EPISODE · Jan 1, 2026 · 15 MIN
PM 101 | Ep 1: What is a Prediction Market?
from Prediction Markets HQ: Daily Sports · host Prediction Markets HQ | Daily Sports Betting, Kalshi & Polymarket Data
You wouldn't accept a raw deal at a casino counter, yet millions of bettors pay a hidden "tax" every Sunday in sportsbook apps. In this premiere episode of Prediction Markets 101, David Price and Alex Mercer pull back the curtain on the "vig" and introduce a more efficient way to play: the prediction market.Learn why price equals probability and how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are turning gamblers into traders. We move beyond the jargon of minus-one-ten and plus-one-forty to show you how a simple 60-cent share can represent a 60% chance of an outcome, allowing you to manage positions and exit trades before the final whistle.The fundamental difference between a sportsbook and a marketplace.Why "Price is Probability" is the most important concept in trading.The math of the Vigorish: How sportsbooks hide their fees.Understanding the share-based model: Buying at $0.60 to settle at $1.00.The Wisdom of Crowds: Why markets are often smarter than pundits.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. Contact: [email protected]"Nowhere Land"Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
What this episode covers
You wouldn't accept a raw deal at a casino counter, yet millions of bettors pay a hidden "tax" every Sunday in sportsbook apps. In this premiere episode of Prediction Markets 101, David Price and Alex Mercer pull back the curtain on the "vig" and introduce a more efficient way to play: the prediction market.Learn why price equals probability and how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are turning gamblers into traders. We move beyond the jargon of minus-one-ten and plus-one-forty to show you how a simple 60-cent share can represent a 60% chance of an outcome, allowing you to manage positions and exit trades before the final whistle.The fundamental difference between a sportsbook and a marketplace.Why "Price is Probability" is the most important concept in trading.The math of the Vigorish: How sportsbooks hide their fees.Understanding the share-based model: Buying at $0.60 to settle at $1.00.The Wisdom of Crowds: Why markets are often smarter than pundits.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. Contact: [email protected]"Nowhere Land"Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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PM 101 | Ep 1: What is a Prediction Market?
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