Pre-Trading Thoughts

FRA has approved the MTO by Aldar to acquire up to 90.0% of OCDI at a price of EGP20.00/share. We calculate the values of other real estate stocks implied by this EGP20.00/share MTO price (land value of EGP627/sqm): EGP17.68/share for TMGH, EGP18.71/share for ORHD, EGP5.07/share for PHDC, EGP4.31/share for EMFD, EGP2.44/share for MNHD, EGP9.49/share for HELI, and EGP2.79/share for EGTSZMID signed its co-development agreement for 34 feddan New Heliopolis land plot, with 50.0% revenue share; Estimated projected sales of EGP3.3 billionPACH released weak 4Q20/21 net income at EGP3 mn (-69.6% YoY); NI for FY20/21 hit EGP53 mn versus EGP5 mn last year; PACH is currently trading at a FY20/21 P/E of 8.0x and FY21/22 P/E of 5.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5xALCN released neutral 4M21/22 net profit hit EGP448 million (+21.5% rise YoY); Number of containers dropped by 11.4% YoY; Revenue/container rose by 12.3% YoY; ALCN is currently trading at FY21/22 P/E of 7.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.3xAll imported mobile phones will now be subject to a 10% import tariff; Might initially impact MTIE’s mobile phone sales volumesEgypt’s fiscal budget deficit rose to 3.07% of GDP during 4MFY2021/22  (EGP219.8 billion)Egypt's exports of liquefied natural gas increased in 3Q2021 9x YoY to reach one million tonsMinistry of Finance is studying a new mechanism for applying real estate taxes on the industrial sectorCommodity Update:Brent futures are trading at USD79.27/bblThe Egypt urea index was up 2% w/w and prices are currently at USD945/tonPolyethylene (HDPE) prices were unchanged w/w and prices are currently at USD1,360/tonPolypropylene prices were down 1% WoW and stood at USD1,340/MT Diesel-HSFO spreads were down 11% w/w and are at USD240/tonCaustic Soda continues its upward movement, recording USD901/ton, higher w/w by 6.1%Steel/Iron Ore spreads are at the USD485 mark, rising by 1% WoWAluminum prices declined 1% WoW to record USD2,680/tonneThermal coal prices slumped by 10% WoW recording USD143/tonne