Prediction markets want to be the news

What this episode covers

Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways. My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems. Read the full interview transcript on The Verge. Links: Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason | The Verge It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Frequently Asked Questions

How long is this episode of Decoder with Nilay Patel?

This episode is 45 minutes long.

When was this Decoder with Nilay Patel episode published?

This episode was published on March 5, 2026.

What is this episode about?

Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways. My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns...

Can I download this Decoder with Nilay Patel episode?

Yes, you can download this episode by clicking the download button on the episode player, or subscribe to the podcast in your preferred podcast app for automatic downloads.