“Péter Magyar is a much more dangerous opponent for the government than any other former challenger”

When Hungarians voted in elections to the European Parliament in 2024, Dániel Róna was alone in predicting a 30% vote for the insurgent campaign of former regime insider Péter Magyar and his Tisza party.Since then, Magyar’s support has only grown so that, as a national election approaches on April 12, Róna’s 21 Research Centre – in common with all independent pollsters – is convinced that Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz movement are at their most vulnerable since taking power in 2010.“We conduct many polls – face-to-face polls, phone polls, hybrid surveys, online surveys – and all of them show the same tendency that Tisza has a sizeable lead over Fidesz, and other parties became more and more insignificant,” Róna tells the Twenty-Four Two podcast. Until now, Orbán’s opposition cannibalised each other’s votes and made little attempt to appeal to the soft Fidesz electorate. “Péter Magyar is the first one who has the priority to do that, and that matters a lot … That’s one of the reasons why Péter Magyar is a much more dangerous opponent for the government than any other former challenger”.However, Róna still believes the April election is a toss-up. “I know it sounds strange because, in most democracies, with such a significant lead ... the chances shouldn’t be that close. But it’s Hungary. It’s not a liberal democracy. It’s an authoritarian regime or a hybrid regime or spin dictatorship”. Fidesz has a huge financial and media advantage and an electoral system that means Tisza needs at least a five-point popular lead to secure a one-seat parliamentary majority. Twenty-Four Two is hosted by Tim G. Jones and Pepijn Bergsen and is a podcast from 242.news - a newsletter focused on the remaking of Europe since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24/2/2022. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit twentyfourtwo.substack.com