EPISODE · Apr 10, 2023 · 5 MIN
Pre-Trading Thoughts
from Al Ahly Pharos · host Al Ahly Pharos
1Q23 Earnings Expectations| Currency rate and availability play a key role in shaping profits. 1) Excluding FX losses for 1Q23, aggregated profits will rise c.20% YoY, 2) Including FX losses, aggregated profits will decline 18% YoY, 3) For FY2023, aggregated profits will rise 5% YoY, due to FX losses for some large-cap companies Stocks that will witness a spike (>30%) in profit growth YoY in FY2023: CSAG, MCQE, ALCN, AMOC, FWRY, CNFN, ARCC, ETRS, MTIE, SWDY, ORWE, ABUK, SKPC, CLHO, EFIH, CANA, OLFI, JUFOStocks with P/E 2023 that is less than 5x: EMFD, CANA, ADIB, SAUD, QNBA, HDBK, ADCI, ETEL, CIEB, PHDC, ABUK, EXPA, EGBE, SWDY, ATLC, FAIT, EGAL, CPCI, AMOC, AXPH, MCQE, ARCC, ORHDBloomberg reported that the fixed-income carry trade in emerging markets is expected to pick up steam on the back of the US economy’s slowdown and expectations that global interest rates will cool off.Egypt’s Urban Inflation reading for March 2023 should be released this morning, with consensus expectations pointing at c.34% YoY, up from 31.9% in February 2023. HELI (FV: EGP12.44, OW) plans to offer its Ghernata area in Heliopolis to investors.EAST's BoD decided to increase the selling prices of their products Pall Mall and Viceroy to reach EGP35/pack (less than 1% of the company's sales).HRHO’s BoD approved raising capital from EGP5.8 bn to EGP7.3 bn, through a 1:4 stock dividends.Finance Ministry will continue to offer loans at a subsidized rate of 11% to industry and agriculture players despite the recent 2% rise in interest rates. Savers have so far poured some EGP 178 bn into the NBE and BM's new high-yield certificates of deposit.SCZone announced laying the cornerstone for the Indian Flex-Egypt polyethylene USD110 million factory in Sokhna at a planned production capacity of 30,000 tons per month. FRA approved SPMD's rights issue to increase capital by EGP110.9 million to EGP332.7 million. Rights issue subscription will be available starting 2nd of May 2023 till 1st of June 2023. PRDC AGM approved the purchase of treasury shares.Sinai Cement general assembly agreed to increase the loan amount received from Vicat-Egypt, a related party, for one additional year with a maximum amount of EGP2 billion at an 8.5% annual interest rate.Weekly Commodities Update:Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton 335.3 -14.6%Egypt Urea, USD/ton 332.5 -11.9%WMP, USD/MT 3,053.0 -5.0%LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton 2,292.3 -3.6%SMP, USD/MT 2,579.0 -3.0%Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton 151.0 -2.7%Wheat, USD/bu 675.5 -2.4%LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton 8,806.8 -2.2%Turkish Rebar, USD/ton 690.0 -2.1%Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton 463.5 -2.0%Polyethylene, USD/ton 1,130.0 -1.7%Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton 1,892.5 -1.5%Polypropylene, USD/ton 992.5 -1.0%Scrap, USD/ton 439.5 0.0%Caustic Soda, USD/ton 415.0 1.2%Crude Palm Oil, USD/MT 910.5 2.4%Brent, USD/bbl 85.1 6.7%Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton 193.8 9.3%
What this episode covers
1Q23 Earnings Expectations| Currency rate and availability play a key role in shaping profits. 1) Excluding FX losses for 1Q23, aggregated profits will rise c.20% YoY, 2) Including FX losses, aggregated profits will decline 18% YoY, 3) For FY2023, aggregated profits will rise 5% YoY, due to FX losses for some large-cap companies Stocks that will witness a spike (>30%) in profit growth YoY in FY2023: CSAG, MCQE, ALCN, AMOC, FWRY, CNFN, ARCC, ETRS, MTIE, SWDY, ORWE, ABUK, SKPC, CLHO, E...
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Pre-Trading Thoughts
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