Power Laws, Venture Math, and Changing Your Mind with Abe Othman

Abe Othman has spent years digging into AngelList’s data to better understand how venture investing actually works, not just how investors say it works.In this episode, Abe joins host Joe Magyer to talk about portfolio construction, check sizes, valuations, and the relationship between price and returns. They discuss how much investors should put into each deal, why owning more of a company isn’t always better, and what the data can (and can’t) tell us about building a strong early-stage portfolio. They also get into contrarian thinking and the importance of changing your mind when the evidence changes.Abe shares some of the beliefs he has reconsidered over the past few years and explains why good investing often means letting go of ideas that once seemed obviously true. It’s a thoughtful, numbers-heavy conversation about making better decisions in an asset class where the outcomes are extreme, the sample sizes are small, and certainty is usually an illusion.Investing in Startups is hosted by Joe Magyer. The show is a Seaplane Ventures production.