Post Election Analysis With Laura Belin

Laura Belin’s Analysis of Iowa’s Primary Election ResultsLaura Belin, editor of Bleeding Heartland and co-host of the Iowa Down Ballot podcast, joined the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative the morning after Iowa’s primary election to help unpack what happened and what it means for November.Her overall conclusion: Iowa voters sent a clear message that they are looking for candidates who engage directly with voters and offer something different from the political establishment.Feenstra’s Defeat Was the Story of the NightBelin described Randy Feenstra’s loss in the Republican gubernatorial primary as the biggest surprise of the election.In her view, Feenstra entered the race with virtually every advantage imaginable. He was a sitting member of Congress, enjoyed strong establishment support, had significant fundraising, and received a late endorsement from Donald Trump.Yet he lost.Belin argued that Feenstra’s campaign strategy was fundamentally flawed. He avoided debates, skipped multi-candidate forums, held mostly small events with supporters, and rarely placed himself in situations where voters could ask difficult questions.She said Iowa voters still expect candidates to show up and earn their support, and Feenstra never did.Meanwhile, Zach Lahn did.Why Zach Lahn Connected With VotersBelin believes Zach Lahn’s appeal stemmed from his outsider status and his focus on issues that many Iowans believe are being ignored.His campaign centered on four themes:* Young people leaving Iowa* The decline of family farms* Struggles within public education* Iowa’s high cancer ratesBelin noted that Lahn also spoke openly about water quality, agricultural consolidation, and corporate influence—issues that aren’t commonly emphasized by Republican candidates.Because he has never held elected office, voters were able to view him as a fresh face rather than someone responsible for the state’s current problems.That made him a particularly effective change candidate.Trump’s Endorsement Arrived Too LateBelin believes Donald Trump’s endorsement probably helped Feenstra but wasn’t enough to overcome the campaign’s weaknesses.She suggested Republican insiders became concerned when polling showed Feenstra underperforming and Lahn gaining momentum, leading to a last-minute effort to secure Trump’s backing.Had Trump endorsed Feenstra months earlier, Belin speculated, the outcome might have been different.Instead, one of Trump’s endorsed candidates lost one of the highest-profile primary races of the year.Josh Turek’s Senate VictoryOn the Democratic side, Belin attributed Josh Turek’s decisive Senate primary victory largely to the enormous amount of outside spending supporting his candidacy.Millions of dollars from VoteVets helped introduce Turek to Democratic voters and tell his personal story across the state.Belin said many Democrats genuinely liked both Turek and Zach Wahls. Rather than choosing between a strong candidate and a weak candidate, voters were choosing between two candidates they generally respected.The difference, she argued, was visibility.Turek simply had far more advertising reaching voters.Belin also said Tom Harkin’s endorsement likely helped Turek, though she was surprised the campaign didn’t emphasize it more heavily.Turnout Was Stronger Than ExpectedOne of the night’s more surprising developments was voter turnout.Republican turnout exceeded expectations despite weak early-voting numbers.Democratic turnout was significantly higher than many analysts predicted, even though Democrats had only one truly competitive statewide contest.Belin said the stronger Democratic turnout could be an encouraging sign for Democrats heading into the general election.Legislative Results Show Continued Republican ShiftBelin pointed to the defeats of Republican legislators Brian Lohse and Jane Bloomingdale as evidence that Iowa’s Republican Party continues moving away from its moderate wing.Both lawmakers were viewed as more pragmatic Republicans and were targeted by conservative groups.Their defeats suggest that the center of gravity within the party continues to move rightward.Rob Sand Faces a Tougher OpponentLooking ahead to November, Belin believes Rob Sand would have preferred to face Feenstra rather than Lahn.Sand has built his campaign around the idea that Iowa needs change after years of one-party Republican control.The challenge now is that Lahn is making a very similar argument.Because Lahn has never served in elected office, Democrats cannot tie him to unpopular legislative decisions or congressional votes.Belin expects Sand’s campaign to emphasize Lahn’s years living in Kansas and attempt to define him early before voters form firm impressions.Still, she believes Lahn presents a more complicated challenge than Feenstra would have.Data Centers Are Emerging as a Major Political IssueFormer legislator Chuck Isenhart joined the discussion and predicted that data centers could become one of Iowa’s most significant political issues.He pointed to a new moratorium on data-center development in Dubuque County and suggested the issue could become as contentious as carbon pipelines.Several participants agreed that data centers may affect nearly every county in Iowa and could become a major issue in local elections across the state.The Bottom LineBelin’s central theme throughout the discussion was simple:Iowa voters reward candidates who engage with them.Feenstra largely avoided voters and paid the price.Zach Lahn spent months building a message around issues many Iowans care deeply about and earned an upset victory.Meanwhile, Josh Turek demonstrated the power of a compelling biography backed by substantial outside spending.And as Iowa heads toward November, Belin expects the governor’s race between Rob Sand and Zach Lahn to be far more competitive—and far less predictable—than many observers anticipated.Follow Laura Belin. 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