PowerCast: Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets

How do you forecast what thousands of customers will consume or generate every half hour, then use that insight to price contracts, hedge risk and trade smarter? In this episode of PowerCast, David from EDF Wholesale Market Services sits down with volume forecasting experts Emily Short and Steve Pugh to reveal the hidden function that underpins accurate pricing and confident trading across power, gas and renewables. Emily explains how the team produces reliable forecasts multiple times a day, why data quality is everything, and the sheer scale involved: EDF supplies around 40 to 50 TWh of consumption, forecasts 4 to 5 years ahead, and looks as far as 20 years ahead for renewable offtake. Steve takes us into the renewables challenge: onboarding much larger wind and solar PPAs, building site-specific models for bespoke assets, increasing automation for round-the-clock support, and pushing accuracy further by interrogating the limits of weather forecasting and exploring blended providers. The conversation also covers tightening NESO requirements in the Balancing Mechanism and why that creates both pressure and opportunity for EDF as renewable portfolios grow. A practical, behind-the-scenes look at how forecasting helps EDF stay ahead of market volatility, support sales teams with sharper pricing, and manage risk as the system evolves.