Pre-Trading Thoughts

*Key news articles for today*Egypt is having to increasingly look to debt to bridge the budget deficit and repay its debt obligations, with the government financing gap in the next fiscal year’s draft budget up by over 25% to EGP 3.6 tn. The widening shortfall is attributed to a fall in non-tax revenues coupled with increased social spending. The days of investors trudging from government office to government office to get projects off the ground may soon be over, with the state set to launch its in-the-works online unified licensing platform next month. The exchange rate of the USD against the EGP fell below EGP 51 this week, as US reduced customs duties began to bring out relief for the market. The rebound in the value of the EGP is down to an increase in foreign investment inflows, a senior banking source said. The Deputy Minister of Electricity, revealed that investments in the project to export Egyptian electricity from renewable energy sources will range between USD15 and USD20 billion, adding that the government recently completed preliminary studies for the project and is in the process of conducting detailed and final studies in cooperation with the Emirati company K&K. The number of tourists arriving to Egypt increased by 25% year-on-year during 1Q2025, reaching 3.9 million tourists. The CBE withdrew EGP740.85 billion through the weekly open market auction, with an annual return of 25.5% and for a period of 7 days. ExxonMobil is seeking to sell its only gas discovery in Egypt, Nefertari-1, as it believes the discovery does not fit within its portfolio in terms of the reserves required to begin development and production operations, as it focuses on discoveries with reserves exceeding 4 trillion cubic feet of gas. TMGH (FV: EGP75.00, OW) is in advanced stages of negotiations to develop a mixed-use project on a 14.0 million sqm land plot southwest of Baghdad in Iraq. The project is expected to host around 45k mixed-use units and generate sales of around USD17.0 billion and recurring income of over USD1.5 billion per year upon completion. TMGH expects to receive the land by the end of 2025.               SUGR released 1Q25 financial indicators, with net profit reaching EGP315 million (+45.3% YoY. +8.7% QoQ). SUGR is currently trading at FY25f P/E of 4.9x. SWDY stated they haven't signed new industrial projects in Iraq, but they are still studying some potential ventures.