Polarization and Impunity: Peru's First-Round Presidential Election

This episode examines the aftermath of Peru's first-round presidential election held on April 12, 2025, recorded just five days later with results still not fully finalized. Host Adam Isacson speaks with Cynthia McClintock, a professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University who has studied Peruvian politics for over four decades. The conversation describes an extraordinarily fragmented and polarized electoral landscape. With 35 candidates on the ballot, the leading vote-getter—Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former authoritarian president Alberto Fujimori—led the count with only about 17 percent of the vote. The race for second place remained too close to call between Roberto Sánchez, a leftist candidate running under the mantle of impeached former president Pedro Castillo, and Rafael López Aliaga, a right-wing populist who served as mayor of Lima. The runoff, between candidates who will combine for less than 30 percent of the first-round vote, is scheduled for June 7th. McClintock traces Peru's current political dysfunction to the period following the 2016 election, during which Fujimori's party discovered the power of congressional impeachment. Peru has cycled through nine presidents in ten years, and McClintock argues that a corrupt governing coalition has consolidated power, particularly since Castillo's impeachment in December 2022. The discussion highlights the deep geographic and cultural divisions in Peruvian society. The gap between Lima and "las provincias"—Indigenous-majority rural and mountainous regions—manifests starkly in voting patterns. This division traces back centuries and reflects ongoing perceptions of discrimination and exclusion, even as economic indicators have improved. Organized crime and security are voters' primary concerns. While Peru's homicide rate remains low by regional standards, it has more than doubled since 2021-2022. Extortion has become particularly urgent. Yet paradoxically, Peru's economy continues to grow, buoyed by high commodity prices for copper and gold, though much mining activity is illegal and environmentally devastating. McClintock expresses concern about the future of accountability and democratic institutions. The newly reconstituted Senate grants Fujimori's party approximately one-third of seats, with significant power over appointments. On U.S.-Peru relations, she notes the current government has stayed under Washington's radar and is proceeding with a $3.5 billion F-16 purchase, though the Chinese-built Chancay port remains a potential point of tension. The episode concludes with McClintock explaining how the chaotic 35-candidate field happened by design: Fujimori's party had previously canceled a primary voting provision that would have winnowed the field, calculating that extreme fragmentation would allow them to win with a small plurality. Despite the grim political outlook, McClintock emphasizes the resilience of Peru and its people. Download this podcast episode's .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA's Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.