Predicting the Unpredictable

In this Institute of Economic Affairs interview, Managing Editor Daniel Freeman speaks with Dr George Maher, Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, former partner at Tillinghast Towers Perrin, and author of Economic Success and Failure in the Roman Empire. The conversation centres on Dr Maher's new IEA Substack paper, Predicting the Unpredictable, which applies actuarial methods to forecast the results of the 2026 local elections using data from 240 council by-elections held in the preceding twelve months.Dr Maher walks through the core findings of his analysis, explaining how the Conservatives held on to just 31% of their seats, Labour to 22%, while the Lib Dems retained eight in ten. Reform, meanwhile, drew its support roughly equally from Conservative and Labour voters. His model proved directionally accurate and in several cases outperformed prominent MRP polling, though the actual local election results saw both Labour and the Conservatives perform better than the by-election data predicted, with the migration to Reform falling short of expectations. The conversation explores why — with theories ranging from small-c conservative bias when the stakes are higher, to Labour voters pulling back from the brink when faced with genuine council losses.The discussion closes with broader reflections on political fragmentation in Britain, the historical precedents of party realignment from the Whig-Tory era through to Labour's displacement of the Liberals in the 1920s, and whether prediction markets and AI are set to disrupt the actuarial profession.The Institute of Economic Affairs is a registered educational charity. It does not endorse or give support for any political party in the UK or elsewhere. Our mission is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems.The views represented here are those of the speakers alone, not those of the Institute, its Managing Trustees, Academic Advisory Council members or senior staff. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit insider.iea.org.uk/subscribe