Powering Down - How Solar Cannibalisation is Shaping Summer 2025

What this episode covers

<p>In this follow-up episode of the <em>PowerCast</em> podcast from EDF’s Wholesale Market Services team, host David is joined by Dan Wilkinson, EDF’s PPA Pricing and Valuation Lead, to explore the significant impact solar generation has had on Great Britain’s power prices during summer 2025.</p><p> </p><p>The discussion dives into the concepts of <strong>solar cannibalisation</strong>, <strong>capture prices</strong>, and <strong>shaping costs</strong>, explaining how record levels of solar output have led to <strong>record low solar capture rates</strong> as low as <strong>83% of the baseload price</strong>, compared with over 90% in previous years. This, combined with the continued influence of wind generation and growing European interconnection, has created new challenges for pricing and valuing intermittent renewables.</p><p> </p><p>The conversation covers the <strong>drivers behind these trends</strong>, including unusually sunny weather, increased installed solar capacity, and imports of cheap solar power from continental Europe. The implications for both <strong>fixed-price and day-ahead PPAs</strong> are considered, highlighting the growing importance of understanding shaping risk and how it is reflected in offtake pricing.</p><p> </p><p>Looking ahead, the episode explores how future capacity growth, particularly under the Clean Power 2030 targets could exacerbate these issues, but also how <strong>flexibility, demand growth</strong>, and <strong>on-site solar use</strong> may help mitigate them.</p><p> </p><p>Whether you&#39;re an offtaker, generator, or simply interested in the changing shape of the GB power market, this episode offers a timely and in-depth analysis of one of the most pressing dynamics in renewables today.</p>