how few people would say Miami. I bet if you pulled a hundred NBA media members, is that if Miami gets dame, and let's say the price is kind of what it's been reported to perhaps be in the end, does that change your answer? I don't think it changes my answer.

It definitely increases Miami's spot in that pecking order. I mean, I just, you know, I don't think they're as good as last season without gave Vincent Max de Rose. So I keep saying this, the East feels, and maybe in two months, this will just be nonsense. Like James Harden will be back and playing well, and the Celtics will look awesome.

Milwaukee will be totally fine. And like, who cares what Gianna said two months ago, they'll be 23 and four. It just feels a little more unstable at the top than it did last year when we had these three teams penciled in, and it didn't end that way. So it feels like if we woke up in the conference finals in like New York or Cleveland or Team X was one of the two teams in it, I'm not sure we're gonna pick that, but like right now I wouldn't be surprised.

But again, in two months, that could all look stupid. I guess I just kind of kind of, I'm just very, I like the Forzingis big. I didn't have him on my long list, but I think that's a good pick. And any parting East thoughts, Celtics, go ahead.

Well, one more thing on Forzingis is, and this case became a lot tougher to pick when you had to miss the World Cup due to play for Shydis and we'll see whether he has in fact cleared for the start of training camp as the Celtics said was expected back then. I think people kind of missed that he was, by and modern NBA standards, reasonably durable last year. 65 games were the most since his second season, and of the 17 he missed, nine of them were due to illness, including the last six games of the season with the Wizard season long over. So it wasn't that he was, again, knocked on wood, missing a lot of time with a variety of physical ailments.

Yeah, I got a case of the Wizards, I guess, late in the season, a case of the Wiz that may be contagious. Give me your third guy. My third guy is a little bit different. I don't know that it's actually going to matter that much for this season, but this is more of a long term, and I think it was kind of fascinating.

The response when Matt Moore left him out of his top 100 players, but I feel like people have forgotten how good La Melo Bal is because of the fact that we're at least could be, because of the fact that last year was such a lost season for him individually due to injuries and the Hornets collectively due to those injuries and Miles Bridges' absence. So perhaps to the disillusionment of the editors, La Melo Bal is probably not going to be one of my final five picks, but he's on my long and medium list. I think this is a great pick. I'm just going to let you have the floor.

Tell me why you're picking it. All right, well, to the same line is we went with Yeti. La Melo just turned 22. He's younger than five players who were drafted in the first round this year, and it just feels like he's been around forever.

There are 12 players in NBA history who have been in All-Star before age 21, and you can describe all of them with one name, Moses, Magic, Isaiah, Shaq, KG, Kobe, Lebron, Kyrie, AD, Luca, Zion, and La Melo is the 12th. So, you know, health permitting with some of the current guys, the whole of fame has been a lot if you have made the All-Star game by age 21. And he was third youngest, or fourth youngest of that group. It's Kobe, Moses, and Lebron, the three high schoolers are the only ones who made it younger than he did.

And I think, you know, to my point to start this, there's kind of the sense that, oh, he got there by a compile of a bunch of empty stats in his second season. And I think people have forgotten, like the Hornets weren't bad in 2021-22. Their offense ranked in the 78 percentile according to Queen of the Glass when he was on the court. They were plus 2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Like, this was a very competitive team. And the one fascinating thing that I hadn't realized until I looked this up, 98% of his minutes in that season were played with Miles Briches. They were solid that season until the play internet, which became an annual thing for Charlotte under James Braco. They were good, and then the play internet would come and they would lose by a million points.

Maybe I'll put him in the column because last season, he missed mostly season with ankle issues. The team was bad. We didn't really get to see how he and Steve Clifford, who would not seem to be a stylistic match made in heaven. But Steve Clifford in particular, I think is more adaptable than people give him credit for.

That team was solid. And you look at this team this year. I mean, if I had to take a stab at their starting five, Lamello, Rogier, Bridges, probably Hayward, at the three in the four. I mean, then I have PJ Washington, who they just resigned on a great deal for the Hornets.

I mean, it's restricted for agency, just stinks for players. It's just absolutely stinks. That would leave him coming off the bench. Center, I don't know, pick your young center.

Mark Williams, who was electrifying last year in his limited minutes. Nick Richards, who may be a more stable, safer answer. Like, that's not a, that's not, we know Kai Jones thing should be the starting set. So I missed the whole Kai Jones social media eruption.

What exactly, can you film me on what exactly happened? Like people were like, he might have been a little incoherent at times or something. I mean, I only saw this second hand in the aggregation by my friend, Dan Felman, for the dunked on newsletter. But, you know, he said, basically talked about how much more skilled he is than Mark Williams and Nick Richards.

Oh, he name checked them? Oh, he did. Oh, yeah. That's not gonna go over well in the locker room, I would mention it, I guess.

Or in the coaches office, probably. I will say, when Kai Jones gets on the floor, and we haven't even mentioned Brandon Miller, maybe Brandon Miller starts right away, and Bridges starts at the three, and Brandon Miller at the four, flip him around defensively, whatever you think is best. Whenever Kai Jones gets on the floor, I remember I was at a Clippers' Hornets game last year, and I whispered to someone on the Clippers, that dude with the blue hair gets in the game, because people who aren't really following them when they just don't know who he is, you can't take your eyes off, like it is just one. The level of freneticism is almost, like you never know what Kai Jones is gonna do for better or worse, or just it's athletically, he's off the charts.

But, you know, JT Thor is an interesting player. Cody Martin is still around. I thought he kind of disappointed last year. You stagger Lamello in Rose Ear, so one is always on the floor.

This is like a not, this is a decent team. I don't know what they're over under, I suspect it's low 30s. I might take the over on them, after really hammering the under theoretically last year. I just think, I've said this before, I didn't like the way Lamello played in his brief action last year.

I thought he morphed into a little bit too much of a chucker. His game was a little too loose. I keep rattling off this stat about, I think he was one of only two guys in the league, or maybe the only guy in the league who had, I might get it wrong off the top, but it's like more than 20 field goal attempts per 36 minutes, and less than three free throw attempts per 36 minutes, which to me is indicative of a guy who's just throwing up jump shots. His rim finishing has only been so, but there are not very many humans who are this tall, and have this level of vision and creativity.

One of the five to 10 most creative, brilliant pastors in the NBA, and can shoot threes off the dribble at a high level. To the point that I will out myself two seasons ago, before 21-22, we had a segment on NBA today, where four of us had to pick, you get to build your team around Lamello Ball, or John Moran, who do you pick? And I think it was 2-2, and I picked Lamello Ball. And my reasoning was, I love Jock, that this is two years ago.

I love Jock, I love what he stands for as a teammate, I love the way he plays, I can look really stupid for picking Lamello Ball, but I'm just gonna bet on size plus passing, plus shooting every time. And I think he kind of became a little bit of a carnival act last year when he played. I almost don't blame him, because there were no stakes to their season. Now there are stakes, there's talent around him, there's another tentpole young player around him.

I think this is a home run pick. Yeah, I mean, I think that's, that nailed it. Like his usage has gone up every season, was 30% last season. I don't think you want it there long term.

Like he's better as a distributor than he is a scorer in his own right, even though his ability to score helps facilitate the playmaking element of it. And look, Lamello has not been very good defensively, that was, I think the empty stats element of those James Perego teams is, you know, how much they gave up at the other end of the court, they didn't necessarily slow down a lot, a lot of season with Steve Clifford, but you know, if they can marry the offense of 2021-22 with even approaching league average defense, that you know, that's gonna be a really interesting team. And Lamello is gonna have to be a big part of that in terms of accepting the challenge and defense event. I think they're an interesting team.

We mentioned the centers, the two young centers, they used to play PJ Washington at center quite a bit. Steve Clifford went away from that last year, it doesn't kind of fit his MO. They also have these veterans like Rose Year and Hayward, you know, if the season goes the other way, do they look to move those guys, you know, for younger talent is an interesting question. They owe their pick to San Antonio via the Hawks, top 14 protected this year.

So probably this person, maybe you never know, that could be an interesting pick to take a look at. I just think if they can, I mean, he's still so young, I love it, I love the pick. And I agree with you, I think people just kind of forgot what he can do. Hey, sports fans, the ESPNF has all of ESPN all in one place.

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It's all the ESPN all in one place. Sign up or activate now. Can I go through some of my long, I'm not going to review my short list, but I'm going to name, I'll name like 10 guys, you pick one or two you want to talk about. Okay.

Devin Vicell. Interesting, he was not, I mean, I guess I had, I listed so again, but he doesn't fit your second-year role. I feel like he'll sell kind of is who he is, but ooh, I'm not in a negative way. Just like, I don't know that I have a lot of intrigue.

I think he's very good. Emmanuel quickly. Yeah. That's kind of one of the extension.

Extension season for him. I'm not going to spoil the column because he's going to make it. Like what happened in the playoffs? Just, just didn't translate.

I'll tell you the one star, the other star besides LaMello. And by star, I mean like proven all star has been in the all NBA conversation. Some of these other guys, like I have Kate Cunningham and Evan Mobley. I think both of those guys are going to be stars.

They're intriguing for obvious reasons. You know, Kate after missing most of the last season, Mobley, can they ever play him at the five? How does he respond to last season's playoff collapse when he and Jared Allen just couldn't get it together offensively? Can you make enough corn to threes?

Yadda yadda yadda. The one superstar-ish player I had was Trey Young. And I don't even know why. I just feel like full year of Quinn Snyder, year two of De Jante Murray.

A pretty deep roster, a disappointing falloff from the conference finals of two years ago. I feel like it's not a proof-it year for Trey Young because he's proven a lot. It's almost like a proof-it year for this construct of the Atlanta Hawks to me. Like I think they're, I'm higher on them than most.

I already have my bet with Tim Bontemps that they're gonna finish top five in the Easter. I owe him a hundred bucks. I think any thoughts on Trey Young and the Hawks? Do you think I'm gonna lose that bet?

And look, on paper, I should definitely lose that bet. We named Philly, Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, New York, Cleveland. Like I should definitely lose that bet. Yeah, I would want Tim's side of that bet, safe to say.

No, I thought about Young for kind of the same reasons. I thought you were gonna have Carl Anthony Townsend on your list for somewhat similar reasons. But, you know, we've never seen the Trey Young 21 playoff run from towns. Good, that's a good one.

He's not on my list, that's a good one. That's a good one. This might be a little too obvious. Jordan Poole?

Was on your own list? Okay. I can't believe neither of us got to this one. Maybe it's too obvious.

Tyree's Maxie. I kind of thought he might be on your list. And that was part of why I didn't take him. So, yeah, no, I think there's a, the kind of Maxie's a little more point guard, but we talked about this group the last time I was on in the context of the Dame trade.

Maxie, hero Jordan Poole, the way that hero Jordan Poole's value around the league seemed to decline rather precipitously after they signed extensions. Maxie and Quickly are the guys who are, you know, in that, oh great, these, you know, they're on the rookie deals, they're incredible values. They look a little different in a year if it doesn't look like that extension is worth coming from Maxie, but when the price tag changes. I'm just, in a world where harden, in a world where harden is either traded and they don't immediately receive another big time ball handler either directly or indirectly from that trade.

In a world where harden is just benched, let's say, in those worlds where it doesn't, they're, they're not reunited and everything's fine, which I think is also possible, who knows? I'm just super interested to see how Maxie looks as the undisputed number two guy, because the way he played when harden was off the floor versus on the floor, I don't know how many perimeter players had such diametrically opposed roles and styles based on other personnel on your team who were on the floor. I would love to see him with more of a ball handling load. I think he could do it and thrive in it.

His shooting has proven to me at this point off the dribble and off the catch. And I just, like, he does not fear big games at all. Now, he's wilted a little bit against the Celtics in their size here or there, but he seemed to kind of get by that, even at parts of that series. I think he'd be really interesting.

And boy, if the harden thing goes sideways, they're going to need a massive Thairys Maxie season to stay where they are or even near where they are in the pecking world. Yeah, you go back to Ben Simmons City out two years ago. The reason that the Sixers could afford to be as patient as they were in making that deal and way they all harden was because of the, largely because the fact that Maxie was stepping up into a much larger role in his second season. So we'll see if there's another lead play like that.

I mean, I think, you know, the playmaking element, if he were their lead playmaker in that no harden scenario is really what would be fascinating to see for me. Rapid Fire, RJ Barrett, Colin Sexton, Franz Wagner. I'm not that intrigued by Franz Wagner because I think he's just gonna be a flyout star. Anthony Simon, Ruby Hachamuro, was it all a fluke?

Jump shooting fluke? On Yaku's Kong, John Thingkamingo. And I'm so intrigued that he's getting his own column, Jailing Green. Okay, he was one of the people I had thanked for you too.

I, he's getting his own standalone, standalone column about him and the Rockets. And I mentioned Trey Murphy the third, I think. That's the full, that's the full long list. Oh, I did forget one guy.

DeAndre Aiden, thoughts? Considered him, I'm so skeptical on the positive scenario that that that's part of why he's not that intrigued me, I suppose. He's situationally intriguing to me because very clearly things went sideways for DeAndre Aiden with not just Mona Williams, with lots of people within the Suns. As I've said before, the players on the floor did not hide their frustration with him.

He did not finish game seven against Dallas two seasons ago. He did not play in game six against the Nuggets last year with a rib injury. I think at least some corners of the organization were surprised that he didn't play that game. All that said, Frank, one of Frank Vogel's first job was salvaging the teams, rebuilding the team's trust and relationship with DeAndre and vice versa.

And I think the Suns have zero path to winning the title. If they don't achieve that or flip DeAndre Aiden into a legitimate starting center who can bring some different things to the table and hold their defense together. I just, this is not to over eight DeAndre Aiden. I just think they need stability in that position, some method of achieving a good defense.

And I'm sort of more intrigued by how they resolve this situation than by Aiden himself. I don't think he's gonna magically transform into like, he's gonna eat the rim and get to the line eight times a game and start shooting threes. I just think he needs to do what he doesn't do it well. And it's unclear to me if that's possible for the Phoenix Suns.

Yeah, and we already have the template. It's the 2021 playoff run. That's what they need from Aiden. If you can do that again.

They're different players in a different stages of their career. But the way that Vogel is coming in approaching Aiden reminds me a little of when Doc Rivers took over as the Clippers coach and started talking up DeAndre Jordan as defensive player of the year. And you know, really kind of- Wasn't Bill Russell's name mentioned at some point in that- It's a long time ago. Doc Rivers first year with the Clippers feels like a long time ago.

Shifting gears, Damien Lillard still has not been traded. We've done this ad nauseam, Miami, all the other teams. You got- You were part of a piece last week at ESPN. Theoretical Damien Lillard trades to the heat and elsewhere.

And there were four trades at the elsewhere were New Orleans, New Orleans, Toronto, and Philadelphia. I think, and Wojcie has reported that Portland has been doing more talking since the calendar turned to September after a largely dormant summer. I don't know how much if any of that talking has been with Miami. I don't think much at all, if any, which has naturally led to speculation about some of these other teams.

Andrew Lopez and I are going to talk about New Orleans, why I don't think that's a match. I've talked about Brooklyn. I think that would be a healthy debate in that organization. I don't think they've been active.

I saw Chris Mannix mentioned Oklahoma City as a possibility down the line. Anyway, it was Shea, I don't know. I mean, I don't know anything. I mean, Oklahoma City can do anything.

Spurs and jazz have been mentioned as sort of the rebuilding teams. I've reported- I've said before, I don't sense that either of them have been super involved. Nick's, everyone's gonna mention Nick's, I continue to just think I'm saving my chips for other stuff. And I like hovering over all of this is, Giannis's comments last week, reiterating, you know, if I don't sense that the Bucks are all in, I'm winning.

I'm not gonna end my career here necessarily. I think other teams have at least started to have some of these teams with assets. They've at least started to have the conversation of, wait a second, if we think we have any chance of being in the ballgame. If that actually comes to pass and there is no guarantee, Bucks fans that it comes to pass at all, it could end up beautifully from Milwaukee.

They could win the title, could stay, whatever. Do we need to keep our powder dry? Boston has been mentioned for them, I don't see that one. So my challenge to you was this, is there a Toronto Raptors deal for Damian Lillard that makes sense to you?

So my fundamental position is, we talked about the last time I was on this back in July, is that with the length and size of Damian Lillard's contract, it only makes sense to trade for him if you have a legitimate chance of winning the championship in the next two seasons. And my list for that has been, and the reason I picked Philly in that column, even though I certainly think it's an extreme long shot, is Miami, Boston, Philadelphia, or the three teams, you put Damian Lillard on those teams, you know, they have a legitimate chance to win and improve their chances of winning, I guess in the case of, you know, Boston in particular, you already, I just picked the favorite in the East. Toronto, I think if there is a path, number one, Siakum has to be the player who goes out in return, which presumably necessitates a third team. I don't think Siakum makes a ton of senses.

Why does he have to be the player that goes out? Because I don't think he fits particularly well with the aim in terms of, you're going to have, now, you know, Sky Barnes and him is guys who are better with the ball in their hands playing with the best pick and roll play card in the league. And then salary-wise, just like that 37 million suddenly fits rather nicely against the lawyers, 46 million, you know, Toronto could do it with Siakum and that is as young as the matching salary, and that would potentially make them a pretty deep team while also upgrading their start talent. And then obviously, so from Portland standpoint, it'd be whatever you get from the third team that, you know, you go back to the Siakum trade talks from the summer and then traffic from Toronto.

Toronto owes that pick to the Spurs top six protected. That's somewhat troublesome. They can only trade two firsts. If that's interesting, I assume that Siakum would have to stay as part of a win now team around game.

I also have already started wondering, you know, Siakum is not an expiring deal. There was little burblings of trade rumors over the summer, not little. They got loud. And now I wonder is like, we think we have any shot at Giannis at all, like 1%, 2%, like, is he going to want Siakum to be here if he ends up wanting to ever come here?

I assume the NNOB would be the one that Portland would want. I guess I was thinking more two team trade than three team trade. And then I can pile up, like, Mary, maybe Gary Trent comes into deal and maybe Portland can reroute him as part of a separate trade. And then one more matching salary and we're there.

Maybe I have to get Grady Dick if I'm Portland in that scenario. And then I just, I don't think Toronto would consider moving Scotty Barnes in a demi-liller trade. Maybe they will blow me away and prove me wrong. If you didn't want to move him from KD, I'm not sure you're going to move him from demi-liller.

That leaves me with, like, lillard, Barnes, Siakum, somebody in the starting five at Power Forward in Purdle and, like, not that deep of a bench. Truder would still be around, McDaniel's may be precious to Chua. I'm not sure that's good enough. I'm just not sure that's good.

Like, I don't, I focus on NNOB deals more than Siakum deals. I just am not sure the team I'm left with is quite good enough for me to do it, especially if it's going to cost me all the draft equity I have left and take me out, therefore, of other things that may or may not come up in the future. Yeah, I mean, that's what you want to listen on my list of three is. I think that if it's that Siakum version and then you've got a starting lineup of Dame Trent and, you know, the Barnes Purdle, I think that's pretty balanced.

They've still got decent depth. You could talk me into them having a chance in these, but I don't think it's good enough to, you know, Toronto has kind of been moving along without, you know, it has been much discussed. Picking in a specific direction. If you trade for, you know, Damian Lillard at his age, you're picking a direction, even though you, even if you maintain Stadi Barnes is your british in the future.

Is there a Boston deal anymore? Because Dame Brown, Tatum, Porgingas, is just so massively expensive over the next two or three years that I'm not even sure it's tenable. And I'm not, they can't trade Jalen Brown right now. They can't trade Porgingas right now, I don't think because of the extension rules.

I've never thought Jalen Brown made sense for the Blazers as the centerpiece. Not made sense. He makes sense. He's a great player.

I just made optimal sense for the Blazers as like return of choice. Boston's obviously got their picks, swaps. I just don't, it's a harder deal for, I don't see a deal there that I love if I'm the Blazers. Yeah, I think mostly if you're just like weak.

We will not trade Jalen Brown similar to Miami. And, you know, again, to go back to where we were in July. And I think to reinforce it, the Miami trade is better, I think, than it has been characterized as. And part of the reason is, you know, everyone says, well, Miami always finds a way when they trade away these future picks, they end up being, you know, in the middle or late first round at best.

But if you've got as much money as they would have committed to Damian Miller and Jimmy Butler at their ages, you know, I think that those picks on the out years could potentially be very valuable. And also at some point, you have to consider Pat Riley's age, like how much longer is he going to be around to be pulling rabbits out of his hat with this organization when they seem back to into a corner. First of all, Pat Riley would never cover his beautiful hair with a hat. And so, kind of all, I cosign everything you just said and have been driving that bus for four months, or three months, or however many months it's been since this all started.

Well, if you're pulling the rabbit out of the hat, by definition, you don't have to run out of the hat. Yeah, you're holding it. The other interesting thing I think is the contrast between San Antonio, and this is something Andrew and I wrote about on Tuesday on ESPN.com, which is kind of the spurs slow plane after landing Victor when Manama, the marquee pick up of their off season was a 2030 pick swap with the Dallas Mavericks. And Portland has seemingly not taken the same approach to the Damian Lillard trade, despite the fact that they had, you know, the number three pick in this year's draft and the guy they're building around, whether you wanna say it's scooter, shade, and shark, is essentially on the same timeline as when being the spurs.

So I think that's interesting. You had a resting rules take you wanted to unleash on the world. Unleash it. I think it is unlikely that the rest issue is one that is gonna be solved through rules changes.

Like there's just too much gray area in terms of who's actually injured, who is, you know, healthy enough to play but resting that element of it. I mean, if you go back to the games that people were actually upset about players missing last season, I think a relatively small percentage of those were actually characterized as rest, or even the injury management that the league decided is allowed on a case-by-case basis. You know, Luca Donchich did not play in both ends of a back-to-back for several months, the bulk of the season. And I am pretty sure off the top of my head that none of those were characterized as rest, maybe a couple were injury management, but it was, you know, minor injuries of the kind that affect every player over the course of the season.

Now, I think what the NBA would say in terms of that is, maybe we're not gonna fix this through rules, but we already did a lot of the things that other things you would want us to do in terms of not having these marquee national games be part of back-to-backs. When possible, you know, increasing the calendar, the schedule, so that there are a few or back-to-backs things in that nature. And now the teams need to meet us halfway. I think would be the league's position on this.

The other thing I thought I have on the rule, you know, in terms of downside is I wonder if we have, and I'm not gonna know what I hope we don't see this, I can't drink it scenario, where a player suffers a horrific injury in front of a national TV audience, and then says afterwards, well, you know, I didn't really feel comfortable playing in that game, but I wasn't able to rest it. What happens then? Oof. Well, that's a downer of a note to end our segment on.

All interesting thoughts. I'm just, I just kind of want to see how it works, and it could be much to do about not very much once we get into the season. Kevin Pelton, your work is second to none. You have the piece with Andrew Lopez today on the Spurs and Victor Wibanyama.

I'm gonna bring on Andrew Lopez right now. Good timing. Thank you, sir. I will see you soon.

Sounds good, thanks for having me. All right, let's bring in our Southwest division guru. Is it to Southwest division? Andrew Lopez, live from New Orleans, Louisiana.

How are you? I'm good. I'm a, I like that. I think Southwest division guru.

I wanna, I may have to change my Twitter by up to that at some point today. My division knowledge is a little rusty. Is it the Southwest division? That's a privilege.

That's okay. Is the Southwest division, that is correct. Just divisions just don't have the same heft in the NBA. Is it like AFC East is like a thing?

NFC East is a thing from my childhood that is still a thing. Southwest division, I'm not hanging a banner. Did the Grizzlies hang a banner? I assume they won the Southwest division.

I would assume, I would assume they hung a banner. If I owned an NBA team, none of this banner. No division banners? No division banner bull, no like, no John Bon Jovi, no Bon Jovi banners in the Air Canada center or whatever it's called now.

We're hanging a championship banners, conference championship, you could sway me. Other than that, I'm not doing Southwest division. I like it. I like it.

Only winners, this is what we do. Winners are banners. You know what, no, I'm gonna go conference champions because it's hard to win a conference championship. That's a real accomplishment.

Making the NBA Finals is a real accomplishment. I'm hanging a banner, but it's gonna be a smaller one and it has to be like in the corner somewhere. It has to be a smaller banner. You put it right next to your Taylor Swift, sold out concerts banner.

Taylor Swift has been a huge part of my life for the last six months. I said, I told, I was, I made the mistake of telling a 12 year old girl in a barbecue over the weekend that my favorite Taylor Swift song is blank space and she like a middle schooler rolled her eyes and was like, oh, that's embarrassing. She literally said to me, that's embarrassing. Okay, sorry.

Okay, breaking news on the podcast, Andrew Lopez, who has covered the Pelicans for how many seasons now? This probably since 18 overall, since 19 for us here at ESPN. And let's be honest, you've been covering the Zion, Williamson experience as much as the Pelicans. The star driven small market team beat is a fickle mistress and Zion Williamson is being left ditched.

Andrew Lopez is moving to San Antonio to cover the new shiny object victor, winbanyama. Sorry, Zion, you had your shot at Andrew Lopez. Sorry, Pelicans, you had your shot. He's moving on.

Everyone's got to move on with life. So you are relocating to San Antonio, but you're going to still have Pelicans under your tire, right? As you can see, we are preparing for these moves. As you see, these very, very bare walls behind me as we get to do that.

But move to San Antonio is happening. I think next week, I should probably figure that out. Next week, we're moving to San Antonio and victor, winbanyama. We'll be at the forefront of what I do, but obviously still covering Peles and doing everything else around the NBA that we need.

But based in San Antonio starting this season. We're going to start with the Peles because they actually have things at stake this season. I think the Spurs are going to be fine bringing winbany on slowly. I think they're reporting that's been out there that they're going to slot him in as a power forward and not over-tax him at center is going to prove accurate.

And they will not mind having another high pick in this draft, which they will almost have by default despite being fairly deep in like decent NBA talent. Actually, 17 guys with guaranteed money. But in a Western conference where everyone up to and including even the Rockets is trying hard to win games, like by default, the Spurs are going to have another high pick to add to their bushel of picks. So let's start with the Pelicans who have some stuff at stake.

Last season, play in disappointment. The season before Frisky first-round appearance without Zion against the Suns. Zion, of course, missed that entire season. Harold did some promise in the wake of the CJ McCollum trade, extended CJ McCollum, extended Zion Williamson.

Brandon Ingram is super max eligible, potentially his Bobby Marks outline. This team is actually $2.9 million over the luxury tax, has never ever paid the luxury tax. And in a loaded Western conference, they have ambitions of doing stuff and it's kind of time to do stuff. Unfortunately for them, they just cannot catch a break.

Ever. Trey Murphy is out probably nine to 11 weeks now because I think a week's pass since the report with a meniscus there and boy oh boy, was that dude poised for a potential breakout season. Talk about a guy, even though I think he was going to be slated as their sixth man, with his shooting, catching goability, athleticism, solid defense, really ties their team together in a lot of ways, that's a huge loss. And then Jose Elvarado sprains an ankle, uncertain for training camp.

Andrew, I just, I saw, I'm okay saying this. I saw CJ McCollum at an event last week in New York. We talked for a little bit. Jose hadn't gotten injured yet.

And he was just like, man, I just want 25, 30 games. I just want to see the team for 25 or 30 games. CJ, Zion, and BI have famously played in only 10 games together since the acquisition of CJ McCollum. It's 172 minutes.

You know what, by heart? They're plus six, you know, it's 172 minutes. Opponents have missed every three in mid range jump shot in those minutes. So they're getting lucky a little bit.

But I don't know where to start with this group because they need to make a push. And just right out of the gate, typical pelicans, they're a snake bit. And then let's start one with Jose. Obviously the report came out about him having started an ankle.

He did do that over the weekend. I think he's on like a scooter right now. He's got the, you know, they're doing all the process. If he for camp, you know, from what I'm hearing, he should be fine for the start of the regular season, which is at least a positive, you know, we're what?

Five, six weeks away at this point from actual regular season games. You know, maybe pre-season you won't be able to go, but he should be fine for regular season. And then Trey, you mentioned kind of sliding in as a six man. There were some whispers that he could have been a starter this year.

And I think if you want to make the argument that when even if everybody's healthy, that Trey's their third best player, I think I would listen to that. Whoo, whoo. So. I had a CJ, I assume, say you're sliding CJ into number four.

I was, yeah. I mean, you can make that argument. You know, apologies to ESPN employees, CJ McCollum. But I think Trey was ready to make that kind of a jump this year and definitely would have slotted in at six man could have slotted in, you know, as a starter if you wanted to move her around or how they wanted to play around with that starting lineup.

But that was a big blow to them. And obviously him coming back from that has already kind of started, you know, started attacking his rehab. I think he would be on the earlier end of that initial 10 to 12 week prediction or projection I should say. So, but it is just, it's kind of, you know, when the Jose stuff came out or when the Trey stuff came out, you know, a lot of pelvis fans were tweeting about it.

We really need to get like a, like a voodoo priest to come in and like, just get rid of all this bad juju here. I don't know. I mean, how many times can they overhaul the training staff, which they did in this offseason? And still like, I mean, it's, it's nobody's fault.

Sometimes it just like stuff just happens. And from what I heard, Trey Murphy, just the thing happened in like a totally random non-contact. They're just kind of shooting around in the gym and all of a sudden it's like, oh, something feel great. Right.

And it's, and it sucks where a guy like Trey who had been making, you know, tremendous strides in his game. And I think the confidence in his own game had been growing. But as much as it comes down to with the, you know, the little injuries, you can, the pelvis, they can sustain the little injuries or they can get by the little injuries. It's when something happens to Brandon and when something happens to Zion and when something happens to, you know, even CJ trying to play through things is one of the things to get a little dice in, you know, to CJ's point that he told you, can you just get 25 to 30 games with those three?

And then you grow from there. And I think that's, you know, you mentioned that there are making some changes to the training staff this year. That's the goal is you want to see these guys as healthy as possible. And you know, that's going to be the key.

Well, let's not bury the lead. What is the latest you have heard or seen on the big fella? So right now, big fella has, he's made some changes to his personal staff in terms of his strength and conditioning, his training staff. He did stay in the warlands a little bit longer than what he has normally done in the past, normally he's gone and trained elsewhere for about a month and a half.

He was at the facility a lot more this year than he had been in previous years. They released some pictures of him, I think, a couple of weeks ago that kind of got some fans buzzing a little bit. I'm out, I'm out on the Zion picture and clip industrial complex. I'm out.

I don't want to see it. Same thing with Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons clip industrial complex. I don't care.

I don't want to see him. I'm not being mean about it. I just cool Zion did a dunk and then there was a spec, remember the one there was a speculation was like, is the floor bouncy? Is the floor up here to like descend upon impact?

Like I'm not, how is he looking, is he playing basketball? He is. He played pick up with the guys a couple of weeks ago. I heard the same.

When a lot of people were in town. I think basically everybody was in town, I think, outside of, I think the three Fiba guys, Brandon Dyson, JV. So he was in town, he played a little bit of pick up. He's doing more with them than he has in the past.

But again, this is going to come down to help. They've been doing a little bit of some different things, trying to get him ready. That's been a focus for him and his family getting his lower body ready to play more than 30 games this season. So I mean, that's just where he's at right now, something he's only done once so far in his NBA career.

Sometimes you say those things, those numbers, and it just kind of breaks my brain for a second. Like when you said only done once, 30 games. It's like, man, we've been talking about this guy for a long time. Is the expectation that he plays opening night?

Yes, right now. I've heard the same. I've heard he looks rusty, but good, but in spurts, they're seeing like, oh, there it is. There's the guy who is a by himself in elite NBA offense.

I don't mean by himself to minimize the contributions of others. It's just he's such an unusual player and such a forceful player that, for instance, in preparation for this podcast, I was like, let me see what the minutes have been. And obviously any Zion sample is going to be small with Herb, Zion, and JV, all together on the floor. Because I do think plan A for the Pelicans is to start CJ, Ingram, Herb, Zion, Valentunus.

Because from what I've heard, they just, Trey can fit, I mean, Trey fits like a glove in the starting five. It's just a difficult conversation because CJ and Brandon Ingram are not coming off the bench at this stage in their careers. Brandon Ingram obviously was like a borderline all NBA player last year. And Herb's defense, they just need someone in that lineup whose first priority is defense.

And Trey can do that, but Herb is an all defense level player. So I was like, let me look up Herb, Zion, JV, because despite JV's flirtation with shooting threes, and he does it, there's not a lot of shooting or spacing when you have those three guys on the floor, most regardless of who the other two are. 119 points per 100 possessions, which would be the number one offense. And the guy is just, he's not a bowling ball.

He's like an atomic bomb that goes off in the lane, and there's just no precedent for it. And his speed, his explosiveness, his finishing, his ability to draw fouls, put back his own misses, pass out of double teams, do pretty much everything on offense from screening to posting up, to running pick and rolls to just being a complete menace to society and transition. It's just, it's spacing proof, it's scheme proof. If he's on the floor, they will have an elite offense, or a good enough offense.

And by the way, the steam was 20th in offense last year and sixth in defense, which kind of like the Bulls in the East who were fifth in defense feels impossible given the personnel that they played. And they did get a little lucky, I think they had the lowest three point shooting opponent, three point shooting in the league. But they forced a lot of turnovers, they rebound, and they don't protect the rim pretty well because they don't have a rim protector, they prevent people from getting used to the rim, somehow, partly by allowing tons of threes. But I don't know that that sixth is like sustainable for them, but if they could keep it at like 12th and get a Zion off, it's 55 games out of Zion and have the ninth best offense, now you're talking about a team that has a shot to make the playoffs.

Did you have looked at what they're over under is? I'm not actually. 44 and a half, they're in a bushel of teams with like Dallas and Sacramento, I think it's only at 44 and a half from what I've seen a bunch of teams in the West. And look, no fans of teams like the Pelicans in the Western Conference wanna hear this.

There are like eight teams who if you told me they finished third in the West, and this is a team that was 18 and eight to start last season, I'll be like, okay, that's a nice season for them. Obviously they stayed healthy, got lucky, got some breaks. Or if you told me they finished 11th in the West, I'd be like, okay, that's kind of makes sense. I'm sure somebody got injured and some other teams were better than expected.

That's the reality of the West this season. It's gonna be absolutely packed. And some teams with the really lofty ambitions are gonna look up in the standings in March and be like, oh my God, are we gonna miss the playin'? Yeah, and it's, I mean, to your point, I mean, they're from earlier.

I mean, everybody in the West, except for really the Spurs, are having visions to win games this year. And are pushing to be in the play or be in the playoffs. And I think that's like it, and it's come down to health so much since Zion has been in New Orleans that, you know, Pell's fans talk to feel a little jaded. When it comes down, every injury for Pell's fans, they start to feel like, you know, it's the end of the world.

He's just a tiny, sprained ankle for Jose that's gonna keep him out. All right, he's not gonna be healthy at the start of training camp. But then Pell's gonna go back and remember, man, you know what? Maybe if we had Jose for the last two months of the season, maybe things were going a little bit different.

And that's just how, how much that, you know, Jose, he meant to the offense and how much just injuries have kind of taken out expectations for Pell's fans and how much it's just hurt everybody. And it's not just the, I mean, it's like a CJ dealt with the thumb injury that kind of affected him for the last two and a half months of the season. Larry Nance was the only shoulder injury that hurt him. And then the ankle sprained end up keeping him out of the playing game.

Jose Brandon has missed time. Zion has missed time. So it's a number of different guys who need to stay healthy for this team and to make it through. And like you said, if you look up in large and they're in 11th, I'm gonna assume that, you know, somebody got hurt and if they're third, I'm gonna assume that nobody did.

Everything went right for a team for the first time in five years, but they had, you know, everything kind of breaks right for them. Maybe I should do breaks right. I don't even know, I don't even know like what a reasonable ideal projection for Zion is. Like, you want to say like if they get 70 games, like by reflex, when you talk about players, like what if they get 70 games out of LeBron, they get 70 games out of AD, like I just, I can't imagine they're ever gonna get 70 games out of Zion, but if they do, that's amazing.

I kind of default to like 55 games. I don't even, what, is there a reasonable number on like, he has no serious like miss weeks kind of injury. If he gets through a whole season without such a thing, how many games can he actually play? So let's go back to second season.

That's the one year he played the most, 61 of 72. And really he missed the last five with a broken finger that maybe he could have played on. That was like that freak injury where he, you know, I think he's going to throw it on. I mean, I mean, he was looking at missing seven games that season, 72.

I mean, that's, you know, we, that's what we've seen of him when his one healthy season now that's been his one of four. I mean, that it's not ideal. So, but I think you can, if you can get, and we can use the 65 since that's the market for all NBA now, I think that would be, I think ideal, if you can get that out of him. If you, if he can put himself into the conversations for awards or all NBA and everything like that, I think you have to feel good about what his season is not.

Even if he's coming in at 65, 66 and he's just right on the threshold. Like I said, the one year he did play, I mean, because of the broken finger, he sits at last five or six, I think they're out of contention at that point. You know, he could have played Miss Abundi. It was just a, I think it was an ankle here or something like that.

It was a small injury for him. I think even that year it was a, he missed the game because he had a false COVID positive. I think that was an L.A. game.

He plays the next game. So, he has shown that in one season. So, I think if you can get 65 out of him, that, that, you know, new award threshold, then you know, you'd have to feel pretty good about what you can get from his season with, what that would mean for the fellas. Trey Murphy and Jose Elvarado are probably two of their three most important bench players along with Larry Nance Jr.

Trey Murphy is really at the, one of the closest things to a six-starter that there is in the NBA when healthy. So, those are big losses. Let's assume Jose is ready for the season. So, it's not a big big loss.

They actually have like pretty good depth. I mean, one of the luxuries they have in having these three guys in C.J. Ingram and Zion, who work with the ball a lot, is they can stagger those guys really aggressively, keeping one or even in tight games late too, on the floor at all times. So, you don't need to dip into the kind of next layer of bench guys.

Next layer of bench guys has kind of served them well at times. Like, it'll be interesting to see what Dyson Daniels gives them in year two. Naji Marshall is just sort of like, insert at any time you need anything. And he just kind of cuts and slashes and does, defends really hard and like, does his stuff.