Prediction Markets & The "Big Score" Economy

In this episode, Dick and Paul dig into why "lottery-style" speculation is exploding — from South Korea's illegal 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF mania (where a huge share of active young traders are piling in despite a government ban) to the boom in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where over 96% of bettors end up losing money to sophisticated market makers like Jane Street and Citadel. They break down what an "edge" actually means (and why most people who think they have one don't), why the bid-ask spread is quietly eating traders alive, and how a growing wealth gap plus economic unease is pushing people to chase a "big score." Along the way, they connect it all to a fascinating idea from Cornell mathematician Steven Strogatz on synchronization and mimicry — the same force behind fireflies blinking in unison, viral frozen yogurt lines, and crowded Yosemite trails — and what it means for herd behavior in markets. They close with practical thoughts on how to recognize when you're mimicking the crowd instead of thinking for yourself, and what to do about it. --- Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it).