Pre-Trading Thoughts

It is MPC Week. We expect the CBE to prefer to act aggressively with a 150-bps hike, trying to anchor inflation outlook as well as debt competitiveness on an even keel in light of global monetary tightening.Egyptian officials are in talks with the IMF over potential forms of a new assistance program, which could be either a precautionary and liquidity line or a non-financial policy coordination instrument (Bloomberg)Cabinet raised the prices of household and commercial butane gas cylinders by 7%Minister of Petroleum, called on oil companies to quickly develop the discovered fields, to take advantage of the global increase in oil and gas pricesThe Green Fuel Alliance submitted a proposal to the Suez Canal Economic Zone to establish a project to produce green ammonia with a capacity of 600 tons per day and investments amounting to USD1 billionFirst Abu Dhabi Bank is in discussions to fully acquire GB Lease; Previous transaction multiple was 1.75x P/B; GB Capital had a total book value of EGP4,687 mn at year-end 2021; GB Auto is currently trading at a FY22 P/E multiple of 3.5xThe Saudi investor, Mohammed Bin Abdullah, is intending to sell his indirect 6% stake in JUFO, through selling his stake of 12.5% in Pharon Company for Investments, which owns nearly 50.1% in JUFOORHD reported solid 4Q21 and FY21 figures, with 4Q21 sales up 61.4% y/y and 34.0% q/q to EGP3.0 billion, bringing FY21 sales up 48.8% y/y to EGP9.2 billion; 4Q21 net profit decreased 53.3% y/y and 79.8% q/q to EGP87.9 million due to an increase in provisions, bringing FY21 net profit up 127.1% y/y to EGP1.2 billion; Russian and Ukrainian tourists represented only 3.0% of ORHD’s total foreign occupancy Egypt launched a new tourism promotional campaign in markets including the UK, Germany, Italy, France, and the USHotel occupancy rate in Sharm El Sheikh is now less than 35.0%, down from more than 60.0% in January 2021; Luxor and Aswan hotel occupancy rates have risen to 60-70% this winter seasonThe UK no longer advises against all but essential travel to South Sinai and FayoumTravelers arriving to the UK from abroad no longer need to take any covid tests, Canada is also dropping travel restrictions; Negative impact on diagnostics players (IDHC, SPMD) and pressure their revenues and margins after being pumped up (on the back of PCR testing and covid related tests) in 2021Arab Contractors intends to resume its activities in the Libyan market with investments of approximately USD120 million; We await the resumption of reconstruction projects in Libya, as a key driver for contractors' awards (ORAS and SWDY)Moon Capital Partners Master Fund increased its shareholding in EKHO to 4.54% from 2.80%, through buying 19.6 million at an average price of EGP21/share