Pre-Trading Thoughts

IMF: Egypt is taking several clear and specific steps to restore economic balance, and a program is being prepared that takes into account social protection measures while completing reforms.The government will announce by mid-May the “State Ownership Policy Document,” as the national strategy aimed at expanding private sector participation in the economy. Prime Minister reviewed the proposed strategy to stimulate the Egyptian economy, including proposals to attract foreign direct investment.Suez Canal revenues jumped in March 2022 to USD601.7 million (+36% YoY). Revenues recorded USD1.691 billion in 1Q22 (+20% YoY).The Ministry of Tourism is to study the collection of tourism receipts from Russian tour operators in Rubles during the coming period.Kima budget for FY22/23: Topline is estimated to register EGP4.3 billion compared EGP2.116 billion in 1H21/22. Net profit after tax budget is EGP426 million compared to a net profit of EGP331 million in 1H21/22. Factory will attain 100% utilization rates in urea (Kima 2) with an annual production of 520, 000, with exports at 45%. Natural gas cost is assumed to be USD5.75/MMBtu. EGP98 million in capex. Net financing cost is budgeted at EGP392 million in FY22/23 compared EGP200 million in 1H21/22. Suez Canal Economic Zone signed the agreement with the green fuel alliance to produce 350 thousand tons of renewable fuel at USD3 billion, and with AMEA Power for 390,000 tons of green ammonia a year.IDHC is expected to release 2021 financial results today. We expect net profit to come in at EGP1.39 bn (+135% YoY). IDHC is currently trading at 2022f P/E of 12.3x and EV/EBITDA of 6.3x. The government is studying assigning the management of some public hospitals to the private sector.ESRS and IRAX GAMs approved DPS of EGP0.8/share and EGP60/share for FY2021, implying DYs of 6% and 11.1% respectively. ECAP GAM approved the proposed DPS of EGP0.55 for FY2021, implying a DY of 6.3%. MBSC GAM approved a DPS of EGP2.00for FY2021, implying a DY of 6.9%. MCQE GAM approved a DPS of EGP0.50for FY2021, implying a DY of 3.9%.