PMI in Focus: Stockpiling and the Shadow of Stagflation

In this May 2026 episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists Paul Smith, Eleanor Dennison, and Andrew Harker dissect the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data to reveal how ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the global economic landscape. The team explores the ripple effects of supply chain disruptions, energy price surges, and heightened uncertainty on both manufacturing and service sectors across key regions. Listeners will gain a comprehensive overview of the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI, highlighting modest growth in business activity alongside mounting inflationary pressures. The episode explores the eurozone's contrasting sector performance, with manufacturing buoyed by precautionary stockpiling and services facing contraction amid record-high uncertainty. Andrew Harker provides granular insights into commodity price movements, supply shortages, and the nuanced pass-through of costs in Asian economies, while Eleanor Dennison offers a deep dive into eurozone trends and the qualitative evidence from PMI panelists. Tune in for expert analysis on stagflation risks, the challenges of forecasting in volatile times, and the critical role of PMI data in navigating economic turning points. Whether you're tracking inflation, supply chains, or global business sentiment, this episode delivers timely intelligence for decision-makers. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: PMI data and commentary Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: May 2026 Click here for a special PMI client case study For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Paul Smith Guests: Andrew Harker, Eleanor Dennison Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun