Phoebe Arslanagić-Little: Fertility, Family Policy, and the Birth Gap

Why are people having fewer children than they say they want? In this episode, writer and policy thinker Phoebe Arslanagić-Little joins me to discuss the UK fertility crisis and what she calls the “birth gap”: the gap between the number of children people say they want and the number they actually have. We talk about why this is not just about money, but a mix of culture, career timing, housing, childcare, social norms, and the feeling that you need to reach some elusive state of readiness before having children.We also get into maternity pay, paternity leave, grandparents, childcare, state signals, dating apps, and what surprised Phoebe most about becoming a mother. As she puts it, “I don’t really subscribe to any of the theories that say, oh, it’s this one thing. I think it genuinely is like a confluence of factors.” And on the role of government: “I think the state should very openly say there are people who want to have children. We think that’s great. We’d like to help them.”Transcript: https://www.thendobetter.com/investing/2026/3/22/phoebe-arslanagi-little-on-fertility-family-policy-and-the-birth-gapContents:00:00 Fertility Crisis Defined01:25 Overpopulation Narrative Origins03:22 Is the Birth Gap Real04:59 Why People Delay Kids06:41 Culture and Readiness Standards09:51 Policy Levers to Boost Births13:06 Making Birth Less Traumatic15:13 Paternity Leave and Social Engineering22:05 State Neutrality and Universal Benefits27:36 Grandparents and Informal Childcare31:24 Single Parents and China Lessons34:52 Best Family Policy Levers36:33 Childcare Costs and Incentives38:31 Childcare Ratios Debate40:21 Safety Versus Deregulation41:33 Underrated Overrated Round42:20 Food Fears and Animal Welfare45:12 Astrology and Lab Meat47:41 Pubs Alcohol and E Bikes52:18 Dating Apps and Social Mixing58:49 Writing Process and Motherhood01:01:49 Projects Advice and Wrap Up