Perspectives: Episode 96 – Riding the cycle

In this episode, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, talks about riding the cycle – physically and metaphorically. In a world where there are so many distractions vying for investors' attention, how can investors "tape up their mirrors"? (0:57) Tracey, before we start, our clients have been asking for an update on your riding. You have been doing some training, I hear, on a racetrack. (3:35) So let's go there. The obvious distraction for investors at the moment is geopolitical risk. How are you guarding against that? (8:28) What is the data telling you at the moment? (9:48) Okay, so the risk that the US is going into recession has declined significantly, but what about earnings? We are about halfway through US earnings season. Are we at risk of an earnings recession? (12:36) We need to talk about AI Tracey. Let's talk about Apple. Apple continues to move extremely quietly in the AI world – we are really not hearing too much from them. An interesting feature of Apple's last earnings call was the absence of any mention of artificial intelligence. (16:43) Turning to Australia, we had a troubling inflation report last week. It told a similar story that we are hearing in other parts of the world, that service sector inflation remains sticky. Does this change your view on Australian equities?