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The results coming from Republicans in the Hawkeye state. The suspense is less on who will win than by just how much former President Trump seems poised to trounse his closest rivals in the contest. Lord of Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Breaking it down with me is someone who's been on postgame many times before, but never as a guest.
NBC News 2 political analyst Chuck Todd Chuck. It's so great to be reunited here in Iowa. It's great to be here. First of all, how great is Western South?
Amazing. I want to buy almost everything here. It is like these amazing, like they hand make this table. I hope people like go back and see the table with this peacock.
The folks here made this desk. This isn't like something NBC did. This is something here to find folks at West End coverage. It is fantastic.
It really is fantastic. This table, as you say, this desk is so incredibly special. And you could just spend hours looking at everything here. The good news is, you know, it's somewhere in some sort of facility.
Can we like, can we try to table out? Let's go get it. I already talked to someone, one of our crew guys who said I already bought something. Is it shipped to my house?
Is that for floor building? Yeah, you could spend the whole day here. Absolutely. Now that we've lost everybody in the office.
Yeah, exactly. No, they're going to come here. Now they're curious. Let's talk about these poll numbers.
It shows what we would expect that former President Trump is leading by about 30 points. It also shows that Nikki Haley has edged into second place. What do you make up the poll numbers and how seriously are you taking the second place by Nikki Haley? Well, look, I mean, I think that the fascinating aspect was the only good news for the Haley in this poll was the horse race number, right?
Yeah, she was in second place. But when you look at the fundamentals, her foot photo was much less enthusiastic than the descent disorder. And you start to think about cold weather and all of this. So you put all of that together.
But I do think we've, you know, Nikki Haley's had that final week. Like, you know, here was something. Everything was really going, everything really had gone well for her this last month. It had really built to the moment.
And Chris Christie, the timing of his exit couldn't have better for her. Like, she couldn't have asked for a better day for him to get out the day of her one on one debate with the Santas and Ireland. It was just everything went well. And then she made, there was sort of like three couple of unforced errors, right?
It begins with the slavery from a lack of comment. Then it is the little shot of Iowa, which was a friendly little joke. But be careful what you say, what happens in nature, right? We'll travel to Iowa to Santas, campaign, smartly put money behind it, amplify it.
And then she was not good at the bait. You know, it's interesting about about. So I love the presidential primary process and why Winnoin Fields does expose something. Nikki Haley was a terrific debater when there were six, five, six people on stage and she had a foil.
The bait was a tremendous, he was a huge asset. It's a great point. Huge asset. Him not being on that stage.
Suddenly, she didn't have the foil that made her look like she was being unfairly attacked. Yeah. Rob DeSantis is a guy that in a big eight-person debate, he didn't know how to stand out. He didn't know how to be quicky.
Nikki Haley was going to be quicky, but in a two-person debate, anything about quips? You've got to know some details. Suddenly, the wonk, DeSantis, had the advantage. And I heard DeSantis live.com business.
I think it was a turnoff. I thought DeSantis, his answer. I'm still stuck on this constitution answer that he gave, which I thought was terrific. That was the best answer.
He could have given on this, and I was like, where was this six months ago? Am I actually going over somebody's daily book? Well, but to your point, Chuck, he may have felt like he had space to explain it in this context. Yes.
He had a word on it. I mean, he said it because it was, that's all he had to say. He didn't have to get into the details because he was trying to say is, look, Trump says all sorts of crazy word on it. And we all know what he means.
And it goes, but the most important thing he said is, I believe I'm a servant to the people, not a ruler of the people. So that's all I want to hear from my Democratic elected constitutional officers, right? It was amazing about that moment, I said, when Nikki Haley got her a chance to answer the question, she attacked them. And you're like, there was the wrong moment to attack him.
Right. You just under my both of your campaign. Yeah, it was a moment to go after. But that's in your storyline.
This entire election, Chuck, those missed moments to go after the front line. They go for each other. They go for each other. It's like, I mean, look at how much money the final 10 days of this campaign, but about Nikki Haley.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Exactly. Exactly.
Are you kidding me? So heading into New Hampshire, and we'll see what happens in Iowa where, by the way, as you discussed throughout the day, the S factor is the letter. Yes, it's a real win. Spend a lot of time talking about the letter today.
It's a coldest ever caucus. Yes. And, you know, look, as we were talking on the show, there are, there's evidence that Trump does, usually there's better or higher turnout. Yes.
His folks are very devoted. But rural, older folks, this weather, it and the complacency factor, everything is working against Trump. Everything is working against Haley because she also has the, she has the voter that's like, well, if I'm going to go, I'm going to pick her, if I'm going to go, if I'm going to go, and you're asking, and that 43% number of Biden supporters in her, how many of those people are, when they realize they have to register as a Republican, will that, will that distribute that? Yeah.
That's great. So then at least DeSantis has run a more traditional operation. So, in theory, this is, but, you know, to me, New Hampshire only matters if Trump's held under 50 and Haley finishes second. And by the way, just to go back to your DeSantis point for a moment, he has run a traditional campaign in terms of setting up and get out the vote, get out the caucus structure so that when you're facing the coldest caucus day in history, you actually have people who drive those seniors.
Right. I mean, the only thing I will say is my only yellow flag here is that DeSantis's campaign didn't do this. It's super effective. In the past, outsourcing grassroots to super PACs is usually a bad idea.
That's all. So let's talk about what, we'll wait and see what happens in Iowa, this fight for second place. Then we get to New Hampshire where Chris Christie has dropped out of the race, doesn't matter in Iowa. It could matter in New Hampshire where Nikki Henry is in striking distance of Trump.
And where, by the way, Ron DeSantis, his next stop after Iowa, South Carolina, now he's coming back to New Hampshire. I thought that was me. He was having a town hall. I go back to, I really think we got that the news media here has stumbled into a dispute inside DeSantis world.
No, interesting. I really want people to think they're going to South Carolina. And then about five hours later, they put out a press release indicating that you go to South Carolina first, but on the same day, he's going to do an event or the never back down folks are going to do an event in New Hampshire. It shows you they're not sure what they're going to do.
I think they think they're going to finish. My guess is, if they finish third night, well, I think he gets out. Okay. I was just going to say, I don't think he can, but maybe they think they're going to try South Carolina.
I could see them trying to for a day or two, see what donors say. If you finish the second hand, I could get out. And that just dilutes New Hampshire, which just played, which probably means Trump can win it within the low 40s. So you don't think you think it's much tougher for a Hayley to win.
Hayley, I think it's Hayley. We saw this in 16. It's funny how this is almost playing out, you said this time Trump is stronger, but you know, Trump is Trump. Cruz is kind of a scientist and Hayley and Rubio and Rubio had the same type of supporters that Hayley did.
Rubio was the guy surging in Iowa and he came and learned. Had he come in second and he finished ahead of Cruz or he'd been able to finish ahead of Trump. I think it would have been more like he came in third. It was a close third.
He came in third. And while there was an attempt to rally around him, that's when Christie for some unknown reason decided to go after him and say Cruz or Trump, which is still something that I think we're all trying to figure out. And that's why I think Hayley's doomed in New Hampshire. She doesn't understand her.
Well, and that just sets the stake of Iowa where by the way, there are so many interesting dynamics at play. Chuck, and one of them is what we're seeing with Evangelical. Iowans. Obviously they make up a majority of the caucus goers here in 2016, Trump lost them to Ted Cruz.
Now they are firmly behind him. And it's a fascinating shift because in some ways it's an ideological shift. You know what's interesting here is that Evangelical leaders have a change. Their congregate can't sit.
So they had to shift. You know, you talk to folks in this community, it's not many of these pastors are uncomfortable Trump's character. Don't like the words. And a lot of them lost congregants when they tried to say something the last time.
And some of them have decided they want to keep their congregation, their congregation likes this. So they back off. So in that sense, Trump has successfully changed the Evangelical, changed the congregate, not necessarily the leadership. That's the leaders want to be with the scientists.
You've seen that with the handouts. Right. Jonathan Martin wrote an interesting column where he wondered if the scientists made a mistake by not being more public about his faith here. That when you look at Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, they, and even Ted Cruz, all three of them constantly talked about their faith.
Ron DeSantis doesn't. He really is actually much more like a Midwestern Methodist than he is Evangelical or even Evangelical Catholic. Why do you think you know that? I mean, he's going after the Evangelical though.
I mean, that's what I'm talking about. I'm sorry. Right. Right.
Right. You know, sometimes you can't make people be something that they're not. Mike Huckabee was a pastor before he got into politics. So he was very comfortable preaching.
Right. Right. Rick Santorum was a religious political activist. So he was always comfortable weaving his religion and his politics together.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Right. That's actually, you know, this, you know, there's a little more, you know, I don't know. I don't want to offend anybody. Right.
Well, this goes back to something that you taught me and remind me and I think remind everyone which is such an important lesson, politics, which is that they are people. Yeah. Sometimes. We make them all like, you know, I said, that's where AWS stands.
Right. Sometimes there's the Cuban element here. We're not all AI or algorithms just yet. Yeah.
We're just seeing that play out here. One of the fascinating questions of this entire political moment is will there be a third party candidate? It sure seems like no labels feels very emboldened when they look at the polls when they see a third party candidate by no name does well, gets double digits. Chris Christie has been talking to them.
Right. Joe Manchin. Obviously gave that big speech this week in New Hampshire. What do you think we're going to see there?
Okay. I think we're going to see something tried. I mean, look, there's a great saying in politics and I'm a, it's a, you know, I'm not a very religious person, but I believe in this tenant, which is politics and horsebacking. Okay.
It's obvious we have a vacuum. Somebody's going to attempt to fill it. There was a vacuum in 1992 and a guy named Rossboro filled it and he filled it for a while. I would remind people Rossboro's candidacy didn't even get serious until March of that year.
I will. After New Hampshire, there was this, you know, at the time there was this fear that oh my God, Bill Clinton looks very weak in all this time. So I think something's going to percolate. Look, I don't know if Chris Christie is the right guy.
You know, I don't, the problem with these, the voters that don't want either Trump or Biden is, that's the only characteristic they share. Yeah. You know, they're ideologically all over the map. Right.
You have disaffected Dems, you've disaffected Republicans. You know, so it isn't easy. I think to find this, you know, I personally think that the only person that could galvanize is a, is a sort of retired, respected military leader. You know, I'm a, you know, maybe that's a bill Macraven.
But I don't know if he's well known enough. Like if they were the reincarnation of Colin Powell, that entity would be the galvanizing force. If Arnold Schwarzenegger were eligible, although I still think he ought to test the constitutional, he could be somebody that could capture this moment. I don't know if many other people could.
And that's, I, so I think it's going to happen. It doesn't mean it's successful. To me, the more interesting person to focus on is Liz Cheney. Okay.
She's got the most credibility of anybody to speak to the, to the, to the Trump skeptic voter who doesn't want to vote for Biden. What role does she play? Does she try to run herself? She's not what about?
She doesn't think it's a good idea. Does she try to start a new party? I personally think that if she, like if she shows up at the then convention, she no longer will be an effective persuader of this, of that voter. Like I think she has to figure out how to both be an anti-Trump surrogate without looking like, and making the Biden vote mean something more than just voting for Biden.
And you've written about Liz Cheney and the fact that she has provided a playbook for taking on Trump? She has. Look, it, I don't know if it's effective, right? Like, you know, I, I, she spoke at the time for choosing, I guess she spoke at the time for choosing series at the Reagan library.
And my buddy runs the Reagan library over there, said to me, yeah, we had a lot of people who had never been here before. And this change came from the point was they weren't Republicans. You know, they weren't Reagan voters, so they never showed up there. So, you know, who is her constituency?
Yeah. Look, I do think she speaks more credibly to it than Chris Christie does, because Chris Christie's anti-Trump, because every other avenue failed for him. Liz Cheney was at a position of strength when she went after Trump, right? Christie's been doing this from a position of weakness, so I think she might have more credibility with that.
She's the authenticity factor and doesn't have to account for having been more for the advisers. I mean, that was always the challenge for Chris Christie. But not like enthusiastically. Like it was always clear she was not a fan.
Right. So, Chuck finally, let me just ask you about President Biden, this fascinating dynamic that's playing out where you have former President Obama directly expressing some of his concerns about this moment to the President during the launch. And you have a lot of Democrats getting very worried about it. Let's think about who whispered into Obama's ear to whisper.
I know. Yes. You and I both covered President Obama. I was just going to say that.
Okay. He is not somebody that is going to go in there on his own to lecture by. He must be responding to a lot of people that whispered in his ear. Perhaps major donors, perhaps major political figures who are afraid to talk about it and figure that only Obama can.
It's a, so I look, I do think this is a White House that's doing so. You do see that Wilmington is filled with implementers, not decision makers. Yeah. Right.
The decision makers are travel with the President. They don't leave his side. Absolutely. There is a perception that it's sort of the five people around him and that's it.
You know, I have heard this, but like, you know, the sort of the mid managers of the West way, it's so little access to the President compared to every other administration. Because they keep this tight circle. So I do think there's an insularity to the campaign and it goes back to what it appears you're doing. They're constantly worried about off the cuff moments with him.
Right. And you know, it's honestly, to put in a football metaphor, it's like trying to play a prevent defense. All you do is you're preventing yourself from winning. Yeah.
You're trying to play a prevent defense with him on scripted moments and all you're doing is making it. Yeah. I just, you know, I just let Biden be like, this is going to be, I mean, get the country comfortable with grandpa. Yeah.
I mean, this is a positive, not a negative. But they've got to get away. They've got to get to positive. They've got to get to positive.
They've got to get to positive. Exactly. They need to. Instead of what it appears they're doing is trying to protect him from having to answer questions about it.
I want to bring up the Austin thing about it. Please. I think it was a gigantic mistake that Biden didn't fire Austin. Why?
Just for those who are listening to Defense Secretary Austin within the hospital for several days didn't tell the president, didn't tell the man. He's in the chain of command. Yeah. He has certain, there's actually certain orders that he can give where the president has already given him an authority to do this.
And we're in the middle of a bunch of hot things. This is, look, it's tough sometimes to fire somebody like, but this reminds me. Barack Obama. There was a lot of people pressuring him not to fire standing in my crystal.
I'm standing in my crystal. He talked off the cuff. I'm talking about this. But it was a really insult to the chain of command.
And at the end of the day, you got to respect it, particularly in the middle of the chain of command. This, I think, is just a huge, it's a missed opportunity. There's this perception that Biden's not in charge. There's this perception that, you know, he's not on top of things.
And you know what? Yeah. Apparently he's not. Apparently we don't know.
And apparently it is okay to do it in his administration. I'm sorry. I think it was a, I think this really erodes a leadership. A leader.
He's already got people questioning his ability to do the job right now to the age. And I think this was a huge misjudgment. And look, Austin, he's, I'm surprised he didn't offer his resignation. I'm surprised a retired general.
Because this would have been in the chain of command. If you're an active duty, you would have been demoted. To that point. Yeah.
No. And I spoke to Senatorors about this. But it was a dereliction of duty. And she wouldn't go so far as to say, yes, he should be fired.
She said we're going to investigate this. To the point you're making, Chuck. I mean, this is, the president is managing two wars. My whole kind of third.
How you want to describe the shipping channels. But United States of America is the world's cop on shipping links. Whether we don't, you don't like inflation. You want the United States of America worried about shipping links.
Right. So we had to do this. And we have to. And by the way, you know who should be cheering us on?
The Egyptian government is not getting fees from the Suez Canal. Right. The Egyptian government. Yeah.
To that point. I mean, and I've been thinking a lot about this as he's managing these wars. It is an opportunity for him to potentially. Clean energy.
Correct. Every day he's a commander. And I failed on this one. And because Austin failed him.
Yeah. That's the point here. Austin failed him. There should be zero tolerance for this administration.
Yeah. That's a, again, Barack Obama, a lot of you, a scamming person is a good guy. You really need him. All those things to be true.
I understand the personal relationship. Yeah. But this is, this is the problem. The whole argument against Donald Trump is he's personalizing the presidency and the constitution to, you can't personalize the presidency.
Yeah. This was a violation of the chain of command. Yeah. Well, I know you're going to be watching the caucus results.
What are the big football games? You're going to be watching this week. I'm hoping to get to the Packers Cowboys game here. Okay.
Go ahead. Here's where it goes. There you go. You know, your ego is going to be like that.
Is it over? It's never over for the eagle. But ain't over till it's over. That's what we say in the Phillies.
Well, we'll say, we'll say. As Yogi Barris said, thank you. This is great.