Positive Thinking: Conditional Probability, Bayes' Theorem, and the Base-Rate Fallacy

from The Math Club · host Pete and Noah

In this episode, Noah's certain that he has a disease because he tested positive on a test that's 99% accurate. Does that mean he almost certainly has the disease? Pete's not so sure, and brings up a statistics concept to help shed some light on the numbers. • Our online simulator that you can play with • Submit your puzzle answer here • Leave us a voice message • Email us • Follow us on Twitter Questions Answered in This Episode: • What is Bayes' Theorem? • How does conditional probability affect medical test results?

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This episode was published on June 29, 2022.

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