Prediction markets want to be the news

An episode of the Decoder with Nilay Patel podcast, hosted by The Verge, titled "Prediction markets want to be the news" was published on March 5, 2026 and runs 45 minutes.

March 5, 2026 ·45m · Decoder with Nilay Patel

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Episode Description

Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.

My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems.

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